[aswerfawf]

i think the scariest thing which we will discover in the comnig decades is that economic growth is finite. captialism is based on the idea of a ever growing economy, this was pointed out by marx who made the point that when it can no longer grow communism will set it. who knows maybe marx was right after all? personally, i doubt it because even the communism he advocated was dependent on the alleged existence of infinte resources (he advocated an automated production economy) but something similiar may emerge.

what is happening is the establishment of a limit to the potential size of an economy. we all know that when the economy shrinks or is stagnat for a long enough duration this is called a recession. however, because of the depletion of natural resources like oil, iron, timber, farm land as well as growing demand (think china, india and soon others) there will necessarily be a shortfall between supply and demand.

one thing which kinda bothers me about what ive heard about peak oil is the idea that demand will continue to grow. demand is dependent on population growth. but i got a proposition: if oil starts to get scarce then there will be less food available because of industrialized agriculture, since people are made of food there will be a population decline.

so: declining resources, declining population, all within an economic system which is stable only if constantly growing. this is a recipe for not only economic collapse but drastic social and political change. we will need to develop an entirely new economic system to cope with these changes; captialism won't work, it went a long way to putting us in this mess in the first place.

eventually we can reach an equalibrium between population and resource extraction. just like happens to deer or rabbits when they breed too quickly and use up all their food sources, their populations crash then grow as food becomes available again. in our case, once oil is gone its gone forever (maybe itll be back in 500 million years?) so we wont have the potential to grow again in populatino size to present levels or even re-industrialize, but it when the population crashes so will the economy.

[gego]

Where did you get the idea that capitalism is based on an ever growing economy?

Capitalism is freedom in economic activity. All other systems are a form of slavery. Throughout history when people have been free there has been economic advancement resulting from this freedom. Throughout history slavery has produced economic stagnation and misery for the masses, since their productive effort is stolen by their masters.

The great economic expansion in the USA started out as a result of freedom and readily available resources. Both the freedom and the resources are being depleted, with the supply of oil reaching critical mass soon. Once we pass the energy peak, the economic pie will begin to shrink. The government controlled economy will tend to accelerate this decline for the majority. Even if we were still a free country, the economy would contract from lack of resources.

It is a misperception to think that this government enforced monopoly/privelege economic system in the USA today is capitalism. It is a mix of a little freedom and a lot of socialism and fascism. I will give the government credit for doing an excellent job of brainwashing, however, since the majority do believe they are free and are unaware of being plundered.

[rogerhb]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gego', 'C')apitalism is freedom in economic activity. All other systems are a form of slavery.

[falser]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rogerhb', 'N')ope, you become a slave to the aquisition of the golden beer tokens.

[gt1370a]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('aswerfawf', '
')eventually we can reach an equalibrium between population and resource extraction. just like happens to deer or rabbits when they breed too quickly and use up all their food sources, their populations crash then grow as food becomes available again.

[RacerJace]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gego', '.')....
Capitalism is freedom in economic activity. All other systems are a form of slavery. Throughout history when people have been free there has been economic advancement resulting from this freedom. Throughout history slavery has produced economic stagnation and misery for the masses, since their productive effort is stolen by their masters.
...

[nero]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'O')ur economy is dependent fiat money creation from bond sales and thus has a built-in 2% inflation that steals from future labor. Without growth our system cannot continue. It implodes.

[jaws]

Capitalist economic growth is nothing more than a permanent tendency for capital to accumulate and as a result for goods to become better and cheaper. The system wouldn't 'collapse' without growth, it simply generates growth as a natural property of its function.

[nero]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'I') have no idea how money is created in Japan only the United States. You are correct about inflation in that it requires us to spend our money now and not save. But isn't this exactly the point of this discussion, that inflation requires production, consumption, and energy. So we have to outrun the past and thus we destroy the future.

[jaws]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nero', 'N')o, inflation doesn't require production or consumption it encourages it. It encourages it only in the sense that it changes the real interest rate (real interest rate = nominal interest rate - inflation). The higher the inflation the lower the real interest rate, the easier the access to money the more people can spend.

[nero]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jaws', 'I')nflation actually cheats people into thinking they can afford to consume more than they really want to. Eventually people figure it out and the spending boom crashes, causing a recession.

Kids, say no to inflation.

[MrBill]

Consumers whether they are private individuals or companies can borrow money to buy appreciating assets that they think will be worth more in the future thereby reducing the real interest rate (cost plus appreciation less interest paid) that they have to pay. Or consumers and businesses can borrow money to buy depreciating assets that lose their value overtime (cost plus interest paid less salvage value of zero or close to zero). This obviously runs against logic. Why would you borrow money to buy something that will be worthless by the time you pay for it and pay interest on your borrowed money. However, everyday millions of consumers borrow money to buy wasting assets or depreciating assets. There you go. No rhyme or reason. It must be the markets fault that consumers buy junk that depreciates? Capitalism is evil. It makes workers trade their labor for stuff they don't need?

When all our natural assets have been depleted we will be collectively poorer. Through necessity individuals will be forced to focus on the basics of food, water, shelter, heat and self-defence. Anytime two or more individuals band together or form small groups to partake in division of labor they will employ some semblance of a market in order to exchange goods for services or vice versa. Even if it is a barter economy. Under such a scenario the tried and tested basic tennants of economics will work just as well as they do today. The basic assumption being that man's wants are unlimited and his means are limited, so there is always a mismatch between supply & demand.

Even your Pacific Islanders recognized that, so even though there may not have been private property per se, you still had a basic scarcity of goods & services which is why they strictly regulated their population growth through forced abortions, infantcide, euphanasia, wars with surrounding groups, forced migrations and putting off marriage. Which by the way negates the idea of no private property, as one of the ways to decide who got to be married was place in society. If a wife and chilrden are not a sign of prestige as chattel or private property then I cannot think whether you own a fish hook made of shell or not is that important?

As we speed towards the abyss the arguments become more introspective and out of touch with reality. This alone leads me to believe that we will solve peak oil only through running out. We cannot even focus long enough on the subject at hand without talking about Pacific Islanders before their earliest contact with western civilization. As if that will somehow guide us forward? Why don't we try forced abortions, infantcide, euphanasia, wars and forced migration to try to reduce demand? We all know markets don't work?

[CARVER]

Markets can work fine, given a proper monetary system. A gift economy can work fine and does not need a monetary system, but a market system needs a form of money to work properly.

But what is our current monetary system doing, it exacerbates the boom-bust cycles. It creates higher booms and lower busts. In good times we spend like crazy, in bad times we start saving. Where is the logic in that? In good times we make all kinds of ridiculous investments because money is cheap. In bad times we hardly invest at all because money is expensive. But especially in these bad times there is a need to make investments. So what does the government/central banks do to stop deflation (which makes investing unattractive), it prints huge loads of money and dumps it in circulation to create a small percentage of inflation, in which case investing your money is more attractive. That could suddenly trigger loads of people to take out the money stashed under their mattresses and start investing it. That would cause a sudden jump in inflation. To counter that the central banks will increase the interest rate, to reduce the amount of money in circulation (taking out loans becomes less attractive, paying off loans more attractive). This instability is not something you want in a market (except for speculators). So to make sure people will not resort to stashing their money under their mattresses and thus take it out of circulation, the central banks try to aim for a small percentage of inflation at all times (policy of the ECB).

We always need to invest in our future, and it is always best to make the right investments. But all this intervention in the markets, might make it difficult for us to see what is a proper investment and what isn't. So we could really use some good advise, but today it seems you can take out a loan for just about anything. We are even encouraged by the government to just spend our money on just about anything, doesn't matter what, just keep it rolling. (The government taxes consumption, so the more we consume the more budget they have at their disposal. The more we work, the more we earn, the lower the tax rate has to be to collect the same total amount of tax income). Ofcourse that kind of behaviour will kick us in the butt eventually. The 'rich' think they are earning so much wealth, but that is an illusion. Those in debt can't pay up, and if the 'rich' will try to take away their assets they are not going to let it go without a fight. There will be too many of them. They have just let us waste a lot of valuable resources, which can never be a good thing.

Forget all the economical stats and money figures for a moment and take a look at what we are actually doing. This cannot be the smart way to do things, no matter what our price tags say.

EDIT: added a possible explanation of why the government wants us to spend our money (consume).

[untothislast]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jaws', 'C')apitalist economic growth is nothing more than a permanent tendency for capital to accumulate and as a result for goods to become better and cheaper.

[GoIllini]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('untothislast', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jaws', 'C')apitalist economic growth is nothing more than a permanent tendency for capital to accumulate and as a result for goods to become better and cheaper.

[untothislast]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GoIllini', '
')Look; try buying an undriven 1955 Cadillac and a new 2005 Kia. Which car is going to have a longer warranty? Which car will stay on the road longer? Two months ago, I bought a $15 jigsaw, and I've been using it for a lot of engineering projects. It came with a two year warranty. Something I had bought twenty years ago probably wouldn't have survived for the two months I've used this.

Despite the claims of survivalists, things made today, while they might be more complicated and seemingly more fragile, generally last longer and are cheaper than things made fifty years ago. And if we need our manufactured stuff to be more durable, we can have that, too.

If our material possessions did get more durable- and more heavy- would you be complaining that it would be tough to carry around, and go back to the light stuff from the '90s?

Any idea how much coke we use producing steel?

[MrBill]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('untothislast', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GoIllini', '
')Look; try buying an undriven 1955 Cadillac and a new 2005 Kia. Which car is going to have a longer warranty? Which car will stay on the road longer? Two months ago, I bought a $15 jigsaw, and I've been using it for a lot of engineering projects. It came with a two year warranty. Something I had bought twenty years ago probably wouldn't have survived for the two months I've used this.

Despite the claims of survivalists, things made today, while they might be more complicated and seemingly more fragile, generally last longer and are cheaper than things made fifty years ago. And if we need our manufactured stuff to be more durable, we can have that, too.

If our material possessions did get more durable- and more heavy- would you be complaining that it would be tough to carry around, and go back to the light stuff from the '90s?

Any idea how much coke we use producing steel?

[Odin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gego', 'C')apitalism is freedom in economic activity. All other systems are a form of slavery.