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Why will Peak Oil happen in the next 5-15 yrs??

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Re: Why will Peak Oil happen in the next 5-15 yrs??

Unread postby Antimatter » Thu 10 Nov 2005, 06:47:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Flow', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Antimatter', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n 2003 and 2004, no >500 million bbl fields were found!


Got a source for that? IHS says:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n terms of resource discoveries, 2003 appears to have been a better year than its immediate predecessor. A total of 46 major discoveries (100 million barrels of oil equivalent or greater) were made during the year, 5 more than in 2002. The largest discovery, Iran's giant Lavan gas-condensate find, was made in a Palaeozoic reservoir beneath Lavan (Sheykh Sho'eyb) Island. Lavan recoverable gas resources are estimated at more than 6 TCF.

Although Lavan was the only billion boe discovery made in 2003, eight other giant discoveries in excess of 500 million boe were made, three in Brazil and one each in Angola, China, Malaysia, Sudan and Vietnam. The Chinese and Vietnamese discoveries were of gas-condensate and the remaining six were oil-dominant.

In all, the 46 major discoveries accounted for more than 9.5 billion barrels of liquids and almost 24 TCF of gas. This exceeds the 2002 total from major discoveries by some 2 billion boe.


http://www.energybulletin.net/2681.html

Thats boe but the oil dominant discoveries likely had over 500mb of liquids.



The main focus of this website is "Peak Oil is coming soon" - not a reliable source - sorry!

BTW, Brazil just found an oil field in the deep waters about 50 miles off short that has about 1.229 billion barrles, expected to produce 773 million barrels of oil by 2025. (source: http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/artic ... E_ID=47265 )


World Net Daily isn't good for anything other than wrapping your fish and chips. The report I quoted from energybulletin was from IHS Energy, the holders of a respected industry database. They show giant discoveries continuing but those 1.229 billion barrels Worthless Daily is talking about were discovered some time ago! Please read more carefully.
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Re: Why will Peak Oil happen in the next 5-15 yrs??

Unread postby mididoctors » Thu 10 Nov 2005, 07:00:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Flow', '
')
BTW, Brazil just found an oil field in the deep waters about 50 miles off short that has about 1.229 billion barrles, expected to produce 773 million barrels of oil by 2025. (source: http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/artic ... E_ID=47265 )


fully 8 days of present consumption...

and 0.5% of total EXTRA oil consumption required by 2025.

you need to make this discovery every month for the next 20 years and not suffer any decline in existing fields to hit 120mbd

moreover since development time can be as long as ten years you need to double this RATE of discovery so as to have the production online

so every fortnight to be sure

another demonstration of your inability to understand its about the RATE you can get the stuff not the SUM of all the oil in the ground

STOP TIME OUT

you simply have not understood the problem... or are avoiding tackling the nature of it

so either you are a idiot or suffer from some psychological denial stemming from identifying your position with the existence of your personality ..

and thats not to say peak oil may or may not be a issue ..ie peak oil may be a non event BUT your understanding and arguments do not address anything and in-fact HIGHLIGHT the problem rather than demonstrate some other truth.

you havn't got a clue what you are on about.. trust me on this.. you simply have no argument at all, not because peak oil theorist are definitely right but because your ability to understand their argument in the first place is NOT THERE....PERIOD.

YOU HAVE NO COUNTER ARGUMENT

YOU MAKE ONE CLATTERING IDIOT ARGUMENT AFTER ANOTHER IN THE VAIN ATTEMPT YOU CAN MAKE UP FOR THE TOTAL LACK IN QUALITY BY VIRTUE OF QUANTITY ....and quantity has no virtue unless we are talking rates of oil production rather than stupid post per day..

YOUR DEPTH OF MISUNDERSTANDING MAKES THEIR POINT FOR THEM

DO YOU UNDERSTAND

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Re: Why will Peak Oil happen in the next 5-15 yrs??

Unread postby ashurbanipal » Thu 10 Nov 2005, 08:35:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')ow why in the name of God would I want to give up? I have presented hard numbers, to which a few people have tried to present contradicting numbers but those numbers have been shown to be wrong as well.


I think first you'd better explain the inconsistency in your numbers that I posted--i.e. production levels for 2004 seem to be severely, fantastically, absurdly overstated. I didn't look at the other years but they appear similarly inflated. My post is back there somewhere, and you have simply ignored it. Now, I may be interpretting them incorrectly or something, in which case all that would be required would be an explanation from you.

If you can't explain, then you haven't presented hard numbers.
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Re: Why will Peak Oil happen in the next 5-15 yrs??

Unread postby Battle_Scarred_Galactico » Thu 10 Nov 2005, 09:14:59

I think flow is an AI (the "I" does not stand for intelligence) program planted here by Shell.
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Re: Why will Peak Oil happen in the next 5-15 yrs??

Unread postby GreyZone » Thu 10 Nov 2005, 11:59:47

This is hysterical. Flow is using fundamentalist creationists who are pushing abiotic nonsense at worldnetdaily.com as his authoritative sources. That's so rich!

Did anyone actually read the article Flow linked? The author belittles modern geology by setting up a strawman that some of the Brazilian fields couldn't have come from dead dinosaurs. Sheesh. Since oil never came from dinosaurs anyway, that's a gigantic red herring intended purely for scientifically illiterates who frequent that web site.

Flow, worldnetdaily.com has zero credibility. If this is the quality of your "data" then no wonder your conclusions are what they are. This is how you "prove" you are right and others are wrong, even when your own calculations have serious and identifiable mathematical errors?
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Re: Food For Thought......

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Fri 11 Nov 2005, 01:11:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Flow', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Keith_McClary', '
')They are predicting a 50% decline in production from existing fields worldwide in the next 10 years.

See the graph on P.6 (P.4 by the page numbers):
Exxon-Mobil

2003 production from existing fields was 120 (oil & gas expressed in Millions of barrels/day oil equivalent). This will decline to 60 by 2015. We will need to find & develop new production of 100 to meet projected demand of 160 in 2015. That's almost a new Saudi Arabia every year.


Did you read that entire article? I just did and it doesn't mention that chart once. Not to mention that chart is full of errors. (1) It says existing oil fields have been in decline since 2002-2003 (not true)
The green area represents wells drilled up to 2003 (what we would have if the world stopped drilling in 2003 (I should have said oilwells rather than oilfields). The red area represents wells drilled after 2003, some of them may be in existing fields. I'm not sure what the white stripes labeled "Base Investment required" means - I'm guessing it means technologies to squeeze out more of the remaining oil.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Flow', '
')As a side note/reminder, unconventional oil typcially includes heavy oils, tar sands, and oil shale to name a few. 75% of the refineries in the USA are now able to refine those heavier oils.
Tar sands and oil shales? I don't think so. They need a lot of processing before you can even put them in a pipeline to a conventional refinery.
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Re: Why will Peak Oil happen in the next 5-15 yrs??

Unread postby Flow » Sat 12 Nov 2005, 02:49:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GreyZone', 'T')his is hysterical. Flow is using fundamentalist creationists who are pushing abiotic nonsense at worldnetdaily.com as his authoritative sources. That's so rich!

Did anyone actually read the article Flow linked? The author belittles modern geology by setting up a strawman that some of the Brazilian fields couldn't have come from dead dinosaurs. Sheesh. Since oil never came from dinosaurs anyway, that's a gigantic red herring intended purely for scientifically illiterates who frequent that web site.

Flow, worldnetdaily.com has zero credibility. If this is the quality of your "data" then no wonder your conclusions are what they are. This is how you "prove" you are right and others are wrong, even when your own calculations have serious and identifiable mathematical errors?


I didn't reference this "oil find" anywhere in my data. I just replied to a comment about "No New Discoveries made" and wanted to show that was not the case.

Take the Brazil oil out of the picture.

1) We still have 1.278 Trillion barrels of proven reserves in the world.

2) We still have over 1 trillion tons of coal that can be converted to oil (in WW2, the Germans were able to make 2 to 4 barrels of oil from each ton of coal, so assuming that technology has NOT increased since then - very unlikely - we can get 2 to 4 trillion barrels of oil from coal).

3) EIA estimates put the amount of unconventional oil reserves between 3 to 5 trillion barrels of oil.

So right there, we are talking about 5 to 10 trillion barrels of oil from THREE sources. Let's not forget about Biodiesel, Ethanal, oil from thermal Depolarizaion (should the technology ever be developed to something better than it is now). How about reduced demand due to higher efficent cars/trucks/semis.

I understand that these conventional oils are not widely used today, but does that mean they cannot be used more in the future? The reason they are not used today is because there is an ample supply of conventional oil that can be used. Of course, a very large part of the reason it is not widely used is due to the increased cost of producing these types of oil (need to sell for $30 a barrel to be feasible).

As we need to rely more and more of these types of oils, does it not hold up to logic that the cost of production will come down. Does it not hold up to logic that the technologies to extract these types of fuels will increase and more and more will be able to be extracted? This is why proven oil reserves continue to grow with conventional oils is it not? So why could the same thing not hold true for unconventional oils?
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Re: Why will Peak Oil happen in the next 5-15 yrs??

Unread postby Taskforce_Unity » Sat 12 Nov 2005, 08:19:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Flow', '
')1) We still have 1.278 Trillion barrels of proven reserves in the world.

This number has never been proven to be accurate. I could just as well say 1000 Trillion. Besides that if you look at the range of proven reserves yourse is at the higher end. World Oil and BP think its lower then that (by about 100 billion barrels). If you deduct some Middle Eastern reserves it could be even far lower. If oil companies are far too optimistic (which they usually are) it could also be lower.



$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Flow', '
')2) We still have over 1 trillion tons of coal that can be converted to oil (in WW2, the Germans were able to make 2 to 4 barrels of oil from each ton of coal, so assuming that technology has NOT increased since then - very unlikely - we can get 2 to 4 trillion barrels of oil from coal).


How fast do you think it gets to scale up a coal mining industry to power around 800 million cars + the 2 billion cars that the indians/chinese/africans want?

The energy efficiency of this technique is around 50%. Coal peaks around 2060, and this will be far earlier if we switch massively to coal. THen again ever thought about the CO2 emmissions? The pollution in creating the oil from coal? The mining pollution? The acid rain? etc.?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Flow', '
')3) EIA estimates put the amount of unconventional oil reserves between 3 to 5 trillion barrels of oil.


EIA and IEA also think that total unconventional production is around 10.2 mb/d in 2030. So please look up the production numbers instead of reserves.

Reserves mean absolutely nothing.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Flow', '
')As we need to rely more and more of these types of oils, does it not hold up to logic that the cost of production will come down. Does it not hold up to logic that the technologies to extract these types of fuels will increase and more and more will be able to be extracted? This is why proven oil reserves continue to grow with conventional oils is it not? So why could the same thing not hold true for unconventional oils?


Ever heard about environment? Pollution? Besides that did you study unconventional oils? You cannot compare them to conventional oils. They are very hard to extract, cost a lot of energy, are very polluting.

There is no one on earth living today (not even optimistic economists) with a MODEL (not with blabber nonsense like J. Corsi) who thinks that by 2030 we can have more than 20 mb/d from unconventional oil sources.

And the International Energy Agency thinks we need to put on-stream
180 mb/d between now and 2030 just to keep oil production at this level. (World Energy Investment Outlook 2003) That is the decline they are expecting.. So in the best case scenario

20 mb/d to go from 84 mb/d now to 104 mb/d in 2030. And 180 mb/d from conventional to keep current production steady. Wee were is that going to come from? The moon? Saudi Arabia? Conceptual reserves?
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Re: Why will Peak Oil happen in the next 5-15 yrs??

Unread postby mididoctors » Sat 12 Nov 2005, 09:28:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Flow', ' ') This is why proven oil reserves continue to grow with conventional oils is it not? So why could the same thing not hold true for unconventional oils?


ALL OF THE RESERVES CONVENTIONAL AND UNCONVENTIONAL COULD BE 100% RECOVERABLE YOU MORON

THATS NOT THE PROBLEM!

STOP TIME OUT

you simply have not understood the problem... or are avoiding tackling the nature of it

so either you are a idiot or suffer from some psychological denial stemming from identifying your position with the existence of your personality ..

and thats not to say peak oil may or may not be a issue ..ie peak oil may be a non event BUT your understanding and arguments do not address anything and in-fact HIGHLIGHT the problem rather than demonstrate some other truth.

you havn't got a clue what you are on about.. trust me on this.. you simply have no argument at all, not because peak oil theorist are definitely right but because your ability to understand their argument in the first place is NOT THERE....PERIOD.

YOU HAVE NO COUNTER ARGUMENT

YOU MAKE ONE CLATTERING IDIOTIC ARGUMENT AFTER ANOTHER IN THE VAIN ATTEMPT YOU CAN MAKE UP FOR THE TOTAL LACK IN QUALITY BY VIRTUE OF QUANTITY ....and quantity has no virtue unless we are talking rates of oil production rather than stupid post per day..

YOUR DEPTH OF MISUNDERSTANDING MAKES THEIR POINT FOR THEM

DO YOU UNDERSTAND?

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Re: Why will Peak Oil happen in the next 5-15 yrs??

Unread postby ashurbanipal » Sat 12 Nov 2005, 11:51:19

And for the third time, Flow, you're not responding to my point that the data you did present seems completely incorrect-in fact, it's unthinkable that it could be correct. You've no leg to stand on unless you can explain this.
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Re: Why will Peak Oil happen in the next 5-15 yrs??

Unread postby Flow » Sat 12 Nov 2005, 13:05:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ashurbanipal', 'A')nd for the third time, Flow, you're not responding to my point that the data you did present seems completely incorrect-in fact, it's unthinkable that it could be correct. You've no leg to stand on unless you can explain this.


I have presented a lot of data in this thread. What data are you referring to?
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Re: Why will Peak Oil happen in the next 5-15 yrs??

Unread postby Flow » Sat 12 Nov 2005, 13:16:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mididoctors', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Flow', '
')
YOU HAVE NO COUNTER ARGUMENT

YOU MAKE ONE CLATTERING IDIOT ARGUMENT AFTER ANOTHER IN THE VAIN ATTEMPT YOU CAN MAKE UP FOR THE TOTAL LACK IN QUALITY BY VIRTUE OF QUANTITY ....and quantity has no virtue unless we are talking rates of oil production rather than stupid post per day..

YOUR DEPTH OF MISUNDERSTANDING MAKES THEIR POINT FOR THEM

DO YOU UNDERSTAND

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It's statements like these that I am talking about. This is about the extent of the arguments I get wherever I post the numbers. Name calling and what not with nothing to back it up.

I understand what is going on. At some point in time, we are not going to meet the demand of oil with the current supply. I understand that in the next 20 years we will need 730-750 billion barrels of oil to meet that demand. I understand that "22 of the top 49 oil procuding countires are in decline now" - however if you really look at this statement close and research in depth you will realize that the countries in decline only account for about 15% of the oil in the world.
Now here is one for you. The general idea in a debate is to present points of fact that refute another persons arguement. By name calling and what not you just point out that you have nothing to refute the claims made. Though using ALL CAPS is a nice way to make your point, there is not a lot of argument there against anything that I have said with regards to proven reserves, reserve growth, new discoveries, unconventional oils, etc that will sustain our way of life for at least the next 25 years.


p.s. Didn't we save your butt in the big one? Sit down and stop calling names! And I thought it was the french that were the rude ones, who would have thought?
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Re: Why will Peak Oil happen in the next 5-15 yrs??

Unread postby Flow » Sat 12 Nov 2005, 13:25:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ashurbanipal', '
')
I think first you'd better explain the inconsistency in your numbers that I posted--i.e. production levels for 2004 seem to be severely, fantastically, absurdly overstated. I didn't look at the other years but they appear similarly inflated. My post is back there somewhere, and you have simply ignored it. Now, I may be interpretting them incorrectly or something, in which case all that would be required would be an explanation from you.

If you can't explain, then you haven't presented hard numbers.


Here are the three charts I used to develop production numbers:

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/ipsr/t11a.xls
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/ipsr/t11b.xls
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/ipsr/t11c.xls


Here is the link I have used to get my reserve numbers:

http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/internationa ... serves.xls


There is a nice summary of all this information and more here:

http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/oil.html


Analysis it and tell me where the errors are in it please.

I may have misquoted a few numbers but that is mostly because I tend to try to do a lot of this from memory as I don't have the time to look every fact up. But I come close and that is all that matters!
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Re: My second favorite misquote about Peak Oil

Unread postby clv101 » Sat 12 Nov 2005, 13:28:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Flow', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('woodcutter', 'I')f you're convinced that there is no problem, then what else is there to say?


I am not convinced there is NO problem.

I am convinced the problem will not come until 2040 or later and I would like very much for somebody to show me that I am wrong as I really can't deal with having to face ending my life as I know it in 5-10 years. I have a pretty good life going now and i would hate have it messed up due to Peak Oil.


I don’t believe it is possible to evaluate the available data and reach a defensible conclusion that peak oil is more than 20 years away (let alone 2040 or later 8O) and even such an unrealistically optimistic conclusion of 2025 demands radical action now. I see the evidence pointing to peak extraction rates no later than 2010.

A simple calculation shows what would be required for even a 2025 peak. Peak in 20 years time assuming a very conservative 1% annual increase from today (the last 5 years has seen ~1.8% growth) would require an additional 675 billion barrels extracted before peak (suggesting a URR of over 3 trillion barrels) and an extraction rate of just over 100 million barrels per day. A 5% decline in today’s 84 mbpd would leave us with just 31 million barrels of today’s extraction still available in 20 years time so we’d need 70 mbpd of new production.

To push peak extraction rate 20 years into the future requires the discovery of an additional ~1 trillion barrels of reserves (an average of 50 billion per year compared with today’s rate of ~5 billion and falling) and the identification of another 70 million barrels per day of extraction capacity (another seven Saudi Arabia’s or Russia’s brought on line). It just isn’t going to happen.
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Re: Why will Peak Oil happen in the next 5-15 yrs??

Unread postby Flow » Sat 12 Nov 2005, 13:39:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Taskforce_Unity', '
')
How fast do you think it gets to scale up a coal mining industry to power around 800 million cars + the 2 billion cars that the indians/chinese/africans want?

The energy efficiency of this technique is around 50%. Coal peaks around 2060, and this will be far earlier if we switch massively to coal. Then again ever thought about the CO2 emmissions? The pollution in creating the oil from coal? The mining pollution? The acid rain? etc.?


EIA and IEA also think that total unconventional production is around 10.2 mb/d in 2030. So please look up the production numbers instead of reserves.

Reserves mean absolutely nothing.

Ever heard about environment? Pollution?


1) It is not about having get coal to oil production up overnight (or anything else for that matter). It is about supplement the oil supply once it goes into decline. Then decline and growth, which will equal between 4-6% a year. So we only have to come up with 4-6% a year. We will not go from Peak to Zero as your arguement suggests. This is another point I have been trying to make time and time again on many message boards but everybody keeps skipping over that part so I will say it again.

PEAK OIL IS NOT ABOUT GOING FROM MAX TO ZERO OVERNIGHT!



2) EIA and IEA think that total unconventional production is around 10.2 mb/d in 2030 because that is all that will be needed according to their estimates. The other oil will come from conventional sources. Does this mean that if we need it to, unconventional oil cannot be stepped up to meet the demand? I don't think so.

3) Pollution? Coal to Oil burns cleaner than regular oil based fuel so could this not offset some of that pollution. Secondly, the reason Peak Oil doomers are not taken seriously is because they come across as enviroimental wackos who pubicly wish that the whole thing would end right now so as to not pullute MOTHER EARTH any further. Here is a question for you. What is worse, 4 billion people dying of starvation or adding more pollution into the plant.

On the topic of pollution, what about Nuclear. It is 80% cleaner that using coal to produce electricty yet environmentalist don't care about this point. All they care about is the nuclear waste that we bury deep in the dessert. Guess what, there are trade offs in this world. I have to believe most of those environmental rules will dissapear if they have to if the alternative is 4 billion people will die.

I mean for Christ sake, "Don't drill in ANWAR (granted there is not a lof of oil there but that is beside the point) because we might offset a few stupid caribou, deer and elk (that will probably be killed by hunters anyway)." Give me a break!
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Re: Why will Peak Oil happen in the next 5-15 yrs??

Unread postby Ludi » Sat 12 Nov 2005, 13:56:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Flow', ' ')Then decline and growth, which will equal between 4-6% a year. So we only have to come up with 4-6% a year.


That is an enormous percentage. How quickly are these alternatives being implemented now?





$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')I don't think so.


A statement of faith, not fact.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')Here is a question for you. What is worse, 4 billion people dying of starvation or adding more pollution into the plant.


Which will cause starvation also because of climate change.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'G')uess what, there are trade offs in this world. I have to believe most of those environmental rules will dissapear if they have to if the alternative is 4 billion people will die.


How many people will die if we destroy the Earth's life systems? Do you know anything about global climate change? Deforestation? Extinction? Clearly you don't if you think we can just toss away "the environment" and we'll be fine.
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Re: Why will Peak Oil happen in the next 5-15 yrs??

Unread postby mididoctors » Sat 12 Nov 2005, 13:57:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Flow', '
')
It's statements like these that I am talking about. This is about the extent of the arguments I get wherever I post the numbers. Name calling and what not with nothing to back it up.


WTF! every time i have posted i have demonstrated by simple arithmetic the invalid notions you have of thinking that a figure of how much oil is in the ground ...whether true or not.. is in itself representative of a solution or even the problem to start with and then retort with the accusation I do not back up my arguments is way way way way way way way more insulting than me pointing out your a obstinate idiot....

you came on here with a preconceived idea about the character of the people debating oil depletion..

"thats the sort of thing I am talking about"

and you have the bare faced gaul to complain of being talked down too
despite repeatedly demonstrating your own inability to understand data presented to you and somehow insult our intelligence by thinking that you know better

there is more than one way of being insulting .... condescension from the ignorant

jesus christ on a moped!

reappraise your self image mate because whatever it is you think you know you don't...

AND HERE IS THE THING.. its got nothing to do with the merits of peak oil theory or the issues that surround.

there are posters who argue against the the "cult of peak oil" here who actually have something to say..

you are not one of them


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')I understand what is going on.


no you don't...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')t some point in time, we are not going to meet the demand of oil with the current supply.


I rest my case....

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
') I understand that in the next 20 years we will need 730-750 billion barrels of oil to meet that demand. I understand that "22 of the top 49 oil procuding countires are in decline now" - however if you really look at this statement close and research in depth you will realize that the countries in decline only account for about 15% of the oil in the world.


lets say thats true does that address the problem...

is this statistic meaningful in itself?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Now here is one for you. The general idea in a debate is to present points of fact that refute another persons arguement. By name calling and what not you just point out that you have nothing to refute the claims made. Though using ALL CAPS is a nice way to make your point, there is not a lot of argument there against anything that I have said with regards to proven reserves, reserve growth, new discoveries, unconventional oils, etc that will sustain our way of life for at least the next 25 years.

well i think we can hang in for longer than 25years but thats not the point!

have I demonstrated too you that the sum of oil in the ground is not the problem? yes or no?

the amount of non conventional oil reserves could be 60 quadzillion trillion billion billion million barrels..... and so what?

EG does the fact that Canada and Venezuela combined have 75% of the oil required by 2025 mean Canada and Venezuela can produce that volume by 2025?

YES OR NO

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')p.s. Didn't we save your butt in the big one? Sit down and stop calling names! And I thought it was the french that were the rude ones, who would have thought?

IF you got your head out of your ass for a minute you might discover someone is trying to teach you something worth knowing

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Re: Why will Peak Oil happen in the next 5-15 yrs??

Unread postby clv101 » Sat 12 Nov 2005, 14:06:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Flow', 'G')uess what, there are trade offs in this world. I have to believe most of those environmental rules will dissapear if they have to if the alternative is 4 billion people will die.


How many people will die if we destroy the Earth's life systems? Do you know anything about global climate change? Deforestation? Extinction? Clearly you don't if you think we can just toss away "the environment" and we'll be fine.


What a strange argument, save people's lives by environmental rules disappearing? Do people not need clear air, water and enough productive land to grow food on?
"Everything is proceeding as I have foreseen." The Emperor (Return of the Jedi)
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Re: Why will Peak Oil happen in the next 5-15 yrs??

Unread postby ashurbanipal » Sat 12 Nov 2005, 17:00:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nalysis it and tell me where the errors are in it please.


Well, here is the analysis I posted on page five of this thread:

Flow,

I seriously question the accuracy of the data you've cited. Those three spreadsheets you linked to seem to present impossible data, unless i'm just misinterpretting them (quite possible as I didn't explore the website and so only have the data itself as context).

But if you sum the data for 2004 across all three sheets, the numbers are outrageous. The header on each spreadsheet says that the numbers represent thousand of barrels per day production from each listed country by month. If we take them as simply representing that on what I would take to be a common reading, and do the sums, we'd get that the world produced 712 billion barrels of oil in 2004, or about 1.9 billion per day.

If we take it that this is total production, then the world only produced 1.9 billion barrels in all of 2004. The first number is way too high, the second way too low.

The closest I can get these numbers to come to other production numbers I've seen is by taking each cell to represent thousands of barrels per month (not day). Doing that, we get 23 billion barrels--at a rate of consumption set at 85 million barrels, though, that's only 275 days of supply. While that comes much closer than the other numbers, it's still obviously flawed. We should have produced roughly 30 billion barrels in 2004.

Again, maybe I'm looking at the data wrong, and if I am, if someone could help me understand it I'd really appreciate it. Like I said, I've no context but what's in the spreadsheets themselves. But taken at face value, the numbers just don't seem like they can be right.

So do you have an answer for this?
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Re: Why will Peak Oil happen in the next 5-15 yrs??

Unread postby Taskforce_Unity » Sat 12 Nov 2005, 17:21:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Flow', ' ')So we only have to come up with 4-6% a year.


Do you know that this has never happened in the entiry history of industrial civilization? It is not like "So we only have to". It is extremely unlikely that it will happen given the gigantic investements and logistic restrictions necessary. Besides that we have not even begun to think about were the coal reserves are, who gets them, what the EROEI is and that sort of stuff. My argument never suggests that we go from peak to zero. You don't have to make this point "we" already know but you are interprating words otherwise.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Flow', '
')2) EIA and IEA think that total unconventional production is around 10.2 mb/d in 2030 because that is all that will be needed according to their estimates. The other oil will come from conventional sources. Does this mean that if we need it to, unconventional oil cannot be stepped up to meet the demand? I don't think so.


You are acting as if the EIA and IEA have only demand driven scenario's. In their latest outlook they severely changed their position. They have made a serious analysis of unconventional oil (given the resources to reserves report). This is in line with reports from institutions such as the Canadian association for petroleum producers.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Flow', '
')3) Pollution? Coal to Oil burns cleaner than regular oil based fuel so could this not offset some of that pollution. Secondly, the reason Peak Oil doomers are not taken seriously is because they come across as enviroimental wackos who pubicly wish that the whole thing would end right now so as to not pullute MOTHER EARTH any further. Here is a question for you. What is worse, 4 billion people dying of starvation or adding more pollution into the plant.


This fanaticism of yours describing me as a doomer is nonsense. I am just stating the facts in an objective manner.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Flow', '
')On the topic of pollution, what about Nuclear. It is 80% cleaner that using coal to produce electricty yet environmentalist don't care about this point. All they care about is the nuclear waste that we bury deep in the dessert. Guess what, there are trade offs in this world.


Well what about European Energy Commision saying that uranium resources will peak and run out around 2020-2030?

Sorry dude but you are way too emotional and don't have any figures straight. Lack of critical and scientific thinking.
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