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The Power of Rising Energy Prices

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

The Power of Rising Energy Prices

Unread postby MonteQuest » Wed 09 Nov 2005, 22:18:52

The Power of Rising Energy Prices

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')or 35 years, the aluminum plant surrounded by fields of soybeans and corn in Frederick County has provided high-paying, reliable jobs that lured workers from faraway states.
But now the plant's owner, Alcoa Inc., is warning the 600 employees that they could be out of their jobs for a reason well beyond their control: soaring electricity prices brought on by deregulation. The company says it can run a plant overseas for a fraction of the electricity costs at its Maryland site.

Similar forces are at work in Europe, where plants are closing. Production is shifting to places where power is cheaper, such as the Middle East, Russia and China.


Link

Saw this on the home page and thought I would invite some discussion on it.

No alternative energies, no conservation; just move operations to a better bottom line.

While this may be brought on by deregulation, it is what I believe we are going to see more of as the cost of energy rises. Peakoil's ramification's are all about the end of cheap energy.
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
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Re: The Power of Rising Energy Prices

Unread postby Leanan » Thu 10 Nov 2005, 00:06:34

Pretty ironic, isn't it? Large corporations that once called for deregulation are now calling for more government regulation. They think the cost of energy should be only what it costs to extract the coal or oil from the ground. :P

This could be pretty bad for us in the long run. We're outsourcing all our infrastructure and expertise. When TSHTF, will we be able to rebuild the manufacturing base that will allow us to build nuclear power plants, wind turbines, solar panels, bicycles? Maybe, but it's going to be difficult in an energy-poor world.
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Re: The Power of Rising Energy Prices

Unread postby rogerhb » Thu 10 Nov 2005, 00:19:36

The problem being that it is cheaper to buy horse-power from cheap energy than from people. There could be a transition point once energy is more expensive than horse-power from people.
"Complex problems have simple, easy to understand, wrong answers." - Henry Louis Mencken
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Re: The Power of Rising Energy Prices

Unread postby BW3 » Thu 10 Nov 2005, 00:31:47

In the Pacific Northwest, aluminum is referred to as congealed electricity.
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Re: The Power of Rising Energy Prices

Unread postby green_achers » Thu 10 Nov 2005, 01:21:34

In the Middle Ages, aluminum was more valuable than gold.

I throw scrap aluminum under the house. Some day it'll pay for the grandkid's college.
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Re: The Power of Rising Energy Prices

Unread postby Shadizar » Thu 10 Nov 2005, 02:55:25

I think this is a trend that has been going on for a long time and will only get worse. The bottom line is really the only thing that matters to many businesses (and why not in our economic model?).

They really have no choice but to adapt to economic conditions. If prices for labor and materials are higher they cannot compete with say, Asia...

The U.S. service economy is a direct example of that. I try to buy American but in all honesty it is hard to buy that way when 90% of products now are made in foreign countries, and made much cheaper. If you don't believe this, just take a look at the product package to see where an item is made. I always take a look.

Companies that manufacture in the U.S. simply cannot compete with the bottom line of companies (or factories) that operate outside of it. This will have a detrimental effect on the industry of the country. The "service economy" is a joke. We only "service" each other.

I don't see any way around a leveling of wages and reduction of living standard (except for the upper class who invest overseas anyway). We've already seen the effects of it in the exodus of industry in the U.S. I believe we'll see more of it as energy prices continue to go up (long term).

-Shadizar
Last edited by Shadizar on Thu 10 Nov 2005, 03:06:01, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The Power of Rising Energy Prices

Unread postby cube » Thu 10 Nov 2005, 03:02:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '.')...
No alternative energies, no conservation; just move operations to a better bottom line.
.....
Yup that's how globalization works. This is one of the many reasons why alternative power will NOT work. If there was a hypothetical country that ran on alternative power, ALL of it's industrial factories would move their operations to countries with cheaper electricity. Jeez I wonder what would happen to a nation's economy if it's entire manufacturing base got hollowed out? :roll:

Not to get off topic since the article has nothing to do with alternative power. If I'm not mistaken aren't aluminum smelting plants usually built near hydro-dams since they produce the cheapest electricity?
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Re: The Power of Rising Energy Prices

Unread postby shakespear1 » Thu 10 Nov 2005, 04:54:05

This is a good example how shifting of industry play out as the energy costs rise. Thanks for this info :)
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Re: The Power of Rising Energy Prices

Unread postby Revi » Thu 10 Nov 2005, 09:13:56

We are usually told that factories relocate for cheaper wages. I wonder how many relocate because of cheaper power? Maybe that's one of the reasons that industry stays in an area. I know that there is a lot more manufacturing going on up in Quebec. They have electricity at 3 cents a kilowatt hour, Canadian! We just bought a maple syrup evaporator from Quebec, and I have friends that buy woodstoves and soapstone from there. They can still make things, and yet labor costs are as much as ours. What's up? It could be the energy costs.
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Re: The Power of Rising Energy Prices

Unread postby retiredguy » Thu 10 Nov 2005, 10:27:03

I used to know someone who did IT work for Alcoa. He always hated making site visits to plants because they always were located in remote areas. When I asked why, he said Alcoa always sited plants where they could get cheap electricity. As someone else said, aluminum is congealed electricity.

Industries are always looking for ways to reduce costs. If energy is the most expensive component of your product, you are going to look for the cheapest source of energy. Probably in some Third World country that borrowed money from the IMF to build a generating plant.
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Re: The Power of Rising Energy Prices

Unread postby Leanan » Thu 10 Nov 2005, 10:41:24

A lot of "heavy" manufacturing has been relocated near overseas energy sources. And it's not always hydroelectric. I believe many aluminum plants are now in Africa, where natural gas is dirt cheap.

This is why the numbers that show our economy has grown more "efficient" should be taken with a grain of salt. Energy used in another country isn't counted, even if the products it creates are shipped and used here.
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Re: The Power of Rising Energy Prices

Unread postby MonteQuest » Thu 10 Nov 2005, 19:23:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Leanan', 'T')his is why the numbers that show our economy has grown more "efficient" should be taken with a grain of salt. Energy used in another country isn't counted, even if the products it creates are shipped and used here.


I harp on this point all the time. Smoke and mirrors. Just like the CPI, using SSN revenues to make the deficit look smaller, and dismissing the CAD because it is x percent of GDP, which is fudged 40% higher by CPI and "financial speculation".
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
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Re: The Power of Rising Energy Prices

Unread postby cube » Thu 10 Nov 2005, 20:33:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Leanan', '.')..
I believe many aluminum plants are now in Africa, where natural gas is dirt cheap.
.....
Maybe somebody should come up with the bright idea of building a LNG (liquidfied natural gas) terminal in Africa so they can export it. With the current prices of natural gas I bet there's more money to be made by selling it on the open market rather then using it to produce electricity for aluminum production.

But of course thanks to, NIMBY, getting a permit to build a LNG terminal in the USA is no small potatos. I bet there's a Chinese diplomat currently making negotiations right now in Africa. :roll:

On a side note: during the California energy crises power companies literally paid the aluminum plants to shut down because it would of been cheaper to pay them to do nothing rather then pay for the natural gas to supply the electricity. Ever since then the aluminum smelting industry of the pacific northwest has never quite recovered.
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Re: The Power of Rising Energy Prices

Unread postby BabyPeanut » Thu 10 Nov 2005, 21:25:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')url=http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000006&sid=ajXPNRV_Y7FU&refer=home]U.S. Economy: Energy Imports Lead to Record Trade Gap (link)[/url]
Nov. 10 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. trade deficit widened to a record $66.1 billion in September as petroleum imports surged after Hurricane Katrina disrupted production in the Gulf Coast. Exports declined by the most in four years.
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Re: The Power of Rising Energy Prices

Unread postby rogerhb » Thu 10 Nov 2005, 21:40:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Leanan', '.')..
I believe many aluminum plants are now in Africa, where natural gas is dirt cheap.
.....


There is a huge one in NZ where they import the ore and then export the metal.
"Complex problems have simple, easy to understand, wrong answers." - Henry Louis Mencken
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Re: The Power of Rising Energy Prices

Unread postby lakeweb » Thu 10 Nov 2005, 21:59:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', 'M')aybe somebody should come up with the bright idea of building a LNG (liquidfied natural gas) terminal in Africa so they can export it. With the current prices of natural gas I bet there's more money to be made by selling it on the open market rather then using it to produce electricity for aluminum production.


Well, actually, the cheapest natural gas is in the ME. And they are building liquefaction plants to meet demand. Demand can only grow at the rate of tanker production. That's why LNG is not a near term solution for the U.S. Current tanker production/use is spoken for. Today's imports run 1% of demand yet we may face much greater declines in domestic production. Mexico is now a net importer. They get it because of the free trade act. We will see if holes can be poked into the Rockies fast enough to put off our troubles.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', 'O')n a side note: during the California energy crises power companies literally paid the aluminum plants to shut down because it would of been cheaper to pay them to do nothing rather then pay for the natural gas to supply the electricity. Ever since then the aluminum smelting industry of the pacific northwest has never quite recovered.


As I understood it, the credits that Alcoa owned in the electricity market were worth more than the aluminum they could produce. It was Alcoa's call and they did it purely for profit.

Best, Dan.
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