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How the world works(?)

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: How the world works(?)

Unread postby MrBill » Wed 02 Nov 2005, 07:20:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seldom_seen', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'D')ebt & savings are two sides of the same coin. YOu cannot have one without the other. Taking on debt is sacraficing future consumption for present consumption.

All of your arguments make sense inside of a vacuum. In the real world, nobody takes on debt under the belief that they will consume less in the future. They take on debts in the belief that they will have more money (money = power = energy) in the future to pay off their debt while at the same time increasing consumption. When you take away energy inputs to the system (peak oil) you take away money (or make money less valuable = inflation).

No offense, but much of the theory that you espouse is out of some dated classical economic textbook and is one the reasons we're in such a mess we're in. We don't live in a theoretical world, we live in a real world. There is a finite amount of rocks, trees and plants (and oil!) Classical economic theory is all fine and dandy until you hit the wall.



See that is where I think you are mistaken. We are in a mess because people want to invent new paradigms to explain where we are and where we are going instead of adjusting their lifestyles to economic realities, including that many resources are finite. Believe me, I have done quite well in the real-world. I do not live in a fanstasy one. It is not me you need to worry about. Worry about the person who has debts and no savings or a deficit of skills & education. Worry about the person who relies on the welfare society when there is no real-wealth to support it any longer.

It reminds me of a debate a few years ago in academia. There was a feeling that math & sciences were too male oriented and that natural laws reflected male bias. It turned out to be a total hoax, but it sucked a lot of academics into the debate about whether the pseudo sciences were of equal value to the hard sciences. It was pretty funny in the end. People lining up to say that the old laws no longer apply. Looking for that new paradigm to explain how everything, even the natural world and physics had changed. :)
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Re: How the world works(?)

Unread postby seldom_seen » Wed 02 Nov 2005, 07:21:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'M')y feeling is that if the system goes through a serious period of correction that those who are successful now under this system will be those that are successful under any other system that replaces it.

Sweet mary mother of jesus! a "serious period of correction"? We're not talking about the dow jones losing a few points. We're talking about the possibility of the collapse of industrial civilization. You're telling me that some wildly successful comodities broker or class action lawyer who lives on the upper eastside of Manhatten is going to be more "successful" than the Amish guy who has 400 acres of well tilled crops and livestock?
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Re: How the world works(?)

Unread postby MrBill » Wed 02 Nov 2005, 07:39:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seldom_seen', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'M')y feeling is that if the system goes through a serious period of correction that those who are successful now under this system will be those that are successful under any other system that replaces it.

Sweet mary mother of jesus! a "serious period of correction"? We're not talking about the dow jones losing a few points. We're talking about the possibility of the collapse of industrial civilization. You're telling me that some wildly successful comodities broker or class action lawyer who lives on the upper eastside of Manhatten is going to be more "successful" than the Amish guy who has 400 acres of well tilled crops and livestock?



Oh sure, why don't we just invoke opposite ends of the spectrum to prove our point? Why not compare the lawyer to his or her secretary? The commodities broker to his unemployed brother in law? The Amish farmer to the factory farm laborer who gets paid $8 an hour and does not own his own land? Those who have worked, know how to work. The motivated will fare better than those reliant on the welfare state now.

All my grandparents homesteaded or grew-up on farms. All of them learnt trades as well as farmed. My father learnt a trade under my grandfather before getting a higher education and spent nights & weekends buying and renovating houses for rent & resale through good old fashioned sweat equity when I was a kid. I learned to be a carpenter before I went to university. So yes, I earn very good money now and work long hours. But I have no debt and my savings are well invested.

I do not fear the future. Whatever it looks like I am prepared as well or better than the next person. I have no problem moving back to the family farm and tilling the garden and growing livestock again if that is the best use of my time. Lot's of skills in my extended family. We'll keep the tractor running even if it is bio-diesel and convert the pick-up to ethanol if need be. It's all there. Farmland, buildings, tools, three generations of know-how, you name it?

Hardwork and preparing for the future are not skills and preparation lost just because someday in the future might look different than today. Of course, that does not mean someone might not kill me for my troubles, but that is something I cannot prepare for.

My Mennonite neighbors and I will get on just fine (no Amish where I come from). :)
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Re: How the world works(?)

Unread postby seldom_seen » Wed 02 Nov 2005, 07:48:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'O')f course, that does not mean someone might not kill me for my troubles, but that is something I cannot prepare for.
Ahh, but you can and must prepare. Talk to Specop he should be able to set you up with some night vision and a nice 50 cal. :)
g'nite, I'm headed for Z country...
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Re: How the world works(?)

Unread postby MrBill » Wed 02 Nov 2005, 07:52:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seldom_seen', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'O')f course, that does not mean someone might not kill me for my troubles, but that is something I cannot prepare for.
Ahh, but you can and must prepare. Talk to Specop he should be able to set you up with some night vision and a nice 50 cal. :)
g'nite, I'm headed for Z country...


Well, a pump 12-gauge without a plug holds 5 shells and can make a pretty big mess at close range. Used to hunt a lot of ducks & geese as a kid, too, until I decided I no longer wanted or needed to kill for sport. I would hope that emotional intelligence would keep out of that situation, but if needed help me to decide instinctively what needed to be done in order to protect family.
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Re: How the world works(?)

Unread postby CrudeAwakening » Thu 03 Nov 2005, 18:00:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', '
')Debt & savings are two sides of the same coin. YOu cannot have one without the other.

I think you can. The money supply is increased through the generation of debt. If I borrow from a bank, my debt is not someone elses's savings, it is new money created for the purpose of the loan. But I'd have to save in order to repay that debt, if that's what you mean.$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')
Taking on debt is sacraficing future consumption for present consumption. Saving is sacraficing present consumption for future consumption. Interest rates intermdiate the time value of money by discounting future values to present values.

Yes, I'm not suggesting debt itself is a problem, there is clearly a role for debt in any economy.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
') Money itself does not demand perpetual growth. It is a medium of exchange.

Money itself doesn't require perpetual growth; it's mode of creation does. The vast majority of money is created as an interest-bearing debt. This is where the problem lies.
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Re: How the world works(?)

Unread postby Mesuge » Thu 03 Nov 2005, 18:21:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ElijahJones', ' ')Think about this, is there a single decision you can make that affects the future of George Bush?
EJ


Well, there was a guy recently in the FSU state of Georgia who tried a handgranade on this wunderkind aka the leader of the free world but it didn't blast off or something..google the details. An act which I don't endorse because he is just a funny loony the real string pullers are in the background. GWB is the posterchild of delegated presidency, he is even better than Ronald for god's sake! He tops the list with the most vacation time presidency ever..
DOOMerotron: at all-time high [8.3] out of 10..
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Re: How the world works(?)

Unread postby MrBill » Fri 04 Nov 2005, 05:58:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') think you can. The money supply is increased through the generation of debt. If I borrow from a bank, my debt is not someone elses's savings, it is new money created for the purpose of the loan. But I'd have to save in order to repay that debt, if that's what you mean.


Minimum reserves are kept at the central bank, so the amount of loans never exceeds primary deposits plus interbank loans. Basel II capital adequacy rules dictate to banks that minimum reserves have to be set aside for each asset they invest in on a sliding scale depending on their riskiness (0% to 50%). Most banks do not 'print' money, but you are right, new money can be created through the fractional reserve banking or the deposit creation multiplier. The Treasury would then increase money supply to cover this increased lending activity. The money that the Treasury prints is covered by purchases of treasury bills & notes by foreign & domestic investors through primary dealers. Savings & investment equal borrowing & debt. Surplus savings are invested abroad while a savings deficit can only be covered by importing capital. Of course, there are inefficiencies inherent in the system and it is not perfect, especially if money supply starts to exceed the productive capacity of the underlying economy triggering inflation. :)
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Re: How the world works(?)

Unread postby shakespear1 » Fri 04 Nov 2005, 06:19:09

Mr.Bill

I am rather late to this discussion but would like to comment on the following.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t reminds me of a debate a few years ago in academia. There was a feeling that math & sciences were too male oriented and that natural laws reflected male bias. It turned out to be a total hoax, but it sucked a lot of academics into the debate about whether the pseudo sciences were of equal value to the hard sciences. It was pretty funny in the end. People lining up to say that the old laws no longer apply. Looking for that new paradigm to explain how everything, even the natural world and physics had changed. Smile


From my knowledge of history paradigms are always changng. There is nothing static about science. Just yesterday the Poles got all excited as they think they found Copernicus's bones. Now here is a guy that changed paradigms.

Just because we "feel" that out science today is so advance should not humble us to imagine that in the future it may look very backwards.
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Re: How the world works(?)

Unread postby MrBill » Fri 04 Nov 2005, 06:48:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shakespear1', 'M')r.Bill

I am rather late to this discussion but would like to comment on the following.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t reminds me of a debate a few years ago in academia. There was a feeling that math & sciences were too male oriented and that natural laws reflected male bias. It turned out to be a total hoax, but it sucked a lot of academics into the debate about whether the pseudo sciences were of equal value to the hard sciences. It was pretty funny in the end. People lining up to say that the old laws no longer apply. Looking for that new paradigm to explain how everything, even the natural world and physics had changed. Smile


From my knowledge of history paradigms are always changng. There is nothing static about science. Just yesterday the Poles got all excited as they think they found Copernicus's bones. Now here is a guy that changed paradigms.

Just because we "feel" that out science today is so advance should not humble us to imagine that in the future it may look very backwards.
:)


Of course, you are right. I am especially humbled by scientists and awed at what they have so far uncovered even if it is only a tiny fraction of that which is left to be discovered. :)
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Re: How the world works(?)

Unread postby RacerJace » Fri 04 Nov 2005, 08:41:54

Mr.Bill I think you spend far too much time on these forums....!
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Re: How the world works(?)

Unread postby MrBill » Mon 07 Nov 2005, 12:40:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RacerJace', 'M')r.Bill I think you spend far too much time on these forums....!


No doubt, I am already suffering from burn-out and I haven't even made it to extra light virgin oil or whatever comes after medium crude? :)
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Re: How the world works(?)

Unread postby linlithgowoil » Tue 08 Nov 2005, 08:27:05

mr bill - im glad you'll be fine no matter what happens, it must be a great feeling to be one of the 'haves'. but lets face it, you were lucky. your family owns substantial amounts of land. this means that at some point in the past, your family was some kind of wealthy nobility class and i am therefore not surprised at all that you;ve done very well out of the system.

i'd like to see how well you would have done if you came from an inner city family that had zero assets and no money - the odds are that you would have been one of the 'have-nots' for the rest of your life. sure, through 80 hours hard work a week you just might have got to university and bulit up £30,000 of debt, only to then have to take a job in mcdonalds because there arent enough graduate jobs around, and the ones that are around. or maybe you would have invented something etc.

i guess its ok when 'im alright jack' though.

me - i came from a poor familyof 5 children. i went to university, studied law and am now a lawyer. because i had no money, i had to borrow around £25,000 to do this. i cant pay this off now because lawyers get piss poor wages in my country - not a whole lot more than a taxi-driver. isnt that pathetic?
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Re: How the world works(?)

Unread postby Byron100 » Tue 08 Nov 2005, 08:42:45

sorry, double post...
Last edited by Byron100 on Tue 08 Nov 2005, 08:45:41, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: How the world works(?)

Unread postby Byron100 » Tue 08 Nov 2005, 08:43:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Byron100', 'm')e - i came from a poor familyof 5 children. i went to university, studied law and am now a lawyer. because i had no money, i had to borrow around £25,000 to do this. i cant pay this off now because lawyers get piss poor wages in my country - not a whole lot more than a taxi-driver. isnt that pathetic?


Might want to think about moving to the States where lawyers of all types make big buck$. You could always move back to your homeland after let's say, 5 years or so, when you've got a nice nest egg built up. :-D[/quote]
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Re: How the world works(?)

Unread postby MrBill » Tue 08 Nov 2005, 13:09:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('linlithgowoil', 'm')r bill - im glad you'll be fine no matter what happens, it must be a great feeling to be one of the 'haves'. but lets face it, you were lucky. your family owns substantial amounts of land. this means that at some point in the past, your family was some kind of wealthy nobility class and i am therefore not surprised at all that you;ve done very well out of the system.

i'd like to see how well you would have done if you came from an inner city family that had zero assets and no money - the odds are that you would have been one of the 'have-nots' for the rest of your life. sure, through 80 hours hard work a week you just might have got to university and bulit up £30,000 of debt, only to then have to take a job in mcdonalds because there arent enough graduate jobs around, and the ones that are around. or maybe you would have invented something etc.

i guess its ok when 'im alright jack' though.

me - i came from a poor familyof 5 children. i went to university, studied law and am now a lawyer. because i had no money, i had to borrow around £25,000 to do this. i cant pay this off now because lawyers get piss poor wages in my country - not a whole lot more than a taxi-driver. isnt that pathetic?



Umm, no. Both my grandparents homesteaded on the Prairies at the turn of the last century and got hit full force from drought and Depression. My grandfather worked in the forests cutting timber and hauling them out of the bush in the winter with a team of horses. My other grandfather road the rails from Alberta to Ontario and got a job working in the gold mines during the second world war. Afterwards he got a job on the railroad as a fireman and then a brakeman before becoming a conductor. My other grandfather became a self-taught electricial engineer and worked on the DEW line in the early 50's. My father was an electrician with my granfather and worked up north in the bush as a surveyor during school breaks. He failed high school twice before going onto university where he did quite well.

I started working construction when I was 6-years old cleaning-up after the workers. I also cleaned used bricks and sold them to homebuilders for my spare money. On nights and weekends we bought old houses, rennovated them, and then rented them out. When the tennants destroyed them we repaired them. We also unloaded railcars and did other jobs to earn money. My first summer job was cleaning toilets in the local campground, but they did not stink. If you're going to do a job make sure you do a good job!

I apprenticed to become a carpenter and worked construction during university. I worked for Alberta Housing where we provided low cost housing for rural and native poor people living up north in inaccessible communities. They destroyed their mobile homes and trailors, I fixed them. I even dug their outhouses for them. I have been on the wrong end of a gun during an eviction twice.

I studied agriculture & forestry and would have moved to the farm, but there is no way to make money on such a small farm. Therefore, I got a job and worked hard. I completed my two Master's degree only much later. Now I am working on my PhD, but only as a hobby.

So if you mean I have it made no matter what, then I assume you mean it is because I know what hard work is and am not affraid of it? Not that my family came from influence or power? By the way, my father who failed high school twice went on to become a university administrator and eventually a member of parliament. However, we still worked on the farm and rennovating houses and renting them out. My mother and step-father still do.

We have never forgotten who we are and where we came from. Sweat equity. Try it. You'll feel better about yourself than type casting me and banging away on your laptop (those aren't billable hours I hope?) :!:

:)
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Re: How the world works(?)

Unread postby MrBill » Tue 08 Nov 2005, 13:17:03

I paid my own way through university without help from my parents, took on modest levels of debt, maybe $7000, and paid it off after I graduated :!:
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Re: How the world works(?)

Unread postby CrudeAwakening » Wed 09 Nov 2005, 02:02:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', ' ')Most banks do not 'print' money, but you are right, new money can be created through the fractional reserve banking or the deposit creation multiplier. The Treasury would then increase money supply to cover this increased lending activity. The money that the Treasury prints is covered by purchases of treasury bills & notes by foreign & domestic investors through primary dealers. Savings & investment equal borrowing & debt.

Sorry, MrBill, I'm not following you here. If a fractional reserve bank creates money by lending against its excess reserves, there's seemingly no need for Treasury to further increase the money supply by printing notes. The increase in the money supply has already occurred at the point the loan is taken out.
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Re: How the world works(?)

Unread postby MrBill » Wed 09 Nov 2005, 07:34:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('CrudeAwakening', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', ' ')Most banks do not 'print' money, but you are right, new money can be created through the fractional reserve banking or the deposit creation multiplier. The Treasury would then increase money supply to cover this increased lending activity. The money that the Treasury prints is covered by purchases of treasury bills & notes by foreign & domestic investors through primary dealers. Savings & investment equal borrowing & debt.

Sorry, MrBill, I'm not following you here. If a fractional reserve bank creates money by lending against its excess reserves, there's seemingly no need for Treasury to further increase the money supply by printing notes. The increase in the money supply has already occurred at the point the loan is taken out.




notes in circulation < total money supply. The Treasruy makes an estimate of how much notes & coins are needed at anyone given time for the cash economy. This differs from the total money supply. This difference I believe is M0, M1 & M2? Obviously, if too many banknotes get stuffed under the mattress and are not in circulation the treasury might print more and cause a problem if those notes then came back into circulation? However, they are constantly going repurchase and reverse repurchase operations, plus retiring banknotes and making new issues, in real-time to keep the supply in balance.
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Re: How the world works(?)

Unread postby Bootstrapper » Mon 14 Nov 2005, 06:18:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ElijahJones', 'H')ypothesis: We live in an age when a version of economic theory is informing the decisions of the most powerful people in the world. A time when the "haves" literally own everything (including science) and careers are made or broken for the sake of money and prestige. Peak oil cannot be properly understood unless we also look at it in its proper context. Its not just a physical problem it is an economic and a psychological problem. It says something about humanity, something very profound. Let me ask you a telling question. How free are you? Are you as free as Bill Gates? Are you as free as Warren Buffet? Think about this, is there a single decision you can make that affects the future of George Bush? Is there a single decision that he can make that affects your future? Who gives the powerful their advice and what happens to those who oppose them? If you look carefully you will see that the nature of the world has not changed in recorded history, the powerful still rule over the weak. Just because they have now allowed you an SUV and a home does not mean you are not a slave. If push came to shove they would gladly see you impoverished and not think twice. American society suffers from the American delusion that the American Dream is accessible to everyone. Of course this cannot be true, there are a finite amount of resources and many people willing to do just about anything to win. How long can the illusion of democracy exist when the nature of humanity is about empire?

That is a set of thoughts with some amount of rhetoric but I have been thinking about this because I see that very often funding for science is based upon who likes or does not like your idea. Meddle in the wrong matters or claim to be able to produce information that alters someone's financial future and you will quickly find out what humans cherish, its not truth baby. I would just like to see how many of you are near enough to the glass ceiling to recognize these things. Is what I have said true? If so how can we change it?

EJ


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