[Byron100]

I've been an avid follower of Peak Oil and its ramifications for about two months now, and I've experienced a flip-flopping between doomerism and soft-landerism. It's going to be some time before I make up my mind, if ever.

But the topic I want to bring into discussion follows from this hypothesis which I'm sure many of you will agree with: When the Peak hits and we start down the other side at an ever-steeping rate, it will mean the end of free-market capitalism, which of course means severe depression and all its hardships and strife.

I would like to imagine a scenario of what the United States would be like in an energy-deprived era, and how its government and people would cope with its extreme hardships. Here, I'm presenting a hypothetical scenario of America in the year 2024, a decade or so after the Peak.

Unemployment stands at 33%. Gasoline is $18 a gallon (in 2005 dollars) and climbing. The nation's largest cities are experiencing a reprisal of the '60's riots, forcing the deployment of Federal troops and localized martial law (although they never call it such). Millions of people are now homeless and destitute. America is a broken nation, and the rest of the world fares no better. All hope is being lost even by the most optimistic of people as the economy shrinks at a rate of 10% a year with no end in sight. It is clear to nearly everyone: Something Has To Be Done. And Fast.

Enter stage left: A charamistic young governor who is essentially Huey Long Part II. (Google him if you don't know much about him, in short he was a populist governor of the 1930's who was on track to be President when he was assisinated in the LA state capital.) This man, who has already acheived extreme popularity in his home state with his government-backed community programs, has formed the new Progressive Party and is running for President. He has a Plan of Recovery which is gaining widespead support nationwide. In a nutshell, he believes the only way America will be able to survive this greatest of all crisis is through reallocation of the nation's wealth and government subsuming the former role of the failed free-capital markets by providing employment and income for the majority of the population. With his new Progressive Government in place, virtually anyone who is able and willing will now have a job doing something. However, the centerpiece of his plan is a wholesale national effort to build a sustainable society by developing non-fossil fuels, building new communities close to croplands, and so on and so forth. To pay for this, the top 5% wealthiest citizens will be "asked" to contribute the majority of their wealth, and income, investment and corporate taxes would be increased across the board at sharply progressive rates, so that it would be essentially impossible for an individual to make more than a million dollars a year. To make this work however, the US dollar would have to be locked in with the other world's major curriences to prevent dollar flight, but he is certain that other nations will be more than happy to support his plan.

However, Mr. Progressive does have competition in this upcoming election in the worst of times, and this man is Mr. L. Faire. A member of the new Conservative Party, he is campaigning on the primise that the Federal government is nearly at the end of its rope, and a drastic scaling down of government is the only possible way that America can climb out of depression. He has a firm belief that it's not mega-expensive energy is causing the depression, it's the heavy hand of government and its attendent taxation that has crushed the economy, and the only way that the free market can solve the energy shortage is being able to operate in a free and open climate, with extremely low levels of taxation. He proposes a top income tax rate of 22%, with zero tax on all investment income, without limit. To pay for these cuts,- "We're now under cardiac arrest. We have to shock the economy back into life",- he proposes a 50% cut in Social Security payments for all but the poorest pensioners, but insists that it will be temporary and that full benefits will be restored once the economy comes back to life. He also proposes that the individual states take over many of the functions of the federal government, such as education, transportation and welfare. Although his tax and limited government proposals are driving much fire from the Progressives, L. Faire has struck a chord with a wide swath of America, as he esposes the end of the dreaded Big Brother government and a return to basic American values of self-responsibility, hard work, family, and the freedom to make one's own way in life.

It is one month before the momental election of November, 2024. Each candidate has 40% support, so it looks to be a close one.

I'll leave it with this: Who do you think will win? Who would you like to win? And what will be the consequences of either Huey Long II or L. Faire running the country with their plans to fix the problem? And looking at it from a doomer standpoint, will this election be the lasp gasp of a dying republic, the depression continuing unabated regardless who is running the country...??

[Daryl]

I suggest Tom Cruise to play the charasmatic young governer. Just need a love interest and I think you've got automatic box office.

[Byron100]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Daryl', 'I') suggest Tom Cruise to play the charasmatic young governer. Just need a love interest and I think you've got automatic box office.

[skateari]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')With his new Progressive Government in place, virtually anyone who is able and willing will now have a job doing something. However, the centerpiece of his plan is a wholesale national effort to build a sustainable society by developing non-fossil fuels, building new communities close to croplands, and so on and so forth. To pay for this, the top 5% wealthiest citizens will be "asked" to contribute the majority of their wealth

[Byron100]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('skateari', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')With his new Progressive Government in place, virtually anyone who is able and willing will now have a job doing something. However, the centerpiece of his plan is a wholesale national effort to build a sustainable society by developing non-fossil fuels, building new communities close to croplands, and so on and so forth. To pay for this, the top 5% wealthiest citizens will be "asked" to contribute the majority of their wealth

[Longsword]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Byron100', ' ')
But in all honesty, if there were millions of hungry families on the streets (sure to be paraded on the TV screens every single night), that there would have to be at least some possibility that a majority would push to confiscate the resources of the wealthy...after all, why should Americans starve while millions still have million$ sitting in the bank?

[Bootstrapper]

G'day Byron100,

It's a no-brainer, as our friends across the Pacific would call it. L. Faire will win by a landslide, which will wipe out everyone else.

This scenario has been played out in a politico-economic thriller, Apocalypse 2000, by Peter Jay and Michael Stewart. A cracking good read in any circumstances.

George Lakoff adresses the question "Why would people vote for policies that run counter to their interest?"

IMO, Peak Oil is a political and economic problem, not a technical one. Those of us who live in oil-dependent societies must learn a new paradigm: use a LOT less energy (Powerdown) and resources. It's the coalition of government, big business and big finance (Govcorp) that's the disease, and it's masquerading as the cure. The cure?

Local currencies,

Local production for local consumption, and

A just taxation system

There's much to be learned from people who have alrady started the journey down the post-oil road.

Check out The Cuba Diet.

Dimitri Orlov's articles: http://www.fromthewilderness.com/cgi-bi ... sons.shtml

http://www.survivingpeakoil.com/preview ... ur_village

So, in answer to the question posed in this thread: "No!"

Paul

[Synergist]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Byron100', '.')..To make this work however, the US dollar would have to be locked in with the other world's major curriences to prevent dollar flight, but he is certain that other nations will be more than happy to support his plan. ...

[jaws]

The government poured the concrete for America's cement SUV. What makes you think they'll stop doing that, let alone actually try to FIX things?

You saw what happened in New Orleans. When TSHTF, you're on your own, and more likely than not the government will do everything in its power to make things worse for you, your family and your friends.

[Byron100]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bootstrapper', 'G')'day Byron100,

It's a no-brainer, as our friends across the Pacific would call it. L. Faire will win by a landslide, which will wipe out everyone else.

This scenario has been played out in a politico-economic thriller, Apocalypse 2000, by Peter Jay and Michael Stewart. A cracking good read in any circumstances.

George Lakoff adresses the question "Why would people vote for policies that run counter to their interest?"

IMO, Peak Oil is a political and economic problem, not a technical one. Those of us who live in oil-dependent societies must learn a new paradigm: use a LOT less energy (Powerdown) and resources. It's the coalition of government, big business and big finance (Govcorp) that's the disease, and it's masquerading as the cure. The cure?

Local currencies,

Local production for local consumption, and

A just taxation system

There's much to be learned from people who have alrady started the journey down the post-oil road.

Check out The Cuba Diet.

Dimitri Orlov's articles: http://www.fromthewilderness.com/cgi-bi ... sons.shtml

http://www.survivingpeakoil.com/preview ... ur_village

So, in answer to the question posed in this thread: "No!"

Paul

[Byron100]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Synergist', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Byron100', '.')..To make this work however, the US dollar would have to be locked in with the other world's major curriences to prevent dollar flight, but he is certain that other nations will be more than happy to support his plan. ...

[threadbear]

There are plans right now for the government to "save" you, in the form of a democratic pres in 2008 and congressional clean sweep in 2006. The good cop will take over, where the bad cop left off.

Make work programs in the form of new roads, bridges, sewer systems, cleaning up after environmental catastrophe--it's in the cards. And forget the bunk about the wealthiest 5% not allowing it. Those people are going to fear for their lives. They'll happily accept it, heck they're likely to be the force pushing for it, as many of the wealthy were in Roosevelt's time. Also, expect a repeal of the tax cuts for the wealthy. They're about to get dinged, big time.

[Byron100]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'T')here are plans right now for the government to "save" you, in the form of a democratic pres in 2008 and congressional clean sweep in 2006. The good cop will take over, where the bad cop left off.

Make work programs in the form of new roads, bridges, sewer systems, cleaning up after environmental catastrophe--it's in the cards. And forget the bunk about the wealthiest 5% not allowing it. Those people are going to fear for their lives. They'll happily accept it, heck they're likely to be the force pushing for it, as many of the wealthy were in Roosevelt's time. Also, expect a repeal of the tax cuts for the wealthy. They're about to get dinged, big time.

[CARVER]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bootstrapper', '
')George Lakoff adresses the question "Why would people vote for policies that run counter to their interest?"
...
Paul

[MrBill]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'T')here are plans right now for the government to "save" you, in the form of a democratic pres in 2008 and congressional clean sweep in 2006. The good cop will take over, where the bad cop left off.

Make work programs in the form of new roads, bridges, sewer systems, cleaning up after environmental catastrophe--it's in the cards. And forget the bunk about the wealthiest 5% not allowing it. Those people are going to fear for their lives. They'll happily accept it, heck they're likely to be the force pushing for it, as many of the wealthy were in Roosevelt's time. Also, expect a repeal of the tax cuts for the wealthy. They're about to get dinged, big time.

[rogerhb]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')ost-Peak America - Can government save us?

[Bootstrapper]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Byron 100', 'Y')ou answered "No!"...you mean you're saying no to both of my hypothetical candidates?

[Doly]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bootstrapper', 'L')ike conventional economics, conventional politics is utterly dependent on cheap, abundant petroleum and the concept of unlimited growth.

[Bootstrapper]

G'Day Doly.

Do you know of any mainstream politician who doesn't spruik growth?

Regardless of which major party was in office, has the size of government actually decreased over your lifetime?

Politics follows the same set of guiding principles that define Industrial civilisation. Check Chapter 4 - Breaking The Code, in Alvin Toffler's The Third Wave.