[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'H')ow is demand going to outstrip supply if we are headed for an economic crisis of huge proportions, globally, peak oil aside?

[Typhoon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'Y')our numbers are off. This is the third time already.

And again, peak oil is about price.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Typhoon', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'Y')our numbers are off. This is the third time already.

And again, peak oil is about price.

[Flow]

The funny thing about it being about "price" is we now dive into an area that all of the "Peak Oil" experts know next to nothing about - economics as most of the "experts" on the subject are geologists.

It is bad enough to speculate about something that honestly cannot be proven one way or another.

The funny thing about "price" is how it really has not changed over the past 30 years. I was listening to Rush Limp-noodle (Limbaugh) yesterday and he had a professor on who was talking about the cost of a gallon of gas with respect the the CGI. Basically, he said with the exception of a few peaks and lulls, the price of oil has always been at about $2 a gallon (in today's money adjusted for inflation).

Another way to look at it. The price of a barrel of oil is still hovering around $60 yet price has managed to come back to $2.05 a gallon. Accroding to the R.L. show yesterday, this is completely normal with respect to history.

And to second the notion - PEAK OIL HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH PRICE. Price has to do with the dooms-day predictions in reaction to Peak Oil.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Flow', 'P')EAK OIL HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH PRICE.

[mgibbons19]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'A')lbert Bartlett, a retired physics professor from the University of Colorado, delivered that message to members of the Illinois Oil and Gas Association at the group's fall meeting at Casino Aztar.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')artlett also presented data showing that in order to meet oil consumption from 2000 to 2010, oil workers would need to find reserves equal to all the oil ever produced throughout the world's history.

[Ludi]

I guess I'd like to know what that even means: "Peak oil has nothing to do with price."


Is "cost" a better word?

Would you agree that the "cost" of energy is an issue of peak oil?

[CrudeAwakening]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Flow', '
')We will consume 85 billion barrels of oil this year worldwide. Now with a ratio like 4:1 applied to this number, that means we have discovered 21.25 billion barrels of oil this year.

So let's assume for the sake of argument, demand for oil will be at 3% annually (it has to date been closer to 2 but China and India are needing more). 85 Billion consumed this year means next year we will need around 87.5 billion barrels of oil. We only need an additional 2.5 billion barrels of oil next year but this year we have discovered 21.25 billion barrels of oil. I also realize that the ratio 4:1 will decline as time goes on (LATOC.net states this number to be 6:1 but even so, that means we will discover over 14 billion barrels of oil in the coming year - way more than the 2.5 billion increase in demand).

[Flow]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Flow', 'P')EAK OIL HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH PRICE.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Flow', ' ')Peak Oil in it's essence has to do with when we have theoretically used up 50% of the oil that we are going to get.

The price part is a concsequence of Peak Oil. If you read the entire thread, my point has been about trying to predict when Peak Oil will happen. Somehow that got lost in the process and has become about price.

I agree, when Peak Oil happens, ONE of the worst parts of the consequences of Peak Oil will be the cost of energy going up and up, economic collapse, etc... But my statement, when taken with regards to points I am tyring to make here about WHEN Peak Oil will happen, has nothing to do with price. So let's get off economics, something I am sure nobody on here has a real grasp on (myself included) and get back to the discussion about how the hell some people say Peak Oil will happen this year if it has not already happened.

[Flow]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'W')ithout knowing which fields are at or near decline, how can you accurately predict it?

[Ludi]

Without knowing which fields are at or near decline, how can you accurately predict it?

[dunewalker]

Monte says the date of peak oil is irrelevant. That may be so, but this thread began with discussion of the date of peak oil. Flow states that peak oil is when 50% of obtainable oil has been extracted. Hubbert merely observed that maximum rate of extraction seemed to occur at or near the point at which 50% of the resource was depleted but this is not his definition of "peak oil". Typhoon states correctly that peak oil is the maximum rate of extraction. He also accepts Simmon's variation of "maximum sustainable rate of extraction". No finite resource can be produced at a "sustainable rate".

[some_guy282]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'W')ithout knowing which fields are at or near decline, how can you accurately predict it?

[Flow]

{topic merged by MQ}

"22 of the 49 largest oil reserves are now in decline"


Pretty scare when you first read it. I can be honest, the first time I read it I was scared. But then I started to question the statement so I began to do some research on the subject. Here is what I came up with;

According to the US Energy Info Admin, we currently have 1.270 Trillion barrrels of oil in the worldwide proven oil reserves. Of the list of the all the oil producers in the world, the top 10 on the list has 1.092 trillion barrels in their reserves.

That's right - the top 10 reserves have 85.4% of the proven worldwide oil reserves. Of these top 10, the only country that is currently in decline is Venezuela who have gone from 3.155 million barrels of oil a day in 2000 to 2.582 million barrels a day in Aug 2005.

Iraq, the 3rd or 4th largest oil reserves (if you count Canada oil shale or not) is in an artificial decline due to war, however, they are still maintianing about 2 million barresl per day. They have said if allowed they would be able to increase that up to 6 million barrels per day (though it would probably be closer to 4 million barrels per day).

Taking out the top 10, you could re-write the statement above to say:

Of the top number 11-49 largest oil reserves in the world, which only account for 14.6% of the worldwide reserves (which amounts to about 178 billion barrels of the worldwide total of 1.270 trillion barrels), 21 of them are now in decline."


Just not as scary!


p.s. I understand that not only do we need to make up for decline in production from these countries but we also make up for worldwide growth in demand so don't waste the time with restating that in your reply.

[dunewalker]

If you're convinced that there is no problem, then what else is there to say?

[Antimatter]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'A')lbert Bartlett, a retired physics professor from the University of Colorado, delivered that message to members of the Illinois Oil and Gas Association at the group's fall meeting at Casino Aztar.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')artlett also presented data showing that in order to meet oil consumption from 2000 to 2010, oil workers would need to find reserves equal to all the oil ever produced throughout the world's history.

[Flow]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('woodcutter', 'I')f you're convinced that there is no problem, then what else is there to say?

[killJOY]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ut we forgot that technology improves so add into the equation growth in reserves (as technology allows us to get more oil out of existing wells and drilling more wells) and undiscovered oils. As per the USGS, factoring this in, these now train of though gives you about 2.947 trillion barrels of oil left.

[Keith_McClary]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Flow', 'S')o let's go with the new numbers. I used the chart found on this page for my numbers (I plotted it out year by year by found & produced):

http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/Sec ... #anchor_75

Here is what I came up with (The first running total of 41.1 assumes that because the past discoveries verses what we have used will need until 2040 gives us an extra 34 billion barrels of oil). The produced numbers assume that we peaked in 2004.

Year - Discover - Need - Procude - Running Total We Peak Oil

2005 - 8.0 - 30 - 29.1 - 41.1 (includes 34Gb)
2006 - 7.82 - 30.75 - 28.23 - 46.4
etc....
2010 - 7 .11 - 33.94 - 24.99 - 49.72
etc..
2013 - 6.58 - 36.55 - 22.81 - 33.54
etc...
2015 - 6.22 - 38.40 - 21.46 - 13.88

According to this - Peak Oil happens between 2016 and 2017.