[Flow]

I was running the numbers trying to figure out how people have come to the conclusion that Peak Oil, it it has not happened, will happen in the next 5-15 years. I believe the reason for these predictions is because they are typcially relying on Proven Oil Reservse as their source of information. The problem with Proven Oil Reserves is it only conciders crude oil that can be extracted with current technology and at current price. This is why Proven Reserves have grown over the years from 600 billion barrels in 1942 to over a trillion barrrels today.

The problem with this school of thought is it completely overlooks unconventional oil reserves (Tar Sands, Oil Shale, etc). If you ingore these other types of fuel you could easily come up with the conclusion that Peak Oil happen soon.

So let's run the numbers with unconventional oil in the mix and see what we come up with:

Oil used to date since the beginning: 1.050 trillion barrels (BP)
Proven + Unconventional reserves: 1.278 trillion barrels (USGS)

Add these two number up: 2.328 trillion barrels

Now divide that number by two (peak oil point): 1.164 trillion barrels

Subtract out the 1.050 trillion barrels we have already used to date and you are left with 114 billion barrels of oil until Peak Oil (about a year and a half).

But we forgot that technology improves so add into the equation growth in reserves (as technology allows us to get more oil out of existing wells and drilling more wells) and undiscovered oils. As per the USGS, factoring this in, these now train of though gives you about 2.947 trillion barrels of oil left. Re-run that number through the above equation: we have 1.449 trillion barrels of oil until Peak Oil. By running out the growth demand that has been quoted all over the internet, from now until 2025 we will need 720 billion barrels of oil.

Based on the numbers above, the USGS has proposed that Peak Oil will not happen until at least 2037 or maybe as late as 2050 if we get our act together.

Please keep in mind too, these numbers to not include any fuel from ethanal/BioDiesel (could replace 20% of the oil we need here in the USA), Coal-to-Oil liquification (the US has a trillion tons of coal, China has even more) or any other technologies that may allow for even more energy

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Flow', 'T')he problem with this school of thought is it completely overlooks unconventional oil reserves (Tar Sands, Oil Shale, etc). If you ingore these other types of fuel you could easily come up with the conclusion that Peak Oil happen soon.

[Flow]

No of course you cannot stick a straw into the ground and have oil come out from Tar Sands or Oil Shale but the point is, you can definately get oil out of it.

To my understanding, the reason these sources of oil have not been used to date is just what you said "it's all about the money/price." When oil was selling for $10 a barrel, it was not economically feasible to explore these methods. Now that oil is hoovering around $60 a barrel, it is a completely different game and these types of unconventional oil are being looked at again. The problem is, what happens if the price of oil actualy falls again after they invest all that money into these methods? They are screwed so to speak again (for the short term anyway) so that is why they are hesitant to put a lot of resources into it. The same can be said of any other sources of energy - Why would we want to explore a more costly alternative when we can get crude oil so cheaply.

I also understand the implications of EROEI. Oil from Saudi Arabia has a ratio of about 30:1 or so. Oil from the other sources come up conciderably less than this but it has also been said of EROEI that until you get to a ratio of 1:1, there is a net gain, no matter how small. And who is to say that as we depend on these methods more and more, technology will not allow for a better EROEI ratio.

[Ebyss]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Flow', ' ') When oil was selling for $10 a barrel, it was not economically feasible to explore these methods. Now that oil is hoovering around $60 a barrel, it is a completely different game and these types of unconventional oil are being looked at again.

[Flow]

Well, I have to rely on the infomation provided by this link:

http://www.eroei.com/eval/net_energy_list.html

that says...

Shale Oil: 0.7 to 13.3

Coal Liquification: 0.5 to 8.2


First, what a range (and yes, those numbers less than 1 are a net energy loss).

Second, and larger point: if you look close at that page, it came from a document that was created on August 31, 1984 - it is 21 years old. I have to believe that technological advances have made these return a bit better to say the least.

But using those numbers: for every barrel of $60 oil used in the process, you get up to 13 barrels back for oil shale and for coal liqification - up to 8 barrels back.

Again, the key is with EROEI, as long as you are above a ratio of 1:1, you have a net energy gain which is always good despite how little you may be getting back.

I have read they believe they could produce oil from shale for about $30-50 a barrel.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Flow', 'N')o of course you cannot stick a straw into the ground and have oil come out from Tar Sands or Oil Shale but the point is, you can definately get oil out of it.

[AirlinePilot]

Ahhh....another Cornucopian joins Peak Oil! Welcome aboard!

While your reasoning may appear sound it's based on flawed information. Your numbers about how oil reserves and thier amounts may be right, but the problem I see is that if you look back over the last 15-20 years those numbers have not gone up like they did from the 1940's until say the mid 60's.

We aren't finding and drilling enough to keep pace with demand and depletion. I think Monte is quite right, but I also point out that its also an issue of time. If some miracle energy source breaks onto the scene, or they figure out how to burn dirt or something we might just be ok. Until then, we dont have a whole lot of time left until we are in big trouble as an economy.

A viable GLOBAL ECONOMY will be needed to get from our fossil fuel dependency to something else. IF your wordwide economic engine is based on having cheap OIL, when it's gone the growth will stop. IF the whole house of cards is based on growth, well you can see where I am going, it will get ugly really fast.

These arguments are not new to the crowd here. If you do some searching and read ALL the required reading in the sticky threads a lot of what your thinking just might change.

Personally I'm rapidly becoming a Doomer, technology might save us, but it better hurry up and figure out something QUICK!!

[Flow]

Here are a few questions I have about the "numbers" that AirlinePilot mentioned. I have asked this before from other people on other boards, and have yet to get an answer back. So I will ask it again and see if I can get a response because I would truly like to know (as everywher I look, you get a new answer).

How much oil do we have left now?


How much can we reasonably expect to discover?


How much can we get from all of the unconventional sources?


Please do not submit infomation that was recieved from websites that will have their main focus on Peak Oil. I want hard, statistical data from reputable sources.

My point on this is at first glance, the LATOC.net website can scare the hell out of you, but when you start looking at all of the links that are embedded in the text, you start to see a parter (a lot of peakoil.net, peakoil.com, From The Wilderness, EnergyBulletin.net, etc). It is hard to get an unbiased view about peak oil by almost exclusively relying on data provided by Peak Oil advocates. The same can said of the majority of Peak Oil articles.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Flow', 'H')ere are a few questions I have about the "numbers" that AirlinePilot mentioned. I have asked this before from other people on other boards, and have yet to get an answer back. So I will ask it again and see if I can get a response because I would truly like to know (as everywher I look, you get a new answer).

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')ow much oil do we have left now?

[Flow]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')
Not enough to keep pace with demand. We use 4 barrels for each one we discover now. Discovery peaked in 1960's.

[Flow]

Oh yeah, and this does not account for the fact that technologies are being advanced to get even more our of existing wells (worldwide proven reserves have increased steadily in the past 50 years for this very reason).

It also does not account for the fact that worldwide Peak Oil has not happened yet so existing wells still have the ability to grow based on current technology and price.

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Flow', 'N')ow I understand that it takes roughly 7-10 years to get this oil online and producing but my point is new discoveries will supplement our upcoming demand for years to come. The current growth is being supplemented by discoveries made 10 years ago (when the ratio was probably closer to 2:1 or 3:1).

I am not debating Peak Oil - it will happen eventually just not anytime in the next 10 years. So my ultimate point is, it has been said that it would take 20 years to replace our need for oil.

We have 20 years (if not more) so let's get our act together!

[Typhoon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Flow', 'W')e will consume 85 billion barrels of oil this year worldwide. Now with a ratio like 4:1 applied to this number, that means we have discovered 21.25 billion barrels of oil this year.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Flow', ' ')We will consume 85 billion barrels of oil this year worldwide. Now with a ratio like 4:1 applied to this number, that means we have discovered 21.25 billion barrels of oil this year.

[MonteQuest]

Albert Bartlett, a retired physics professor from the University of Colorado, delivered that message to members of the Illinois Oil and Gas Association at the group's fall meeting at Casino Aztar.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')artlett also presented data showing that in order to meet oil consumption from 2000 to 2010, oil workers would need to find reserves equal to all the oil ever produced throughout the world's history.

[Flow]

My appologies, you are all right - I mixed those numbers up. We consume 30 billion barrels of oil a year, 85 million a day.

So let's go with the new numbers. I used the chart found on this page for my numbers (I plotted it out year by year by found & produced):

http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/Sec ... #anchor_75

Here is what I came up with (The first running total of 41.1 assumes that because the past discoveries verses what we have used will need until 2040 gives us an extra 34 billion barrels of oil). The produced numbers assume that we peaked in 2004.

Year - Discover - Need - Procude - Running Total We Peak Oil

2005 - 8.0 - 30 - 29.1 - 41.1 (includes 34Gb)
2006 - 7.82 - 30.75 - 28.23 - 46.4
etc....
2010 - 7 .11 - 33.94 - 24.99 - 49.72
etc..
2013 - 6.58 - 36.55 - 22.81 - 33.54
etc...
2015 - 6.22 - 38.40 - 21.46 - 13.88


According to this - Peak Oil happens between 2016 and 2017.


This of course does not account for any offsets from conservation, other sources of power helping (solar, wind,etc), Biodiesel, Ethanal, Coal to Oil liquification, and anything else that may be developed in the future to help easy our dependance on fuel from the ground. Plus it does not take into account that new technologies will be developed to extract even more oil from the existing wells has been the case over the past 50 years.

So I will stick with my original suggestion that Peak Oil will not happen until 2037 at the earliest if not later.

[MonteQuest]

Your numbers are off. This is the third time already.

And again, peak oil is about price.

[some_guy282]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')And again, peak oil is about price.

[threadbear]

How is demand going to outstrip supply if we are headed for an economic crisis of huge proportions, globally, peak oil aside? Demand destruction will keep prices trading in a narrow margin, between 45.00 and 60.00. Absolutely no need to panic. It will be a generation or two, before we climb out of poverty, at which point, there will be alternatives. Who in their right mind thinks that China, a country particularly vulnerable to oil shocks, isn't working on some Manhattan type project right now to come up with alternatives?

[smiley]

This is the 2005 forecast from the Canadian association of petroleum producers. I would say that is a pretty unbiased source.

http://www.capp.ca/raw.asp?x=1&dt=NTV&e=PDF&dn=89357

In it is the forecasted impact of the oil sands on the Canadian oil production. Now Canada is the biggest player in this field. It is the Saudi Arabia and the Russia of the oil sands.

Yet they estimate that between now and 2015 the Canadian oil output will increase by a meagre 1 million barrels a day due to the oil sands extraction. That is about 100.000 bpd a year, barely enough to cover the projected decline of say Norway (at the moment 60.000 bpd a year).

Oil sands are not going to safe the day.