[BabyPeanut]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')url=http://www.fcnp.com/534/peakoil.htm]The Peak Oil Crisis:
Waiting for Winter (link)[/url] By Tom Whipple:

In the fourth quarter, worldwide demand for oil goes up by 2.5 million barrels per day over summer demand to keep the northern latitudes warm during the winter months. Given that we might have an unusually cold winter this year, the demand increase might be conservative.

The Chinese government recently announced their economy is going to grow another nine or ten percent this year. Maybe they have figured out how to grow without increasing their oil consumption. If they expect in keep this up, their oil imports should start increasing The US economy is still bouncing along fairly well with predictions of pretty good growth next year. More oil needed!

Although many of our flooded refineries are getting back into operation, about a million barrels per day of refining capacity has not yet recovered from the hurricanes. Two-thirds of our Gulf oil production is still shutdown and it’s beginning to look as if government predictions that all will be well in the Gulf by Christmas are optimistic. In Iraq , the insurgents continue to blow up oil pipes at a steady pace and it is only a matter of time before they figure out how to shut down production completely. The shipments of refined gasoline to the US from our fellow International Energy Agency members will soon be drawing to a close. The first signs of serious inflation are beginning to stir.

Despite all this bullish-for-oil news however, prices have dropped some 15 percent since the Katrina peak of over $70 dollars. Wall Street oil traders and analysts are starting to tell financial reporters that the hurricane dislocations are over for a while and the good times may roll for a while longer. Indeed earlier this week the Dow flew up 170 points on the idea that our oil problems no longer look as bad as they did a few weeks ago.

Where did all this optimism come from? Is it justified? The root cause, of course, is

[AirlinePilot]

Does anyone have any idea/links to info on when we see the decline or end to the gasoline shipments? I see that as a big deal come the short term. That coupled with the emphassis on gas production vice heating oil after Katrina is going to really hurt if the weather doesn't cooperate this winter.

[gt1370a]

Thanks for this post. One thing he does not consider is that, although a major supply problem exists, traders may anticipate that demand will be reduced. Numbers on unemployment, housing, inflation, etc. provide a blurry picture on all of this. If there is a recession and demand drops to 80 Mb/day or less, then I guess oil would be pretty significantly overpriced right now.

Following the recent drop to $60, one trader said "We're trading demand now, not supply." The only thing I can figure is that these guys are expecting a major economic slowdown. The run-up in gold to over $470 happened at the same time and indicates the same thing. And when companies like Exxon say they won't invest more in refineries, exploration, or alternatives, that may also be an indicator that they expect demand to drop. I dunno. Those guys aren't stupid and they're all aware of the things Whipple mentions in his article.

[BabyPeanut]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gt1370a', 'O')ne thing he does not consider is that, although a major supply problem exists, traders may anticipate that demand will be reduced.

[BabyPeanut]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'D')oes anyone have any idea/links to info on when we see the decline or end to the gasoline shipments?

[AirlinePilot]

Thanks Peanut, I'm assuming that this is an open ended thing and that at some point they will just shut it off. Will be interesting to see when and under what circumstances this will occur.

[gt1370a]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BabyPeanut', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gt1370a', 'O')ne thing he does not consider is that, although a major supply problem exists, traders may anticipate that demand will be reduced.

[SD_Scott]

A lot of the pipeline terminals in this country have what's called floating roof tanks. The roof of the tank floats on pontoons on top of the product. This is so there is no vapor space to combust. The roof therefore looks like the top of a piston and moves up and down with the level of the product. However some percentage of them are cone roofed tanks and hide the level. If you knew where the terminals were you could get a sattelite view and instantly know what the general inventory of that terminal was.

The pipeline I worked on for seven years is called the blue and gold line. It's owned and operated by Conoco/Phillips. It goes from Borger Texas to East Chicago Indiana. The two biggest terminals are in East Saint Louis Illinois and East Chicago Indiana.

Yes I meant Illinois and Indiana

[Bleep]

Tom Whipple's columns are normally run in a small newspaper called the Falls Church News-Press. His columns are frequently carried by http://energybulletin.net/ which the VOA article relates to:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')url=http://www.voanews.com/english/2006-05-01-voa34.cfm]World Oil Price Peak Disputed (link)[/url]
... Tom Whipple writes and edits for an international energy newsletter outside Washington, D.C. In the past year he has written over 50 columns about the likely impact of what has been called "Peak Oil."

“What 'Peak Oil' means is that we are about halfway through all the oil under the earth."

More importantly, says Whipple, most of what is left will likely be far more difficult to extract than has been the case up to now. "It really does not matter too much how much is under the earth if you cannot get it out and get it to your gas station."

Whipple says that means energy prices are likely to remain high until alternative fuels can be developed, and/or human activities altered to lessen our dependence on petroleum. That transition -- the "Peak Oil" transition -- could take decades. And in the meantime? "Nobody really knows what is going to happen -- nobody has any idea what the world is going to look like as we transition from the oil age to, call it the 'post-oil age,' because it has never happened before." ...

... Mr. Whipple says, "Right now we are seeing an awful lot of the world's airlines encountering a great big problem. A number of the smaller ones are really on the verge of re-structuring themselves." ...

[Heineken]

This is certainly noteworthy, considering that VOA is a government-owned tool of the neocons.

[Justamom]

This is from Falls Church Virginia.

http://www.fcnp.com/614/peakoil.htm

here was an interesting snippet from this article...

" During the past year, a pair of internal company documents were leaked in Mexico and Kuwait . The Mexican document suggests that production from the giant Cantarell oil field from which the US imports 1.6 million barrels a day is about to collapse catastrophically. In the case of Kuwait , the leaked study claims that the country's oil reserves may only be 25 to 50 percent of the official number. In the meantime, Kuwait has announced that production from their giant Burgan oil field has started to decline. "

Im glad a "local" news source is keeping PO in sight for everyone, accurate or not , at least it's out there and maybe peeps will investigate.

[dinopello]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Justamom', '
')
here was an interesting snippet from this article...

" During the past year, a pair of internal company documents were leaked in Mexico and Kuwait . The Mexican document suggests that production from the giant Cantarell oil field from which the US imports 1.6 million barrels a day is about to collapse catastrophically. In the case of Kuwait , the leaked study claims that the country's oil reserves may only be 25 to 50 percent of the official number. In the meantime, Kuwait has announced that production from their giant Burgan oil field has started to decline. "

[fireplaceguy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dinopello', '
')
This doesn't sound good at all.

[Keymaster]

The mainstream media does many disservices to the American Public. I liken one element of MSM propaganda to rabies. Media outlets pounce on a story that the American public, the U.S. govt and American corporations perceive to be important, then clamp their jaws on the jugular. Meanwhile, truly meaningful stories, often perceived as negative to American interests, or too complicated for the everyday Joe to grasp, are barely - if at all - mentioned.

Case in point. Watching the routers at CNN yesterday morning, and generally listening to CNNI, American Morning, Live Today and Live From, I counted more than 1,000 mentions of Zarqawi's death.

Not one mention of the Russian oil bourse and its potentially devestating implications, should other countries in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation follow suite.

Zarqawi: 1,000+ Russian oil bourse and the SCO: 0

Talk about a spanking. Shouldn't there be, like in baseball, oh I don't know, a 100 mention rule or something?

Keymaster

[Keymaster]

And, I might add, there is a certain unpleasant irony in the "Fourth Estate," the "free press" and other MSM monikers. American media outlets are supposed to be the bridge between government policy, principle (or lack thereof) and public awareness. We are responsible for educating the American public so they can make informed voting decisions. We are responsible as a check against government corruption.

Shamefully, we have failed you.

Keymaster

[BMW_rider]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Keymaster', 'T')he mainstream media does many disservices to the American Public. I liken one element of MSM propaganda to rabies. Media outlets pounce on a story that the American public, the U.S. govt and American corporations perceive to be important, then clamp their jaws on the jugular. Meanwhile, truly meaningful stories, often perceived as negative to American interests, or too complicated for the everyday Joe to grasp, are barely - if at all - mentioned.

Case in point. Watching the routers at CNN yesterday morning, and generally listening to CNNI, American Morning, Live Today and Live From, I counted more than 1,000 mentions of Zarqawi's death.

Not one mention of the Russian oil bourse and its potentially devestating implications, should other countries in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation follow suite.

Zarqawi: 1,000+ Russian oil bourse and the SCO: 0

Talk about a spanking. Shouldn't there be, like in baseball, oh I don't know, a 100 mention rule or something?

Keymaster

[peaker_2005]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Keymaster', 'g')overnment policy, principle (or lack thereof)

Keymaster

[skeptik]

Tom Whipple is a retired CIA analyst (married to a Virgina Senator) who has been writing a column on Peak Oil for a small local paper, The Falls Church News Press, for the last 2 years, and also produces a newsletter for ASPO-USA.

He talks about Peak Oil for just over an hour to George Kenney, retired State Department analyst and who now runs the Electric Politics website.

http://www.electricpolitics.com/podcast ... _drop.html

[Bleep]

http://www.electricpolitics.com/podcast ... _drop.html

Tom Whipple, a retired senior CIA analyst writes Peak Oil articles for a tiny newspaper, The Falls Church News Press.

[Bleep]

Some transcripting:$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '3')0 minutes 28 seconds into the interview:

Tom Whipple: I sort of think there's a possibility that, you know, the Saudi's could, you know...what leverage they have over the US? Nothing but oil.

George Kenney: yeah

Tom Whipple: [...] What do the Saudis want? The want the US to [...] stay in Baghdad from now until this thing is settled even if it takes a hundred years.

George Kenney: Isn't that a dilemma? Wow.

Tom Whipple: Yeah, isn't that a great dilemma. They do not want us to leave. What hold do they have over us? Well that's quite easy--the oil thing. Can they increase oil production? No. Can they shut it off? Sure, that's easy, just turn the valve.

George Kenney: mm-hmm.

Tom Whipple: They shut it off. Does it cost them anything? No, because the price will triple. They could cut the production in half and the price would triple--overnight. [...] Personally, I think they are putting the screws on us right now.