[DamienJasper]

Isn't Deffeys peak just days or weeks from now? So for those telling me to be hopeful...why? If Peak is next month, there's no time.

[skateari]

Nobody will really know what we are in for until a year or two after the peak. There will just be no way to PROVE we are in terminal decline, until after a few years of steady decline, however like we all know on this site, once we are past the peak its only downhill from then on out. But many other people do not (want) to understand this fact. So, indeed industrial society as we know it today may function for a few years after peak, maybe not. Economic hardships, depressions, wars, and the general beginning on the collapse may appear soon after, as prices rise and people realize the scarcity issue.

I give us some hope to still prepare. Im at the phase #1, we have the land. Acreage in Costa Rica, perfect growing climate, wonderful town, great beaches. But I have not even started on setting up my preparation plans. Im hoping for at least another year or two, at least in another country. As long as I keep my assets safe (away from the dollar) to some degree, I may be able to ride out and continue preparations in another country.

If you cant get any land for growing crops, or a reasonable place for survival/sustainable use, then there are many other small things you can do such as; keep and maintain a weapon for future use, think long term. Use this knowledge that you now know to make investments; read books about sustainable gardening practices, how to purify water, or gain some skills that you see needed in a post peak world. Stock some preserved food, materials needed to treat water, keep/read survival books. Think about how to separate yourself from the rest of the world as much as you could (help become self reliant) so when something happeneds; you may be in a much better situation.

[DamienJasper]

Thanks for the reply, but I don't understand why every post of mine eventually comes back to a discussion about gardening. Just wondering about anyone else's view on Deffey's peak in a couple of weeks.

[jato]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')sn't Deffeys peak just days or weeks from now?

[DamienJasper]

No offense, but that post really didn't add much. It's a rhetorical question.

[jato]

What would you like me to say? What was/is your question?

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DamienJasper', 'I')sn't Deffeys peak just days or weeks from now? So for those telling me to be hopeful...why? If Peak is next month, there's no time.

[perplexd]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DamienJasper', 'I') don't understand why every post of mine eventually comes back to a discussion about gardening.

[bobcousins]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DamienJasper', 'I')sn't Deffeys peak just days or weeks from now? So for those telling me to be hopeful...why? If Peak is next month, there's no time.

[Jake_old]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')sn't Deffeys peak just days or weeks from now? So for those telling me to be hopeful...why? If Peak is next month, there's no time.

[bobbyald]

Yes, Peak Oil is only a milestone.

In itself it means very little. The real questions are: When will demand for oil exceed supply? How high will oil prices then go? What form of demand destruction will then occur? Who will suffer and by how much?

We know PO is real but we have no idea when a crisis will occur and what form it will take. We know our lives will change but how, when and by how much is all open to debate. It will affect the geopolitical landscape, the environment, the economy and a lot more.

My advice: Don’t panic – Do some gardening

[Eli]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bobbyald', 'Y')es, Peak Oil is only a milestone.

My advice: Don’t panic – Do some gardening

[deconstructionist]

Sadad Al Huseini (former head of exploration and production for Aramco) has said that he believes the plateau will come at about 90-95 mbpd. we're still a few years off from that. hopefully by then i'll have s a house and some land so i can do some gardening (sorry, had to).

[thuja]

man i love gardening- big bushy kale, yummy sweet thick carrots, chunky russets; just get me out back...

[Trab]

Keep in mind that the 'Peak' will most likely be more of a bumpy plateau of sorts. I wouldn't be surprised if we spend several years hitting a maximum production limit before we start seeing any signs of a real decline.

Deffeyes' prediction of Thanksgiving 2005 as the peak is probably more of a rhetorical device to get people thinking about the issues before us than a firm prediction of when the bottom's going to drop out of the petroleum numbers.

Prepare as you see fit, but I wouldn't bother panicking about that. Economic metldown or bird flu are more likely to hit us in the US first, and even those things are not givens.

[DamienJasper]

Thanks for your replies.

But Mr. Deffeys seems to be waffling back and forth. I could have sworn that he said something like "That was a tongue in cheek date" or something similar in order to get people to snap to. But in the Times Article posted recently (Peak Oil Is Here/Oil Is Here To Stay with Peter Huber as well) he doesn't seem so tongue in cheekish. Not sure what to make of him.

But your guys' input means a lot to me. Thanks again.

[DamienJasper]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Eli', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bobbyald', 'Y')es, Peak Oil is only a milestone.

My advice: Don’t panic – Do some gardening

[Novus]

Here is what Kenneth Deffeyes wrote in Time October 31 issue

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')
It's the End of Oil

World oil production is about to reach a peak and go into its final decline. For years, a handful of petroleum geologists, including me, have been predicting peak oil before 2007, but in an era of cheap oil, few people listened. Lately, several major oil companies seem to have got the message. One of Chevron's ads says the world is currently burning 2 bbl. of oil for every barrel of new oil discovered. ExxonMobil says 1987 was the last year that we found more oil worldwide than we burned. Shell reports that it will expand its Canadian oil-sands operations but elsewhere will focus on finding natural gas and not oil. It sounds as though Shell is kissing the oil business goodbye. M. King Hubbert, a geophysicist, correctly predicted in 1956 that oil production in the U.S. would peak in the early 1970s--the moment now known as "Hubbert's Peak." I believe world oil production is about to reach a similar peak.

Finding oil is like fishing in a pond. After several months, you notice that you are not catching as many fish. You could buy an expensive fly rod--new technology. Or you could decide that you have already caught most of the fish in the pond. Although increased oil prices (which ought to spur investment in oil production) and new technology help, they can't work magic. Recent discoveries are modest at best. The oil sands in Canada and Venezuela are extensive, but the Canadian operations to convert the deposits into transportable oil consume large amounts of natural gas, which is in short supply.

And technology cannot eliminate the difficulty Hubbert identified: the rate of producing oil depends on the fraction of oil that has not yet been produced. In other words, the fewer the fish in the pond, the harder it is to catch one. Peak production occurs at the halfway point. Based on the available data about new oil fields, there are 2,013 billion bbl. of total producible oil. Adding up the oil produced from the birth of the industry until today, we will reach the dreaded 1,006.5-billion-bbl. halfway mark late this year. For two years, I've been predicting that world oil production would reach its peak on Thanksgiving Day 2005. Today, with high oil prices pushing virtually all oil producers to pull up every barrel they can sweat out of the ground, I think it might happen even earlier.

Kenneth Deffeyes is the author of Beyond Oil (Farrar, Straus & Giroux; 224 pages)

[Eli]

I have no idea how long the plateau will last but I do think that a deep recession could change how long the plateau would be. I think it will be a bumpy plateau that will last a lot longer than you or I would have guessed.

I think because of the way the market works oil may spike to 100 in a barrel and that will go a very long way to forcing people to make the painful changes necessary. But as soon as we see a spike people will get scared stop driving as much and we will see lots of demand destruction.

Heck we could see another big spike this winter and next thing you know you will be putting in a wood burner for heat.

Progress will be made in fits and starts.

[Dezakin]

5-10 trillion tons of coal dont exist I suppose. We're not even turning coal into diesel yet so I doubt we're close to the end of peak hydrocarbons.

What is important? Peak sweet light? peak sour? Peak fossil fuel?