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PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

"Pick" apart my analogy before I publish

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: "Pick" apart my analogy before I publish

Unread postby Heineken » Mon 24 Oct 2005, 14:09:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('killJOY', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')As the lowest-hanging, reddest, finest apple trees begin to 'deplete' . . . ."
Yes, this is confusing. I was trying to maintain my earlier connection "tree" = "oilfield"; so oilfields deplete, trees deplete.

This is the problem with devising analogies: the terminologies don't often blend well.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')As the lowest-hanging, reddest, finest apples begin to 'deplete' . . . ."
Thanks for pointing that out.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')ore apple trees can always be planted; more oil fields can't be. A whole new crop of apples comes in every year, and with good husbandry, it can be larger and better than the previous year's crop. Oil is about to go into terminal decline.
This is indeed the critical distinction I'm going to have to highlight better than that last passage.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'a')re the best-quality apples always on the lowest limbs?
No. I will change "quality" to "easiest."


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EA', 'Y')ou just need to explain that the harvesting season is relatively short, (200 years), while the winter/spring is on the level of a few million years... We'll have a long wait for the next harvest.


Oh, now I LIKE that! Hmmm....

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'H')ow is oil renewable?


I read EA's comment as [irony]...[/irony]


Like a metaphor or a simile, an analogy either works well or it doesn't work at all, killjoy. The more I think about it, the more it seems to me that you're trying to force a square peg to fit a round hole. I know it's hard to face that fact after you've gone to the trouble to write something---something that reads well, BTW. But if I were you (and I know, I'm not), I would try to come up with a better analogy and go back to the drawing board, while perhaps salvaging some of the material from the apple orchard piece.
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Re: "Pick" apart my analogy before I publish

Unread postby Heineken » Mon 24 Oct 2005, 14:17:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('falser', 'I') was thinking what is a better analogy for the current oil situation. The best I could come up with is the California Gold Rush. In the beginning, gold could be mopped up from rivers and streams with little work. The gold itself was cheap because it could be found easily with cheap labor, but the prices of everything else starting to skyrocket - food, clothing, tools etc. Once all the easy to find gold was mined, big companies came in with sophisticated systems. They diverted rivers in order to strip mine the riverbeds. They water blasted rocks away. They had to completely wreak havoc on the ecosystems in order to find more gold. The independent laborers eventually didn't make enough money from the gold they found. It just become too expensive for so little profit. I think it's very similar to how easily oil was found back in the 1800's across America - just poke a drill in the ground and you'd have a geyser. But these days we have offshore oil rigs drilling thousands of feet into the seabed and then another thousand horizontally, or we strip mine a hundred thousand acres of Alberta and cook tar out of sand in order to produce oil.


I don't know. Without elaborating overmuch, in some ways I like the gold analogy better than the apple one, and in some ways I like it less.

The main problem with the apple analogy is that apples are a living, renewable resource and oil isn't. That sets up a whole chain of difficulties that to me ultimately KO's the apple analogy. Gold, like oil, at least is relatively inert.

Gold, on the other hand, is and has always been and will always be quite scarce on a global scale. Also, it's not very useful or necessary.

Oil seems like a unique resource with unique constraints and unique applications. Maybe there is no good analogy.
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