[ohanian]

To paraphrase William Gibson.

Peak Oil is already here. It's just not evenly distributed.


Some areas are already experiencing the effects of "peak oil" on their society while other areas will merely experience some minor discomforts.

If this crazy assumption is true then we can "track" the advancement of "peak oil" by the growth of the number (and size) of area experiencing the effects of "peak oil" on their society.

Discuss.

[aldente]

Correct assumption. Here an recent quote from Kunstler in regards to keeping the American illusion alive while they have a hard time keeping the lights on in Indonesia and other parts of the world:
For the moment, it's back to business-as-usual for Easy-motoring Nation.
For the past month, the European Union has been sending two million barrels of crude a day to the US out of its own emergency reserves. The original deal was made in the brief lull between Katrina and Rita. It took a while for those tankers to get here. The EU imports over 15 million barrels of oil a day itself, somewhat more than the US did in pre-hurricane times.
clusterfuck nation

[Ludi]

Perhaps someone could design a world map with red areas denoting countries suffering from peak oil symptoms, and regularly update it.

[Raxozanne]

Bear in mind that sometimes its not just countries as a whole but specific industries within countries that feel the pinch and though it doesn't cause a big effect on the whole it manages to ruin a fair few peoples livelihoods here and there. For example today I just learnt that some cornwall fishermen are calling it a day due to high fuel prices.

[KingM]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Raxozanne', 'B')ear in mind that sometimes its not just countries as a whole but specific industries within countries that feel the pinch and though it doesn't cause a big effect on the whole it manages to ruin a fair few peoples livelihoods here and there. For example today I just learnt that some cornwall fishermen are calling it a day due to high fuel prices.

[RonMN]

Great point Rax! While there are entire countries going down the tubes from oil prices/demand destruction...there are also individual industries right here in the USA that are hurting...we know about the airlines & the truckers problems as well as the pensions vanishing...but reciently the tire companies & upholstery companies are producing atleast one third less product due to oil scarcity.

[Barrett808]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'P')erhaps someone could design a world map with red areas denoting countries suffering from peak oil symptoms, and regularly update it.

[KingM]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Barrett808', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'P')erhaps someone could design a world map with red areas denoting countries suffering from peak oil symptoms, and regularly update it.

[MacG]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KingM', 'T')hose are not examples of PO any more than famine in Sudan means there is a worldwide food shortage. They are examples of poverty and corrupt government.

[Barrett808]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KingM', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Barrett808', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'P')erhaps someone could design a world map with red areas denoting countries suffering from peak oil symptoms, and regularly update it.

[KingM]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Barrett808', '
')
Fair enough, but perhaps corruption will be exacerbated by Peak Oil. It may, in fact, be a fundamental feature.

[MacG]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KingM', 'A') shame, too, as it had formerly been one of the success stories of sub-Saharan Africa.

[jaws]

If you look at the shape of the Hubbert curve, you can see that you don't have to have hit the peak yet for severe effects to be felt. The curve splits into three parts. The first part is where production accelerates and the slope increases. The second part is when the physical limits of production are reached and the slope begins to decrease. And the third part is the actual decline where the slope is very negative but gradually becomes less so.

We are right now at the beggining of the second part, the deceleration before the peak. Production increases are fewer and slower, while demand continues to grow exponentially. This creates a perpetual increase in oil prices, however it is not an indication of peak yet.

[Sys1]

Jaws : i agree

[rogerhb]

So the first real affects might be when the third world shifts away from cash-crops back to subsistence and we then don't get the tabacco and coffee. Shudder. Cold-turkey here we come.

[Ibon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rogerhb', 'S')o the first real affects might be when the third world shifts away from cash-crops back to subsistence and we then don't get the tabacco and coffee. Shudder. Cold-turkey here we come.

[rogerhb]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rogerhb', 'S')o the first real affects might be when the third world shifts away from cash-crops back to subsistence and we then don't get the tabacco and coffee. Shudder. Cold-turkey here we come.

[jaws]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rogerhb', 'S')o the first real affects might be when the third world shifts away from cash-crops back to subsistence and we then don't get the tabacco and coffee. Shudder. Cold-turkey here we come.

[rogerhb]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jaws', 'T')he third world farms cash crops because they need the cash. They can use the cash to buy food that grows more easily in temperate climates. They aren't going back to subsistence because that is less productive, unless some crop is created that produces more food than they could earn with a cash crop.

[richardmmm]

the only reason that oil production has peaked in the US is because the environmentalists and local states stopped companies from drilling.

there is plenty of oil off california, florida, carolina etc etc, just those areas are banned for drilling.

they are discovering oil in Australia now, there is the whole shelf north of russia, unexplored parts of canada, there are many places to find oil.

it's not about the quantity of oil, it;s about the amount of facilities to produce the oil which is something totally human and nothing to do with a depleted natural resource.

production and refining capacity has been curtailed due to low prices and a glut of oil in the 90s, a result of the high prices of the 70s / 80s. now we have high prices again, oil will start flowing from all quarters.

in 10 years time the price of oil will be lower than it is today and we'll have another glut again. it's just the inefficiency of a capitalist system.