[MaterialExcess]

The truth usually lies some where in between the extremes. The peak oil, end of the world, doomer fantasies serve as one of the the extremes. They are best used as a point of reference to try and figure out where this in between area will be.

[peripato]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Daryl', 'I') guess I've gone completely off topic.

[peripato]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MaterialExcess', 'T')he truth usually lies some where in between the extremes. The peak oil, end of the world, doomer fantasies serve as one of the the extremes. They are best used as a point of reference to try and figure out where this in between area will be.

[fossilnut2]

l$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MaterialExcess', 'T')he truth usually lies some where in between the extremes. The peak oil, end of the world, doomer fantasies serve as one of the the extremes. They are best used as a point of reference to try and figure out where this in between area will be.

[rogerhb]

American society is incapable of moderation. I'm making that as a statement I will hold true until proved otherwise.

[The_Libertarian]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Daryl', 'L')ong ago, America committed to free markets. This was out of necessity.

[The_Libertarian]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ubercynicmeister', '
')No-one, I repeat NO-ONE can argue with success, and China is an unashamed success, all right - by doing the exact opposite of what the Freemarket Fundamentalists recommend.

[threadbear]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Daryl', '
')
3) Any apocalyptic forecast is should be held in suspicion. We have records of them going back as far as 5 or 6 thousand years and so far they have all been wrong. Not a great track record. Fear and melodrama sell. These guys are selling books, aren't they?

[peripato]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Threadbear', '
')
...as long as the reserves in Saudi are unknown, correct data isn't transparent, or apparent, there are some serious questions as to when peak will actually occur

[kevincarter]

You think that PO theory is great but you are not convinced that is valid?

Anyway

1. Believing in a system that “only grows” is absurd. Our system is like a bicycle ride, if you stop pedaling (growing) you fall. Statistics has nothing to do with that is pure logic.

2. “The other side of the debate” says that we’ll never run out of oil, OR that we’ll invent something magic that will produce lots of energy without using any. Both are weak arguments. They also consider that everything will go smooth, no terrorism, no upraise of radical insane leaders (Hitler type) in powerful countries with nukes willing to fight for oil, no new diseases, they don’t admit world over population as a problem etc. Our argument is “cheap oil will run out” and no, we don’t find holes in that argument. If you find any please let me know.

3. Apocalyptic predictions that are 5.000 years old were not based on logic or science, but on superstition. They are selling books, so what? They have the right to do so.

I think you should be consequent with your beliefs. My suggestion is: live in a city, if possible live in a very high apartment that needs lots of heating in winter and lots of AC in summer, buy all your food in the store, don’t learn any skills that are not very industrial-specialized, have at least one car for each member of the family (the bigger the better), keep debts and credit cards, don’t store any water, canned food or ammunition, don’t save a dime, don’t have any book related to farming, don't have a back up plan.

If SHTF and you can’t afford gas, if you loose your job, if no one is pumping water in to your apartment, if you can't afford energy, if there is no food in the stores… if that day comes then you can say: what happened? PO

[Doly]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Daryl', '
')1) It is too statistically dense. Statistics are are inherently unreliable because they are subject to misinterpretation, falsification, bad data input, exagerration etc.

[cheaplaughs]

Peak oil has allready happend in so many countries its scary.I
dont understand why people cant believe it wont happen on a world scale.
I mean it is no longer a theory it is fact when it will happen is a differant
story.Too me it is like living in berlin in 1937 beside a jewish family who
dissapeared and not believing what is happening.Only too find out 8 years
later them and 6 millon others died and saying i cant believe that happend.

[Battle_Scarred_Galactico]

The end of Industrial Civ does not = apocolypse. When you look back through history at how people lived you soon realize that is the norm. I hate this trend of how anyone who sees this is automatically a "Doomsayer".

Another unfortunate point, ancient prophets of doom based their visions on the ramblings of religious texts. Today we have the A-bomb .

[VinceG]

I just want to say that this is possibly the BEST topic I've read in the last few months. (almost) No hysterical and crazy the-end-of-the-world-is-coming and TSHTF theories, but just well-argumented statements and possible developments.

Keep it up!

[Daryl]

I agree. I just started reading this forum. I thought I would be buried in sacrcastic, kooky flames when I posted this topic. This has been a great discussion.

"And many many more silly apocolyptic forecasts were lost in an... uh...apocalypse?"

Very funny. You are right, of course. Consider the tsunami in Southeast Asia. A similar event has certainly taken place dozens of times during the last 300 or 400 thousand years of human prehistory, completing wiping out coastal tribal communities and civilizations. Tsunamis are likely the basis of the ancient apocalypse flood myths. Also, the ancient history we do know is replete with stories of invading armies completely wiping out whole populations. The invaders usually appeared with little or no notice. My point is that apocalyptic fears run very deep in the human psyche. It's a part of us that's dangerous also. People can become delusional very easily, witness David Koresh and Timothy McVeigh. These delusions by no means have to be spiritually based, just ask all those guys living in the bunkers in Idaho. I'm not sure what they are worried about at the moment, but it is all very "fleshy" i.e. Soviet invasions, race wars, fascist federal goverment etc. I think it keeps changing from one topic to the next, like the 7th Day Adventists, who have had to alter the date of the Christian apocalypse several times.

To come back to Peak Oil Theory, I don't think it is delusional to consider Hubbert's Peak an accurate analysis of facts, or to propose that oil will become more expensive in the near future. It is also not delusional to speculate that this will cause significant changes to our society. I just wanted to point out that when groups of people start stressing out about an upcoming general societal collapse (as many "quick-crash" peak oilers do), you need to be careful that you 're not falling into a paranoid delusion. I suggest that if you are going to start letting concerns about peak oil alter your lifestyle, you should just get up every morning, take a long look in the mirror and ask yourself if you're acting reasonably. And when someone starts talking about an upcoming apocalypse, do some extra diligence and make sure that person is not a kook.

[MrBill]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')o, your dismissiveness of Communism, Daryl, is based upon forgetting the Chinese.

Mind you, the West has had it no matter what. It's odd that no-one in the US has noticed the Communist Invasion that IS: where do you get almost all of your Consumer Goods from?

Communist China.

They really have sold the West the rope upon which the West will be hung.

AND it comes in three new exciting colours!

Hurry!

[jeffvail]

Peak Oil is just a contributor to the larger issue of complexity driving diminishing marginal returns. I submit:

The Logic of Collapse

The Mechanics of Collapse

And a quick note on demand destruction: Yes, it WILL keep demand in line with supply. Just remember that chaos, famine and die off all fall into the "demand destruction" category.

[EnergySpin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mgibbons19', 'I') feel great now because I am listening to a link from Coast to Coast that is saying Peak Oil is a myth. Those evil oil companies aren't sharing. The club of rome made it up to starve off and limit the population. The plants are shut down to keep the prices high. I heard that Saudi Arabia's sweet light has almost doubled and is almost coming out of the ground as pure gasoline. That the oilfields are replenishing.

I'm glad we don't have to worry anymore.

[GoIllini]

Are cornucopian and peak-oil views mutually exclusive?

I mean, the fact that one day, we will use less of a finite resource than we're using now is a no-brainer, but what about the possibility that we can continue growth of energy production for several centuries using existing economically scalable technology and proven reserves (fission/reprocessing)? What about the possibility that we can continue growth of energy production for millions of years using technology that's probably less than 50 years off and is getting ready to work in the lab?

The notion that oil's going to peak, but energy production won't until after the Lord Jesus returns in 10 million years is a possibility, right?

One might joke that hell might have brimstone, but God might not be able to afford the heating bill for all the fire...

[Aaron]

If you believe that a peak in conventional oil is unavoidable.

And you believe that post-peak equals mounting oil scarcity.

And finally, if you believe that resource scarcity leads to conflict.

You're a doomer.



(Conflict is the nice/nice way of saying war these days BTW)