[BabyPeanut]

How to start...

I just got back from my third Peak Oil Meetup. There were two authors. One of them, Jim Day, was at the previous meeting. He used to own an oil company. Says he ditched it because quotas were constraining the production and therefor ruining profits. Now he teaches law. It's great to talk with him because he challenges everything. Soon you are left falling down a rabbit hole without anything to land on period.

"What's a barrel?" - Jim

"42 gallons" - me

He then points out that oil expand and contracts with temperature. He later points out that production figures are manipulated. Some measure it when it comes out of the ground. Some oil comes out hot. *poof* goes the certainty. They weren't even lying so much as simplifying.

[BabyPeanut]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BabyPeanut', 'H')ow to start...

I just got back from my third Peak Oil Meetup. There were two authors. One of them, Jim Day, was at the previous meeting. He used to own an oil company. Says he ditched it because quotas were constraining the production and therefor ruining profits. Now he teaches law. It's great to talk with him because he challenges everything. Soon you are left falling down a rabbit hole without anything to land on period.

"What's a barrel?" - Jim

"42 gallons" - me

He then points out that oil expand and contracts with temperature. He later points out that production figures are manipulated. Some measure it when it comes out of the ground. Some oil comes out hot. *poof* goes the certainty. They weren't even lying so much as making money.

[FireJack]

I don't understand. You quoted yourself in your next post then give a link to a star trek ep about gansters?

[rogerhb]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FireJack', 'I') don't understand. You quoted yourself in your next post then give a link to a star trek ep about gansters?

[bobcousins]

Sorry if this is a shock, but everything you experience is not real. People seem to think they experience a window on reality, and all this data is perceived directly by our concious brain. This doesn't even come close to what really happens.

The brain takes sensory data and uses it construct a model of the "real" world. This model only needs to be accurate enough to be effective. If that means making gross generalisations then so be it. Most of the time, it doesn't matter. In cases where it does, the brain can always refine the model.

Obviously the model needs to correspond to important areas of the real world. In that sense, some of the things you experience can be considered "real", in that there is a close one-one mapping between the model and certain aspects of the real world. But even this perception is very limited. We only see things in a narrow part of the electromagnetic spectrum. We ignore things a lot bigger or a lot smaller than our scale.

The clever trick the brain does is create a single unified whole and convince our concious part that it is experiencing reality, and that is all there is. It also creates the illusion that the brain is a single entity under the direction of the concious part. None of this is real.

The universe is huge, and our model is tiny. Everything must be generalised and simplified. I think the amazing thing is that we get by with so little grasp of reality, rather than that people are surprised to find it incomplete.

[GrizzAdams]

There is quite a bit of jargon to sift through, on just about any market. Not just technical talk, but lawyer talk. Like when Saudi Arabia comes out and says that they can increase production by an x amount, it usually means a number of things.

[Doly]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GrizzAdams', 'L')ike when Saudi Arabia comes out and says that they can increase production by an x amount, it usually means a number of things.

[MrBill]

Well, for instance Doly, when world supply is 85 mpbd and demand is 83 mbpd, and Saudi Arabia says no problem we have 2 mbpd excess capacity, and we will sell it to anyone who wants to buy it. What does that mean? Yes, there is 2 mbpd extra supply. However, it might be heavy, sour blends of crude that require more refining than the sweet blends that refiners prefer?

Cars & trucks do not run on crude. They run on unleaded gasoline and diesel fuel. In the States you have a patchwork of regulations that say what can be sold where. Therefore, in addition to having enough crude, you need refining capacity to turn crude into products, and you have to get them physically to the right markets in a timely, cost efficient manner.

So the headline itself is not misleading, it just does not give enough information to be useful in itself. Now, of course, if demand is 85 mbpd and supply is 83 mbpd then you have a problem, and that headline says quite a lot!

[BabyPeanut]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FireJack', 'I') don't understand. You quoted yourself in your next post then give a link to a star trek ep about gansters?

[BabyPeanut]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'w')orld supply is 85 mpbd and demand is 83 mbpd

[Heineken]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BabyPeanut', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'w')orld supply is 85 mpbd and demand is 83 mbpd

[Heineken]

What I want to know is why the hell the Chinese data are always in tons and not barrels. A wonderful obfuscating device. And what is a ton? There are several kinds of "tons," but the stories I see never define what sort of ton is meant---metric, short, long, UK, displacement? Who knows?

[BabyPeanut]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BabyPeanut', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'w')orld supply is 85 mpbd and demand is 83 mbpd

[MrBill]

1 short tons = 0.90718474 tonnes
1 metric tonne = 1.1023 tons


Here is a good webpage for oil industry conversions

Oil Industry Conversions

[GrizzAdams]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GrizzAdams', 'L')ike when Saudi Arabia comes out and says that they can increase production by an x amount, it usually means a number of things.

[BabyPeanut]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GrizzAdams', '[')url=http://www.countercurrents.org/peakoil-porter220804.htm]Oil Market Mired In Confusion[/url]

[BabyPeanut]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')url=http://www.aig.asn.au/oil_and_gas_reserves.htm]Mitchell concluded, "The continued existence of this mixture of approaches and the absence of a clear and consistent internationally applied metric or standard create confusion and lead to misunderstanding, leaving open the potential for those wishing to take advantage of the confusion of estimates to advance their own agendas or influence policy." (link)[/url]

[aflurry]

This is more reason why I think Simmons' call for transparency and auditing of world oil reserves is the most pertinent and pressing issue currently in the oil debate. All of the vagaries of volume measurements, and quality differentiation can be solved if the data is available and standards are set. Solutions like the avg temp method mentioned earlier, etc. These kinds of issues should not encourage anyone to throw up their hands and say "the world is unknowable."

[Guest]

As a rule of thumb oil expands by 1% for each 14 degrees centigrade temperature rise

The link is about palm oil, but crude oil will be similar. I don't
know what temperature oil is pumped at - but at most it will only
be a few percent less dense than oil at ambient temperature. All
numbers in oil production statistics are uncertain and clouded by
incomplete and vague statistics. That is the real world, in any
industry. The oil industry is worst than most, which is why so
much confusion arises about exactly when supply will fall below
demand (it already has - it is just that the demand destruction is
currently mostly in third world countries that we westerners don't chose to care about).

[FairMaiden]

I honestly don't think you need to understand the oil industries volume and counting systems to understand Peak Oil...its a fairly simple concept: oil is finite and we are running out...you only get into this debate when you start to ask the question "when"...