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Peak Oil Forecasts and a Critique on the Truth Movement

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Peak Oil Forecasts and a Critique on the Truth Movement

Unread postby directinfo » Wed 12 Oct 2005, 08:59:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he US is on the edge of collapse, being the most exposed to energy supply deficit. When the US collapses, global markets will shake. The rest of industrial civilization will eventually downscale, de-globalize, and become a lot less automated.

We can expect a period of calm between the US collapse and crunch time for the rest of the world due to the sudden drop in demand immediately after the US collapse. If we are smart, this period will not be wasted as we wasted our time during the previous warning given by the 1973 oil shocks.


{edited by MQ] {Please don't post entire articles, link to them like this with a short quote}

First published on LifeboatArkBuilders
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Re: Peak Oil Forecasts and a Critique on the Truth Movement

Unread postby PhilBiker » Wed 12 Oct 2005, 09:16:51

Wow do you really expect anyone to read this? Why not just provide a link.
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Re: Peak Oil Forecasts and a Critique on the Truth Movement

Unread postby elroy » Wed 12 Oct 2005, 09:19:53

Stone age ? Iron age at least! ;)
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Re: Peak Oil Forecasts and a Critique on the Truth Movement

Unread postby Antimatter » Wed 12 Oct 2005, 09:38:39

Is it just me of is the phase "truth movement" that the conspiracy types like to label themselves rather self indulgent?
"Production of useful work is limited by the laws of thermodynamics, but the production of useless work seems to be unlimited."
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Re: Peak Oil Forecasts and a Critique on the Truth Movement

Unread postby bobcousins » Wed 12 Oct 2005, 10:11:59

Conspiracy theory eats itself. Back in the real world...
It's all downhill from here
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Re: Peak Oil Forecasts and a Critique on the Truth Movement

Unread postby peaker_2005 » Wed 12 Oct 2005, 10:36:29

Some good points. However, a few corrections:

- When the US economy goes, so does the rest of the global economy, and in fairly short order. Basically it goes that the US is the glue that keeps the current hedonistic society going (because it takes on a MASSIVE share of the world's debt.
- Some economies will have a quick turnaround for energy conversion reasonably quickly - generally, the smaller the economy and country and the more vast the rail network for the country's size (Australia, for example has a LOT of rail for a country with only 20 million people).
- We're unlikely to be kicked back to the stone age UNLESS we have a MAJOR ice age. I'm not talking one of them mini ice ages either - sure, one of those would result in an extremely scary dieoff, but it wouldn't be as bad as a big one - if the Earth snowballed, for example, all bets are off.
- The wheels are falling off the strong Australian economy (it has been growing CONSTANTLY for the last 15 years. Unemployment is at 3-decade-low levels. Every time we got down close to this level previously, a recession occured.

Unfortunately, I fear a major depression, one that may even make the Great Depression look like a picnic, is set to occur within the next decade - probably will happen when the oil production starts its inexorable decline.
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Re: Peak Oil Forecasts and a Critique on the Truth Movement

Unread postby SHiFTY » Wed 12 Oct 2005, 17:24:16

You might want to spell-check your BIG RED LETTERS... Inheritance is the correct spelling.

Apart from that, A++ RANT Would read again A++ :-D
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Re: Peak Oil Forecasts and a Critique on the Truth Movement

Unread postby something_awfull » Wed 12 Oct 2005, 22:52:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('peaker_2005', '
')
- Some economies will have a quick turnaround for energy conversion reasonably quickly - generally, the smaller the economy and country and the more vast the rail network for the country's size (Australia, for example has a LOT of rail for a country with only 20 million people).


Problem here, particuraly in the Eastern states of Australia, the rail system, particuarly in regional/country area's, (where the produce comes from) has been decommission and basically left to rot in favour of truck haulage.

We usually go down to the Tumut region (Snowy mountains hydro-electric scheme), their raillink and facilities were decommissioned a decade or so ago, now just rotting away, I looked at it and said to my wife, "they're gonna wish they didn't do that".
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Re: Peak Oil Forecasts and a Critique on the Truth Movement

Unread postby rogerhb » Wed 12 Oct 2005, 22:56:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('something_awfull', 'W')e usually go down to the Tumut region (Snowy mountains hydro-electric scheme), their raillink and facilities were decommissioned a decade or so ago, now just rotting away, I looked at it and said to my wife, "they're gonna wish they didn't do that".


Labour bought back the railways a couple of years ago over here. Even Fonterra were glad as they could not plan to use it effectively while it was privatised.
"Complex problems have simple, easy to understand, wrong answers." - Henry Louis Mencken
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Re: Peak Oil Forecasts and a Critique on the Truth Movement

Unread postby ubercynicmeister » Thu 13 Oct 2005, 23:31:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('something_awfull', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('peaker_2005', '
')
- Some economies will have a quick turnaround for energy conversion reasonably quickly - generally, the smaller the economy and country and the more vast the rail network for the country's size (Australia, for example has a LOT of rail for a country with only 20 million people).


Problem here, particuraly in the Eastern states of Australia, the rail system, particuarly in regional/country area's, (where the produce comes from) has been decommission and basically left to rot in favour of truck haulage.

We usually go down to the Tumut region (Snowy mountains hydro-electric scheme), their raillink and facilities were decommissioned a decade or so ago, now just rotting away, I looked at it and said to my wife, "they're gonna wish they didn't do that".


They are regretting it RIGHT NOW, But the Angle Grinder (Nick Greiner) govt wanted to make usre their mates in the Trucking Industry got their profits - and let's not forget that good ole Bruce Baird was transport minister - someone who basically defined rail travel as "belonging in a museum".

Mind you the Truckies have now accepted the reality of rail travel and are quietly joining the queue:

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5744,16824803%5E28737,00.html

Trouble is - the downsized railways can't handle the increased traffic. And the "tinkering at the edges" approach which is now being adopted, even as the "cross Sydney Road Tunnel" debacle sucks up more and more money, when it could be better spent on rail...OH, well, we all know where the priorities for the NSW govt lie: with road, exclusively.
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