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Long term effects of peak oil in the human species

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Long term effects of peak oil in the human species

Postby bobbyald » Wed 12 Oct 2005, 16:28:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'a')ssuming evolution is correct, and it may not be, it doesn't really apply to people anymore because of our technology


I would like to nominate this as the stupidest comment ever on this forum.
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Re: Long term effects of peak oil in the human species

Postby waegari » Wed 12 Oct 2005, 16:29:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', 'M')y point here is that Jato's contention that civilization will shortly end is utter garbage because we have vast supplies of nuclear fuel that we can utilize, whether its after some giant economic crash and die off that so many doomers are fond of here, or the more gradual infrastructure transition that I'm more confident in.


The point is can: one of the political issues you may expect is the example I just gave you about Germany. You may not know, but in Germany the fast breeder close to the provincial town of Kalkar (a stone's throw from where I live in the Netherlands) evoked so much protest, the building of it never even got finished. This is what has become of it: Kernwasser Wunderland. The name of this amusement park, btw, translates as Nuclear Water Wonderland.

Those breeders of course will become extremely expensive, and will also need an incredible amount of safety precautions. Not to mention the environmental costs. But then again, there's already so little left of the globe within a short range of time from now (oceans acidifying etcetera), it will be hard to tell the difference.

Anyhow, breeder reactors are quite an interesting option if you want to raise the chances of humankind destroying itself even more dilligently.

But: as with all other subjects here, breeder reactors will remain a phantasy if nobody takes political action. Not that I would :P .
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Re: Long term effects of peak oil in the human species

Postby Dezakin » Wed 12 Oct 2005, 16:43:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he point is can: one of the political issues you may expect is the example I just gave you about Germany.

Utter nonsense. Very few will vote for self starvation. The political situation in germany is just so because they are in no danger of having the lights turned off... currently they can either welch on kyoto and burn more coal, build big wind farms, or import electricity from france's nuclear infrastructure.
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Re: Long term effects of peak oil in the human species

Postby waegari » Wed 12 Oct 2005, 16:48:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he point is can: one of the political issues you may expect is the example I just gave you about Germany.

Utter nonsense. Very few will vote for self starvation. The political situation in germany is just so because they are in no danger of having the lights turned off... currently they can either welch on kyoto and burn more coal, build big wind farms, or import electricity from france's nuclear infrastructure.


You seem to forget that 'they' will have to take action now, if they would want to follow up on your prescription. Breeders need to get built first, before you can make use of them. Building will require fossile fuels and it takes an awful lot of time. What will also take a lot of time: the political process and the actual implementation of the decision taken.

See, the whole issue of peak oil is also about the question whether we have enough time to keep waiting. Well, we just don't.

So I'm afraid the term 'utter nonsence' is not the most appropriate expression here. :shock:
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Re: Long term effects of peak oil in the human species

Postby Dezakin » Wed 12 Oct 2005, 17:03:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')ou seem to forget that 'they' will have to take action now, if they would want to follow up on your prescription.

Maybe to get some soft landing scenario if you are pessimistic about everything, but otherwise you can just take the hit of several billion souls and leverage the nuclear infrastructure we have to rebuild. This is the worst case scenario, one I find laughibly implausible, and we're no where near 'end of civlilization' that Jato's cute graph depicts.
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Re: Long term effects of peak oil in the human species

Postby bobcousins » Wed 12 Oct 2005, 17:58:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', 'O')kay, bob. Have you any indication that nuclear wont serve our industrial needs?


Sure, but none worth sharing with you. I fear your constant drumming has left you quite deaf to alternative views. :wink:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')his entire board is filled with doomers that wont let facts get in the way of a good mad max scenario.


And you won't let the facts get in the way of your nuclear utopia scenario.

FWIW, I am not a doomer. I actually like my quiet, comfortable suburban lifestyle, I wish it continues. And I love playing with the cheap toys they send me from China. The extreme doom scenario is a possibility, but not a very likely one in my opinion.
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Re: Long term effects of peak oil in the human species

Postby FatherOfTwo » Wed 12 Oct 2005, 18:44:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('waegari', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he point is can: one of the political issues you may expect is the example I just gave you about Germany.

Utter nonsense. Very few will vote for self starvation. The political situation in germany is just so because they are in no danger of having the lights turned off... currently they can either welch on kyoto and burn more coal, build big wind farms, or import electricity from france's nuclear infrastructure.


You seem to forget that 'they' will have to take action now, if they would want to follow up on your prescription. Breeders need to get built first, before you can make use of them. Building will require fossile fuels and it takes an awful lot of time. What will also take a lot of time: the political process and the actual implementation of the decision taken.

See, the whole issue of peak oil is also about the question whether we have enough time to keep waiting. Well, we just don't.

So I'm afraid the term 'utter nonsence' is not the most appropriate expression here. :shock:


For the most part I agree with Dezakin. I say "for the most part" because the devil is in the details. But if oil depletion turns out as bad as some of the doomers think, you can bet your bottom dollar the overwhelming majority of people will jump at nuclear energy.

I mean do you honestly think people are going to say "Gee, you know I like living and I'd hate to see my children starve, but those nuclear reactors, there just so dangerous and we'll never get enough built in time and oh hell, I'll just slit my wrists now." That is true definition of uttern nonsense. If the shoe fits...

Current NIMBYism is based on being accustomed to a certain level of spoiledness. Remove it and a persons tune changes very quickly.

PS
Oh ya, let's not forget about that global warming problem. Nuclear will help with that tremendously. Or has everyone forgotten about that?

PPS
Yes, I'm aware that we have fundamental unchecked growth problems. That's a related, but different issue.
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Re: Long term effects of peak oil in the human species

Postby waegari » Wed 12 Oct 2005, 19:22:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FatherOfTwo', ' ')I mean do you honestly think people are going to say "Gee, you know I like living and I'd hate to see my children starve, but those nuclear reactors, there just so dangerous and we'll never get enough built in time and oh hell, I'll just slit my wrists now." That is true definition of uttern nonsense. If the shoe fits...

Current NIMBYism is based on being accustomed to a certain level of spoiledness. Remove it and a persons tune changes very quickly.


So the quote below is just proof of being spoiled?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he superphoenix houses more than six tons of plutonium (and CRII-RAD has already detected traces of it in the Rhone River). The dangers of fast-breeders are so great that even many otherwise pro-nuclear physicists oppose them. They are believed to be the only reactors in which there can actually be an atomic explosion. These dangers are inherent in Superphoenix's design, and were known before construction started. With its record of actual operating experience - which includes an incredible series of "impossible" accidents (two of which had officially been estimated to have a probability of occurring "not more than once in 10,000 to 100,000 years") - the DSIN safety authorities have understandably become publicly critical.
from Superphoenix

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FatherofTwo', '
')

PS
Oh ya, let's not forget about that global warming problem. Nuclear will help with that tremendously. Or has everyone forgotten about that?


Of course not. But, no offence, I'm afraid it's a wee bit cynical to try to solve one environmental problem of incredible magnitude by creating another.

You as well seem to forget that one needs time to implement changes: we would have to be ahead of the dire consequences of the oil peak.

So, once again, French Superphoenix breeder: $this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')onstruction was approved in 1972 and lasted from 1974 to 1981, but power production did not begin until 1985.


from
Wikipedia

So it took 13 years to get the thing going after approval. Ponder on that for a bit.

Then get this:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')In June 1997, one of the first actions of Lionel Jospin on becoming Prime Minister was to announce the closure of the plant "because of its excessive costs"., from the same Wikipedia entry.

To no avail therefore, because of costs. Now imagine, peak oil is coming, and you have to start building and operating the thing. You will have to use oil whatever way you look at it. This will only raise those costs (EROEI).

The point I'm making is: claims of an abundancy of facts that would support breeder reactors are easily met with sets of some quite contradictory facts, which may get conveniently overlooked, forced by cynical necessity. Heightened cynicism is one of the possible long term effects of peak oil. In this case the cynicism resides in the talismanic idea that fast breeders will save us, so we don't have to worry, while not taking into account you need an awful lot of time to construct and build proper ones, worldwide, in countries also which will not be able to afford them.

Once again, it's not even about the technicalities only, it's also an issue of time. And there is no way to sit back and relax, hoping technology will also get you through this.

Well, just trying to get back on topic here. And now you have to excuse me: will be off for a couple of days, so won't be able to watch this discussion anyhow.
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Re: Long term effects of peak oil in the human species

Postby waegari » Wed 12 Oct 2005, 19:27:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')
Utter nonsense. Very few will vote for self starvation.


One final remark (I'll be off for a couple of days): evidence points to the contrary. We as a species know that by driving cars and flying airplanes we have a fairly good chance of devastating the environment, i.e. nature, i.e. life. Desertification is spreading, oceans get acid.

Still: cars and airplanes keep being used in no small numbers. The majority votes for self starvation on a daily basis.
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Re: Long term effects of peak oil in the human species

Postby MonteQuest » Wed 12 Oct 2005, 21:39:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('linlithgowoil', 'a')ssuming evolution is correct, and it may not be, it doesn't really apply to people anymore because of our technology.

e.g. move black people used to a hot climate to a cold climate (i.e. take a certain variation of a species and put it somewhere its not used to). What would happen? In nature, many of these newly introduced creatures would die off rapidly, meaning their genetics would be removed from the gene pool, though some would remain who had genetic advantages.

This doesnt apply to people. The black people would just go and make/find/buy warm clothes and communicate with the indigenous people about how best to survive. Thus, their genetics remain in the gene pool and arent exterminated at all.

evolution has reached its peak, homo sapiens. once a species masters technology, communication, machinery etc. evolution ends in relation to that species.


When random genetic mutations cease to take place ( completely impossible) then evolution will cease. I suggest you do a little reading on evolution before posting further poppycock. :lol:

Evolution is not about making decisions that help you survive, it is about having random genetic mutations that promote your adaptation to a changing environment over time.

Where do people get these notions? :roll:
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Re: Long term effects of peak oil in the human species

Postby Dezakin » Wed 12 Oct 2005, 22:43:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ell, just trying to get back on topic here. And now you have to excuse me: will be off for a couple of days, so won't be able to watch this discussion anyhow.

We have a thread regarding nuclear fuel sustainability in the technology forum where you can argue this, which is why my replies have been very narrow in the criticism of Jato's end of industrial civilization nonsense, which is obviously false. The rest I'm willing to debate there.
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Re: Long term effects of peak oil in the human species

Postby DefiledEngine » Thu 13 Oct 2005, 00:22:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')we have vast supplies of nuclear fuel that we can utilize, whether its after some giant economic crash and die off that so many doomers are fond of here, or the more gradual infrastructure transition that I'm more confident in.


So, it seems. It is very possible that we're simply going to burn everything possible to keep growth and economy going. More coal, more gas, and utilize more nuclear (wouldn't that possibly lead to more weapons?). As far as I know, few doomers think oil is necessarily the last thing we'll run out of. But it is a symptom of a larger problem. Indeed, true Hanson-ism.
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Re: Long term effects of peak oil in the human species

Postby Graeme » Sat 15 Oct 2005, 02:23:07

Lets talk about the present and thousands of years in the past first because our present traits could continue into the future for thousands of years too (but see below). Here is an analysis of our behavourial traits based on the close genetic relationship we have with chimpanzees and bonobos:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')e focuses on chimpanzees and bonobos because they are closest to humans, sharing a common ancestor as recently as 5.5 million years ago. After humans branched off, ancestral chimps and bonobos remained a single species for 3 million more years. Genetic evidence indicates that humans are more closely related to bonobos than to chimps, but only slightly so.

The most remarkable differences are behavioral. Chimpanzees live in hierarchical male-centered groups where dominance and alliances depend on confrontation and physical prowess. They live in Machiavellian social groupings.

Bonobos "make love, not war." They live in female-centered groups where erotic touching regardless of gender or age serves a social lubricant.

He concludes that we are "The Bipolar Ape," a creature whose challenge is to strike a balance between love and war, between competition and cooperation, between the needs of self and the needs of the group. De Waal examines the range of possibilities that evolution, both genetic and cultural, has made possible for our distinct species of ape.

In that sense, we no longer need to evolve, but in another sense we are influencing our evolution, possibly in a negative direction. We have changed the rules of survival by pharmacology, technology, or surgical intervention.


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Re: Long term effects of peak oil in the human species

Postby Raxozanne » Sat 15 Oct 2005, 02:49:25

I just finished reading Demonic Males by Richard Wrangham.

He dosen't conclude that we are a bipolar ape, he seems to think we are still stuck in the chimpanzee mold.

It would be great to see a bonobo-style human society in action. Do you think they would get anything done between the hoka hoka? :-D

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Re: Long term effects of peak oil in the human species

Postby Daryl » Sat 15 Oct 2005, 07:26:02

Just a reminder that evolution and geology transpire on a time scale that we can barely fathom. I believe geologists estimate there have been several catastrophic complete die-offs over the last billion years, probably caused by natural climate changes. Vast entirely strange and different ecosystems have come and gone. Ours will too in the long run, even if we have unlimited cheap oil. If the human species survives long enough to evolve into a substantially different physical specimen, I think it would happen on a time scale that would make our global/industrial civilization look like a brief flash in the pan.
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Re: Long term effects of peak oil in the human species

Postby GoIllini » Sat 15 Oct 2005, 10:29:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DefiledEngine', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')we have vast supplies of nuclear fuel that we can utilize, whether its after some giant economic crash and die off that so many doomers are fond of here, or the more gradual infrastructure transition that I'm more confident in.


So, it seems. It is very possible that we're simply going to burn everything possible to keep growth and economy going. More coal, more gas, and utilize more nuclear (wouldn't that possibly lead to more weapons?). As far as I know, few doomers think oil is necessarily the last thing we'll run out of. But it is a symptom of a larger problem. Indeed, true Hanson-ism.


Again, fission's probably going to last us until Christ returns in glory. Failing that, fusion will.

But it really doesn't matter. We'll all be long gone by the time the planet runs out of energy. God might have to deal with a huge energy bill on his fire and brimstone in hell (Satan might wind up getting off easy), or all of his bright lights in heaven, but that's not something for me to worry about.
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Re: Long term effects of peak oil in the human species

Postby DefiledEngine » Sun 16 Oct 2005, 04:21:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Again, fission's probably going to last us until Christ returns in glory. Failing that, fusion will.


Based, of course, on a optimistic view on infrastructure ramp-up on nuclear fission during falling energy-income, and an even more optimistic view on fusion.
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Re: Long term effects of peak oil in the human species

Postby katkinkate » Mon 17 Oct 2005, 04:36:18

Genetically: We went through one severe bottleneck in our population (swift reduction in numbers followed by eventual increase again) around 70 000 years ago (Toba supervolcano) that reduced our genetic variety quite a lot. Another die off would act as another bottleneck further reducing our genetic variability and thus increasing our risk of extinction through disease (less chance of resistant individuals) and changing environment.

Culturally: Some cultural groups are in real danger of cultural extinction now and with an eventual die off (however large it might be) more cultural groups are bound to be lost. With the absorption/death of cultures we lose more behavioural stategies and knowledge for survival for the species as a whole.

Socially: Hard times tend to make people withdraw from 'liberal' thinking (tolerance/embracing of difference) and embrace more 'conservative' even religious values. What's more they tend to feel the need to enforce conformity within their area, often to the point of violence, ostracism and murder. People being defiantly different seems to offend some people. In good times they seem to be less inclined to get too pushy, but in hard times 'different' people tend to be blamed for the hardship. If things get really hard societies worldwide will get more authoritarian in general and probably politically as well. I see a lot of gains made last century evaporating into the ether for the next several decades (eg. freedom of religion, easy access to education, social and gender equity).
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Re: Long term effects of peak oil in the human species

Postby rogerhb » Mon 17 Oct 2005, 04:46:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('katkinkate', 'C')ulturally: Some cultural groups are in real danger of cultural extinction now and with an eventual die off (however large it might be) more cultural groups are bound to be lost.


I'm all for the extinction of certain cultures. A younger culture does not automatically mean better, just sufficiently different to be deemed a new culture. However what I'm most probably think of are actually fashions or modes rather than true cultures.
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Re: Long term effects of peak oil in the human species

Postby katkinkate » Mon 17 Oct 2005, 08:43:55

True not all cultures seem to be desirable to others, but they aren't all bad and the variety in ways to do things, see the world, provides more choices or viewpoints to help others understand the world. In a world of hardship knowledge of how another culture deals with a situation your culture doesn't usually face could give you an edge on survival over someone totally ignorant of others in the world. The more we lose the fewer options we have, the harder survival could become as a species.
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