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Which Currency will the most stable with peak oil

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Which Currency will the most stable with peak oil

Unread postby gwmss15 » Fri 30 Sep 2005, 02:55:20

Which currency do people think will be the most stable with peak oil

lasts the longest in a hard crash

devalues the least in a soft crash

I currently have 75% of my cash in AUD and 25% in thai baht.

My income is via thai baht not australian dollars so i must convert it once a month.

I dont like the idea of carrying large amounts of gold

what are other peoples view.
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Re: Which Currency will the most stable with peak oil

Unread postby shakespear1 » Fri 30 Sep 2005, 05:05:57

GW

Someone has discussed this before. Try a search with words "currency" or hunt around the ECON area. :)
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Re: Which Currency will the most stable with peak oil

Unread postby katkinkate » Fri 30 Sep 2005, 05:49:31

The Swiss Franc is total supported by gold. The last currency on earth to be so. So it is less volatile than others.
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Re: Which Currency will the most stable with peak oil

Unread postby MacG » Fri 30 Sep 2005, 07:03:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('katkinkate', 'T')he Swiss Franc is total supported by gold. The last currency on earth to be so. So it is less volatile than others.


Nops. They quietly left the gold standard in -95 sometimes.
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Re: Which Currency will the most stable with peak oil

Unread postby ubercrap » Fri 30 Sep 2005, 11:03:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MacG', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('katkinkate', 'T')he Swiss Franc is total supported by gold. The last currency on earth to be so. So it is less volatile than others.


Nops. They quietly left the gold standard in -95 sometimes.


Now, I believe they are near the top of the list in countries with the greatest % of monetary inflation/year?
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Re: Which Currency will the most stable with peak oil

Unread postby OilsNotWell » Fri 30 Sep 2005, 11:08:11

It will be a 'race to the bottom' type of situation between currencies, as they fight against each other in devaluation (actually they already all do this, it's just going to get a whole lot worse)..

The Canadian dollar has been showing quite a bit of strength over the US dollar though...

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But don't think of holding currency post-peak.....hold real assets
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Re: Which Currency will the most stable with peak oil

Unread postby falser » Fri 30 Sep 2005, 11:17:49

Gold really is the only true safe currency. But you don't need to have it all in bullion. Think about splitting up your money, maybe 20% bullion, 40% gold exchange traded funds (symbol GLD I think) or gold mining companies, and another 40% in other assets (oil stocks, bonds).
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Re: Which Currency will the most stable with peak oil

Unread postby cube » Fri 30 Sep 2005, 12:43:06

Over here in the USA we used to make fun of Canadian money by calling it "monopoly" money. I'm quite sure everyone here has played that board game before. Anyways that was back in the days...but now the situation is totally different.

Granted 1 Canadian dollar is still less then 1 US dollar, but the way things are going now it would surprise me greatly if the 2 currencies did not switch roles.

The last place you want to put your money in is the US dollar.....but of course since I'm an American I guess I kinda have to hold onto US dollars. :roll:

BTW in America the idea of putting your money into a foreign currency is considered very weird. For as long as anyone can remember the US dollar has been the center of the financial universe. That will change in the near future.
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Re: Which Currency will the most stable with peak oil

Unread postby jaws » Fri 30 Sep 2005, 14:03:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ubercrap', '
')Now, I believe they are near the top of the list in countries with the greatest % of monetary inflation/year?
The swiss franc has appreciated about 50% over the US dollar in the past 5 years. Not a bad rate of return, especially if you can get a savings account with a nice rate of interest.
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Re: Which Currency will the most stable with peak oil

Unread postby katkinkate » Fri 30 Sep 2005, 20:00:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ubercrap', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MacG', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('katkinkate', 'T')he Swiss Franc is total supported by gold. The last currency on earth to be so. So it is less volatile than others.


Nops. They quietly left the gold standard in -95 sometimes.


Now, I believe they are near the top of the list in countries with the greatest % of monetary inflation/year?


:oops: ooops. :shock: bummer, sell sell..
Kind regards, Katkinkate

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Re: Which Currency will the most stable with peak oil

Unread postby fossilnut2 » Fri 30 Sep 2005, 20:24:00

U.S. dollars. The world currency that will still be the world currency 25 years from now.

Re the Canadian dollar (or Austalian dollar, Euro, etc.)...it doesn't matter what the exchange rate is between two currencies but the 'direction of change' of value. Is one currency increasing or decreasing in relation to other currencies.
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Re: Which Currency will the most stable with peak oil

Unread postby Kingcoal » Sun 02 Oct 2005, 21:21:28

The USD. However, like the rest of us, the dollar has been taking a beating under Bush.
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Re: Which Currency will the most stable with peak oil

Unread postby GoIllini » Mon 03 Oct 2005, 17:18:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', 'O')ver here in the USA we used to make fun of Canadian money by calling it "monopoly" money. I'm quite sure everyone here has played that board game before. Anyways that was back in the days...but now the situation is totally different.

Granted 1 Canadian dollar is still less then 1 US dollar, but the way things are going now it would surprise me greatly if the 2 currencies did not switch roles.

The last place you want to put your money in is the US dollar.....but of course since I'm an American I guess I kinda have to hold onto US dollars. :roll:

BTW in America the idea of putting your money into a foreign currency is considered very weird. For as long as anyone can remember the US dollar has been the center of the financial universe. That will change in the near future.


The U.S. has 1/4-1/3 of the world's coal supply- and about the energy equivalent of 2.5-4 Saudi Arabias worth of energy in it.

Mid-term, the U.S. dollar would be a bad investment. Long-term, I wouldn't write it off quite so quickly. As the world shifts to coal as its predominant source of energy, the U.S. will be a pretty decent exporter. Combine that with the fact that the world is more dependent on the U.S. for food than it is on Saudi Arabia for oil, and the USD doesn't look quite as weak once the economy starts shutting down.

Of course, commodities and even equities will be much safer than currencies.
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Re: Which Currency will the most stable with peak oil

Unread postby jaws » Mon 03 Oct 2005, 19:55:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Kingcoal', 'T')he USD. However, like the rest of us, the dollar has been taking a beating under Bush.
The U.S. economy is the least prepared to absorb peak oil. Peak oil will wipe out trillions in U.S. wealth by making most of its capital stock completely useless. That isn't good news for the U.S. dollar.

And I'm not even getting into the crazy fiscal and monetary behavior of the government under current conditions.
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Re: Which Currency will the most stable with peak oil

Unread postby richardmmm » Tue 04 Oct 2005, 00:12:51

actually the concensus on the swiss is that inflation is not that bad as they haven't gone crazy with printing money like water as they have no geopoltics or massive military to finance.

I haven't been there in a long while, but I was talking with someone about this and he was saying how expensive Switzerland is but I was looking at some property and rent prices there for comparision and it seemed quite cheap as though inflation hadn't really taken a grip. He suddenly mentioned that it occured to him that the price of a coffee which is always a good example hadn't changed year in year out since 1995 when he first started going there.

Then he said thinking through it that it could be that I was right, that basically Switzerland has it's own currency that is not dreadfully abused with debt and it has the reputation for being expensive, so visitors think things are epxensive because they go on vacation and are not used to the prices and they have been told it is expensive, but infact due to such low inflation is actually quite cheap now, especially after this dreadful euro has turned countries like spain and greece that used to be so low priced into a mediterranean version of central london price wise.

however the paper money is not backed by gold so it is as dead as the others really, epsecially with raw materials, oil etc running in price so badly, that effects everything really, no matter what the currency.

Switzerland does have a few things on it's side though, firstly most of the electricity is from hydrodams in the mountains. Secondly it has massive gold reserves on hand which it can always chose to hold onto in an emergency. Thirdly it has the largest standing milita and biggest number of firearms per head, so it is unlikely that anyone would try to invade. The countrymen are armed to the teeth and live in difficult to control mountainous regions. Switzerland is like New England meets Afganistan really, it has a lot going for it. Mild internal politics and one hell of an attitude to outsiders.
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Re: Which Currency will the most stable with peak oil

Unread postby bobbyald » Wed 12 Oct 2005, 17:24:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hich currency do people think will be the most stable with peak oil


The one that has oil backing it.

Currently that is the US dollar. It doesn't really matter how badly the US does if oil backs the dollar i.e. US Troops secure world supplies then every other currency is backed by very little by comparison since their economies collapse.

Unfortunately, the US is unlikely to be able to do this I.M.H.O. but neither will anyone else. So who knows.
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Re: Which Currency will the most stable with peak oil

Unread postby JayBee » Wed 12 Oct 2005, 17:54:07

All these assumptions are based on today, with the US economy where it is now.

When the "shock" comes then the US economy will be third rate and maybe Yuan and Rupee based economies will be the power houses.

Yuan will probably be the currency to hold.

Or friendships. Gold is all very well but not much use if you go to buy something and get robbed on the way. Social currency and barter is perhaps best.

You should be aiming to reduce the need for money. Build a like-minded community and be as self-sustaining as possible. Just like the good old days before oil and bank accounts.
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Re: Which Currency will the most stable with peak oil

Unread postby elroy » Wed 12 Oct 2005, 18:43:35

What I'm wondering is, it could all be fine and dandy that you have gold, but what if someone you're buying from doesn't ? He won't be able to give you any change. Or at least, you'd get something else back. It seems to me to be of limited use.
Unless you're just keeping gold stocked to trade back for a currency when it stabilizes.
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