[EnergySpin]

Well ... It might not be much but I want the doomers to consider the following. After all the resource wars are over, and the earth has been stripped mined and the die-off has turned grandmas into burgers and neighbour's daughters/sons in sex slaves - steaks what might happen to the human species?
I'm talking about the long term genetic impacts which might influence our species. And my time horizon is really long .... I'm talking about a sustainable future here .... thousands of years in the future.
My crystal ball is just the science of population genetics supported by paleoanthropological evidence.

Think about the setting: a resource poor world, a "global" island so to speak.
In such settings the phenomenon of "island dwarfing" has been observed.
This sees isolated species, released from the pressures of predation but constrained by limited resources, evolving either smaller (usually) or larger forms than would otherwise be the case.
This has happened at least once in the history of the human species ....

About 800K year ago our ancestor Homo Erectus moved to the island of Flores in Indonesia ... in this island environment over a few thousands years they became a new species. About 1 meter tall, and with a brain capacity of 380cm3 (this is about 4-5 times less than the current human capacity and 1/3 the brain capacity of Home erectus.

They did seem to have a culture though and rudimentary technology (as discussed in this
BBC Article)
Think about the implications ... isn;t this the real meaning of Odulvai Gorge ... no more humans . A short brainless monkey .....

Thoughts, ideas?

[jato]

We are going to look like the dude on the right hand side of this chart:



1. Pre Industrial Phase [c. 3 000 000 BC to 1765]

A - Tool making (c. 3 000 000 BC)
B - Fire used (c. 1 000 000 BC)
C - Noelithic agricultural revolution (c. 8 000 BC)
D - Watts steam engine of 1765 Industrial Phase (1930-2025)

2. Industrial Phase [1930 to 2025, estimated ]

E - Per capita energy-use 37% of peak value
F - Peak energy-use
G - Present energy-use
H - Per capita energy-use 37% of peak value

3. Post Industrial Phase [c. 2100 and beyond ]

J, K, and L = Recurring future attempts at industrialization fail.
Other scenarios are possible.

[linlithgowoil]

assuming evolution is correct, and it may not be, it doesn't really apply to people anymore because of our technology.

e.g. move black people used to a hot climate to a cold climate (i.e. take a certain variation of a species and put it somewhere its not used to). What would happen? In nature, many of these newly introduced creatures would die off rapidly, meaning their genetics would be removed from the gene pool, though some would remain who had genetic advantages.

This doesnt apply to people. The black people would just go and make/find/buy warm clothes and communicate with the indigenous people about how best to survive. Thus, their genetics remain in the gene pool and arent exterminated at all.

evolution has reached its peak, homo sapiens. once a species masters technology, communication, machinery etc. evolution ends in relation to that species.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')ther scenarios are possible.

[EnergySpin]

No one really appreciated the fine irony.

Well in any case I presented this science news as an indication of what might happen if we "powerdown" to local manure powered utopitas (followed by hunter gatherer utopias). Lin you are wrong about evolution (but I do not expect any religious person to ever get it), but you are right about the impact of technology.
Regarding the Duncan curve .... this is plainly stupid. One can decrease the per unit of material energy consumption of a system and still have a better system. In fact doing more with less, is an indication of "progress"/"evolution" or whatever. Has anyone seen the big computers in the 40s and their power consumption and the relation to the computers today. Power consumption per unit of mass decreased but we have a better computers. Yet according to Odulvai we are heading backwards to the stone age of computers.
This small example should be enough to show the plain stupidity of the Odulvai and the Hubbertians. They have elevated a sharply peaked curve to the status of a natural law.
Laherrere is even more f..d up in this aspect ; he thinks he has discovered a "parabolic fractal" law in the distribution of oil deposits which according to him is a natural which in turns makes certain things inevitable (not just peak oil).
I'm sure that if we wait a few years ... they will have their own temples where (?human) sacrifices on parabolic altars will be served to please the Peak God.

[Raxozanne]

Energyspin, I take your post to mean that better technology will save us.
Oh sorry that was Lin too. Personally I believe that the percentage of people involved in agriculture will slowly increase back to what it was around the turn of the century. Most people will be farming peasants again. This will probably result in stocky, shorter people with lots of back pain.

[Doly]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('linlithgowoil', '
')This doesnt apply to people. The black people would just go and make/find/buy warm clothes and communicate with the indigenous people about how best to survive. Thus, their genetics remain in the gene pool and arent exterminated at all.

[Antimatter]

If we drive cars for thousands of years eventually we will become weak and useless. OTOH if Olduvai fails to materialize then biotech has the potential to totally screw with natural selection and evolution in the longer run. Doomers like to hypothesize that The Great Dieoff/purge/cleansing will get rid of all the "stupid sheeple" and only the enlightened ones who hoarded guns and MRE's will survive. Hate to think what happens after that. Though that scenario in any case requires accepting a level of genetic determinism (J Hanson style) that probably isn't realistic - I doubt one would find any significant genetic differences between POers and non-POers.

[elroy]

The human body is already optimized to retain energy and store fat, this was necessary in the past, it's why so many people are overweight today. We no longer have to keep large stores of energy and fat in our body cause we have an abundency of food all around us, in the western world anyway. But our genes haven't caught up yet since this is such a new phenomenon. Once peak oil hits the gene will prove quite useful, I don't think we'll change much since we already have the right genes waiting for lean times.

[EnergySpin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Raxozanne', 'E')nergyspin, I take your post to mean that better technology will save us.
Oh sorry that was Lin too. Personally I believe that the percentage of people involved in agriculture will slowly increase back to what it was around the turn of the century. Most people will be farming peasants again. This will probably result in stocky, shorter people with lots of back pain.

[DefiledEngine]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Regarding the Duncan curve .... this is plainly stupid. One can decrease the per unit of material energy consumption of a system and still have a better system. In fact doing more with less, is an indication of "progress"/"evolution" or whatever. Has anyone seen the big computers in the 40s and their power consumption and the relation to the computers today. Power consumption per unit of mass decreased but we have a better computers. Yet according to Odulvai we are heading backwards to the stone age of computers.
This small example should be enough to show the plain stupidity of the Odulvai and the Hubbertians. They have elevated a sharply peaked curve to the status of a natural law.

[Andrew_S]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('linlithgowoil', 'a')ssuming evolution is correct, and it may not be, it doesn't really apply to people anymore because of our technology.

e.g. move black people used to a hot climate to a cold climate (i.e. take a certain variation of a species and put it somewhere its not used to). What would happen? In nature, many of these newly introduced creatures would die off rapidly, meaning their genetics would be removed from the gene pool, though some would remain who had genetic advantages.

This doesnt apply to people. The black people would just go and make/find/buy warm clothes and communicate with the indigenous people about how best to survive. Thus, their genetics remain in the gene pool and arent exterminated at all.

evolution has reached its peak, homo sapiens. once a species masters technology, communication, machinery etc. evolution ends in relation to that species.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')ther scenarios are possible.

[rogerhb]

Evolution's premis is quite simple, at any one point in time, only those species able to survive will survive. The ones that can't, won't. The "magic" that humans have as a species is our adaptability, we survived the ice-age and can survive in very hot climates. However the more extreme the climate the lower the carrying capacity.

The olduvai theory is very plausable. It's not a matter of believing a theory it's more a case of which are plausable and match the facts.

Take away the ghost acreage provided by fossil fuels and we can easily imagine a die-off, so simply put, there will be less of us, and the survivors of that will have been through the mill.

Depending on what plays out over the next few decades we may become very distrustful of large groups, of foreigners, of money, of trade, or of religion.

[Dezakin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he olduvai theory is very plausable. It's not a matter of believing a theory it's more a case of which are plausable and match the facts.

[bobcousins]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', '
')Boom! Boom! Boom!

[Dezakin]

Okay, bob. Have you any indication that nuclear wont serve our industrial needs?

This entire board is filled with doomers that wont let facts get in the way of a good mad max scenario.

[Egon_1]

Dezakin,

I think most "doomers" are considering the complete contribution of oil. Nuclear is great for electricity, but it does not provide any chemical feed stocks or liquid fuels.

[waegari]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', 'O')kay, bob. Have you any indication that nuclear wont serve our industrial needs?

This entire board is filled with doomers that wont let facts get in the way of a good mad max scenario.

[Dezakin]

Egon:$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') think most "doomers" are considering the complete contribution of oil. Nuclear is great for electricity, but it does not provide any chemical feed stocks or liquid fuels.

[waegari]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', '
')
Breeder reactors running only on uranium ores extend fuel supply by about 60-120 fold.

[Dezakin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')f which you will probably know there are not too many in the world, and it will take quite some time to build plenty of them, for which of course the use of fossile fuels is indispensable.