[Desire]

What should the "right" view be on farm subsidies given awareness of Peak Oil and its consequences?

[k_semler]

How about ending CRP? Getting paid not to farm a section of your land is just assanine in light of what humanity as a whole is facing.

[Ludi]

All the aging farmers should retire. They don't owe anyone anything, in my opinion, and have done enough damage.

Scrap the system (incrementally) and encourage sustainable techniques.

Like that's going to happen.

[DomusAlbion]

Ludi said:
"Scrap the system (incrementally) and encourage sustainable techniques."

Nice dream, Ludi, we certainly need more sustainable farming in this nation, but Agri business is just that, a business and they will continue their current practices until they are no longer profitable.

It will be up to individuals, such as us, to create self sustaining farming. If I can get just one of my 3 sons to take over what my wife and I establish then I will see my efforts as a success. If two or all 4 of our children come to our farm and adopt our philosophy then I'll be ecstatic.

[cmlek]

I guess the "right" answer depends on what you consider inevitable consequences of peak oil. If you believe that the planet's carrying capacity has been overshot, and some people are going/need to die, then a view of 100% intolerance of subsidies would be appropriate. There will be very little food in a very short time, and people will die sooner than later. If you prefer a slower decline in the human population, farm subsidies and their attendant large crop yields will be very necessary to feed a population that might otherwise riot/revolt.

Personally, I feel that farm subsidies are still necessary, but need to be accompanied by some sort of PR campaign/subsidy to teach normal people large gardening and organic farming skills. For example, as I start to produce more of my own food, my need to buy from a farmer is reduced. Multiply this by several hundred people per farmer, and then the farmer is freed to move to organic farming methods, and is still covered during the lag time when his field is rebuilding fertility and yields are not as high.

Honestly, I feel nothing good can come of completely removing farm subsidies, as it will only accelerate the process of farmers selling off their farms to real estate companies or large corporations. That helps no one. Despite their dubious sustainability, I think if oil were to be slowly cut off from various areas of American life, farm aids (seeds, fertilizer, pesticide) would continue far longer than most people expect. In a perfect world, I'd love to see subsidies continue for large farms that plant a variety of foods, rather than monocroppers.

I'm curious - as times get tighter (in terms of water, food and energy), does anyone think that perhaps the government may force energy-intensive practices like factory cattle farms to reduce or close down? (Or do you think that the court of public opinion could force something like that?)

[pip]

My dad tells me of a time back in the 70's when subsidies were almost completely stopped due to the profitability of farming. If there is a shortage of food due to peak oil there will be no need for subsidies.

Low prices for ag products is what makes farming unprofitable. The price of wheat is unchanged from 30 years ago. Maybe 10% of the costs of farming are attributable to fuel costs currently. A significant rise in commodity prices will more than make up for fuel prices due to peak oil. I see agriculture as being one of the last industries to stop using oil.

[nero]

Subsidies are silly with respect to peak oil. It subsidizes cheep food while we have cheep energy allowing our world non-farm population to grow very quickly. Some day the world governments are not going to be able to afford the subsidies (PO induced depression) and the food prices are going to increase quickly. In my opinion that is likely to be the real reason for any sudden food price spike around PO, not the price of oil used in agriculture and distribution.

[Jake_old]

In the FT today, front page news is that the US will offer to end farm export subsidies in 5 years and cut its domestic subsidies.

Apparently this is to revive negotiations which are stagnating.

It occurs to me, that if Peak is around the corner, all nations will need to be more self sufficient in food production and scraping subsidies would lead to a more local market for American food production. (Or any nation that scraps them).

Ok I'm not an economist, may be wrong.

What I think is clever is that the Americans are offering to do this like its a gesture of good will, when in fact they may need to do it anyway.

A funny bit of the article says that these cuts were demanded by Peter Mandelson.

WTF! so what. Are we supposed to belive that the American Admin gives a flying fart what Mandelson wants.

[MrBill]

I am also not an expert, but America drastically increased farm subsidies a few years ago ahead of the Doho Round which is why the Mexico WTO meetings fell apart in acrimony.

This may be an olive branch or a fig leaf or a negotiating strategy. Offer to cut subsidies knowing full well that the French under CAP will not allow the EU to cut theirs, therefore making the EU look like the bad guys. By the way, the UK wants a cut in EU ag subsidies in return for scrapping their own EU rebate, which France wants it to do. Therefore, the US is just supporting the UK over France on this issue.

However, cutting subsidies might jump start the Doho round again as developing nations have insisted cuts by rich countries were necessary in order to liberalize other services sectors.

Regional development aid, not tied to production, would be in any case more suitable as a policy tool. But, we are a long way from an informal announcement to an actual agreement. I am sure many in Congress would look to protect their own constituent's special interests whether it is rice, cotton or corn?

In any case, a step in the right direction to be sure. Less pork in the US and more bread on the table of developing nations.

[Jake_old]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n any case, a step in the right direction to be sure. Less pork in the US and more bread on the table of developing nations.

[lowem]

Hmm, deja vu. Didn't we see this in a movie somewhere before?
So when are the Russian tankers coming?

[Jake_old]

I don't know lowem, was that in oil storm? I have seen it once but don't remember that bit.

[Specop_007]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', '
')In any case, a step in the right direction to be sure. Less pork in the US and more bread on the table of developing nations.

[Jake_old]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'd')eveloping nations would be unable to afford the food at those prices

[MrBill]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')rBill wrote:

In any case, a step in the right direction to be sure. Less pork in the US and more bread on the table of developing nations.

[lawnchair]

Hmm... would this include highly subsidized ethanol and biodiesel farming?

[BabyPeanut]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lowem', 'H')mm, deja vu. Didn't we see this in a movie somewhere before?
So when are the Russian tankers coming?

[MrBill]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')mm... would this include highly subsidized ethanol and biodiesel farming?

[smiffy]

Forgive me, but Tony Blair was advising the french they should move away from localized small farming as farming employs less than 5 % of the french workforce and they should invest CAP money in science and technology, Blair advised the french that they should be moving towards industral farming like Britain, now again: Forgive me but is this guy nuts?

He wants the french to move to an unsubstanable form of farming so europe can invest in technology and all this coming from a country that is already experiencing energy problems?

If i were the french, i would be keeping my localized small farms with any subsidy i could get, because the french will need the farmers to feed a post peak france?


Who will feed the Brits? Tony Blairs misguided imagination?

[jdmartin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Specop_007', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', '
')In any case, a step in the right direction to be sure. Less pork in the US and more bread on the table of developing nations.