[Graeme]

Make your own forecasts of future energy, carbon emissions, and climate

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he result is typically several tens of terawatts of carbon-free energy will be required by the end of the century. For comparison, global energy production today is about 13 terawatts.

Where could this energy come from? Pacala and Socolow [2004] propose a solution (only good to 2050, not 2100) based on a combination of technologies and conservation strategies.

[EnergySpin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Graeme', '[')b]Make your own forecasts of future energy, carbon emissions, and climate

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he result is typically several tens of terawatts of carbon-free energy will be required by the end of the century. For comparison, global energy production today is about 13 terawatts.

Where could this energy come from? Pacala and Socolow [2004] propose a solution (only good to 2050, not 2100) based on a combination of technologies and conservation strategies.

[Graeme]

Hi EnergySpin, Nice to hear from you. So you can see that our energy and environmental problems can be solved provided we move completely away from fossil fuels. But we can't do that just yet because we haven't got any where near enough alternative fuels or an alternative transport system yet. And we've barely started building clean energy systems. The transition to a post-carbon future will be difficult to say the least. The big three energy sources mentioned above - solar, wind and geothermal (and I will add some nuclear) - are the ones that we will rely on in the 21st century. I just just found this link which brought up (to me) an unexpected problem:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he Altamont Pass in California, for example, kills an estimated 1,700 to 4,700 birds a year, including between 880 and 1,300 federally protected raptors such as burrowing owls, red-tailed hawks and golden eagles. Meanwhile, thousands of bats have been killed by wind turbines on wind farms in West Virginia and Pennsylvania.

[EnergySpin]

The time horizon is 50 years .... carbon is being phased out, the rest is phased in.
Nuclear will be a big component (i.e. instead of coal) , while we figure a way to handle grids based on intermittent power sources. Climate change will require MORE (carbon free) not LESS electricity ; everyone who thinks otherwise is either a fool or an eco-fascist who wants the human vermin exterminated.

The only problem is transportation fuel, but only if one adopts the perspective that everyone needs a car. If one does not .... then it can dealth with the remaining liquid FFs and a contribution from cellulosic ethanol and biodiesel.
I will not respond to any posts that try to throw Pimentel on me about that. I did read the articles (as opposed to everyone else here and at energybulletin.net) , did my homework (meaning I found operational data about biorefineries) and know he was wrong.
Re: wind turbines, this has been researched thoroughly. The numbers are over-inflated and most importantly they reflect the old smaller turbines (they spin faster), than the mega-monsters we are currently deploying around the world.

My 2c

[Antimatter]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergySpin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Graeme', '[')b]Make your own forecasts of future energy, carbon emissions, and climate

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he result is typically several tens of terawatts of carbon-free energy will be required by the end of the century. For comparison, global energy production today is about 13 terawatts.

Where could this energy come from? Pacala and Socolow [2004] propose a solution (only good to 2050, not 2100) based on a combination of technologies and conservation strategies.

[EnergySpin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Antimatter', '
')

Realclimate.org is anti carbon, its a blog done by climate scientists! Usually has good discussion. You might be thinking of co2science.org (coal lobby funded).

[Starvid]

Problem is developing countries will get what is cheapest, and they are the ones who will increase generation capacity the most since our grids are mature while theirs are not. And the cheapest is coal/gas/nuclear, not solar/wind/geothermal. Let's pray they go for nuclear.

[Graeme]

Cost prices for hydro, geothermal and wind are comparable and the cheapest renewables. Nuclear has very large up front costs probably not affordable for developing countries. For instance, the Philippines has been developing its geothermal resources over the last 40 years and it continues to do so; they did not go ahead with their planned nuclear plant at Bataan.

Geothermal WorldCongress2005

[Starvid]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Graeme', 'C')ost prices for hydro, geothermal and wind are comparable and the cheapest renewables. Nuclear has very large up front costs probably not affordable for developing countries. For instance, the Philippines has been developing its geothermal resources over the last 40 years and it continues to do so; they did not go ahead with their planned nuclear plant at Bataan.

Geothermal WorldCongress2005

[joe1347]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shakespear1', 'W')ow, now we have another brainyek telling us his vision of the future. Funny that with so many Nobel winners etc. we are in this sad state.

He doesn't know what will happen next week much less in 2050. So this sounds like another Talking Head.

[Graeme]

Starvid, The prices for renewables are quoted in the abstract of a paper entitled "Geothermal Energy amongst the World’s Energy Sources" by Ingvar B. Fridleifsson

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A') comparison of the renewable energy sources (data from the UN World Energy Assessment Report update, 2004) shows the current electrical energy cost to be 2-10 UScents/kWh for geothermal and hydro, 4-8 UScents/kWh for wind, 3-12 UScents/kWh for biomass, 25-160 UScents/kWh for solarphotovoltaic and 12-34 UScents/kWh for solar thermal electricity.

[Graeme]

I just found another reference to the geothermal potential in the western USA. There is at least 25TW undeveloped and possibly up to 127 TW of undiscovered geothermal energy resources in USA:

http://www.renewableenergyaccess.com/re ... y?id=35998

[katkinkate]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shakespear1', 'W')ow, now we have another brainyek telling us his vision of the future. Funny that with so many Nobel winners etc. we are in this sad state.

He doesn't know what will happen next week much less in 2050. So this sounds like another Talking Head.

[Starvid]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A') comparison of the renewable energy sources (data from the UN World Energy Assessment Report update, 2004) shows the current electrical energy cost to be 2-10 UScents/kWh for geothermal and hydro, 4-8 UScents/kWh for wind, 3-12 UScents/kWh for biomass, 25-160 UScents/kWh for solarphotovoltaic and 12-34 UScents/kWh for solar thermal electricity.

You can see that geothermal is comparable in cost to hydro. The potential for generation of electrical energy from geothermal in USA is enormous. (See above, about 40TW). Fridleifsson points out that geothermal energy can also be used just about anywhere in the world to supply heat pumps for heating or cooling.

[joe1347]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' '). . . Thank you for providing yet another link to Dr Smalley's efforts in finding solutions to our energy (and other) problems. Hopefully your political leaders will take notice of what your academics are saying.

[Graeme]

Starvid,
As you can see in previous posts, USA has enormous geothermal resources too. New Zealand has been producing electricity from the Wairakei geothermal field since 1958. I will ask the geothermal engineers at Wairakei how much geothermal development costs here when I go back within 2 weeks.

joe1347, I don't understand your political persuasion. First you say your politicians are slow then you slam the Democrats. When do you think we will reach peak oil? It seems to me that your corporations are reacting faster than your politicians.

[ChumpusRex]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'U')SA has enormous geothermal resources too. New Zealand has been producing electricity from the Wairakei geothermal field since 1958

[Graeme]

Press Release from ABS Energy Research

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'G')eothermal power projects are characterised by high capital investment for exploration, drilling wells and installation of plant, but low operating costs because of the low marginal cost of fuel.

[Graeme]

I've just been reading the latest (24th September) issue of New Scientist. On page 32, you will find an interesting article by Ray Kurtzweil about the exponential growth of technology. Of interest to our readers is a paragraph on page 35 where he says "nanotechnology-based manufacturing will enable us to apply computerised techniques to automatically assemble complex products at the molecular level. This will mean that by the mid-2020's we will be able to meet our energy needs using very inexpensive nanotechnology-based solar panels".

PS. I've asked senior staff at Contact Energy about the cost of geothermal development in New Zealand. They will come back to me. Regarding the life-time of exploited geothermal fields, this greatly depends on how the extraction of fluids is managed, reinjection techniques, and the depth of geothermal wells. In the Philippines, a 600MW power plant induces 600m of drawdown in the reservoir from 3km deep wells. Wells in NZ are generally shallower (~600m) but deeper (1-2km) wells are now being drilled.

[Dezakin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')'ve just been reading the latest (24th September) issue of New Scientist. On page 32, you will find an interesting article by Ray Kurtzweil about the exponential growth of technology. Of interest to our readers is a paragraph on page 35 where he says "nanotechnology-based manufacturing will enable us to apply computerised techniques to automatically assemble complex products at the molecular level. This will mean that by the mid-2020's we will be able to meet our energy needs using very inexpensive nanotechnology-based solar panels".