by Doly » Thu 06 Oct 2005, 07:17:59
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bobcousins', '
')I think even a basic analysis shows that something more subtle and sophisticated governs people's behaviour at both a personal and international level. For example, risk aversion. When the stakes get too high, people don't play even when logically they should. The logic of game theory out of RAND said that the US should preemptively nuke USSR while the US had nuclear advantage. Fortunately, successive US presidents dd not follow this advice.
That would be a very convincing argument if nukes had never ever been used in history. BUT they have been used. I can accept that, at the time they were used, the risks of radiation were poorly understood, and nowadays a nuke looks like a much riskier option. Still, I cannot rule out completely the possibility that somebody, somewhere, will think that a nuke is the solution to their particular military problem.