[Chaparral]

I'm at PO defcon 4. I am assuming that as the economy takes a dump, the poor and infirm will lose what safety net they have. Medical care will be even less available then it is now to them and that is where the human dieoff will occur at least in the US. Maybe there will be food-shortages in the cities and 'burbs like the Great Depression. I expect to see civil unrest and violent crime soar into the stratosphere as unemployment hits 10% then 15% then 25% and who knows...40? 60%?

I am guessing that climate change will pull the rug out from underneath India and Africa...Brazil will eliminate the last of the Amazon and then what? I expect a dieoff elsewhere allright......

Eventually I hypothesize that we will probably get some semblance of our current consumerist society back on track until we hit peak coal and peak uranium or the glaciers show up one winter and stay for the next 6000 years.

The situation is dynamic though. I could go to doomerosity level 4.5 to 5 and it doesn't depend on my mood either.

[johnmarkos]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('johnmarkos', 'I')'m between 2 and 3 too, with the caveat that . . . well, who the hell knows? Anything could happen. That's the fun of trying to figure out what's going to happen in the future. But over a year on this forum has convinced me that PO is just a small piece of the sustainability puzzle. We tend to perceive the problem of the moment as larger than it actually is. And we perceive the problem of the century as smaller than it actually is.

[jato]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')SPO's graph backs me up here (PDF). Their predicted oil + gas production for 2040 is approximately equal to that for 1998.

[eastbay]

Five. There's no way we can have 6.5 billion without plentiful and inexpensive oil. The population curve will closely mirror the depletion curve. But it will be far, far more interesting to see than a simple line on a graph.

[johnmarkos]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jato', 'N')atural gas, if you continue to live in North America come 2040, is going to be virtually non-existent unless we install a massive LNG infrastructure.

[PrairieMule]

I am a optimistic 3.

I think the potiential for a 4 or 5 is there. Should TSHF, I personally plan to bug out to the family ranch and raise cattle.

I am not sure if it was Dad shoving Norman Vincent Peale down my throat or Mom dragging me to church but whatever hand we are dealt I will remain positive and not withdraw into a bunker mentality. Please do not confuse my pollyanna attitude with being a chump. Someone pulls a gun or ties to harm me take your chances sport and l've made my peace with god-have you?

If I have extra food or shelter I will share it. I think we need to look to the British resolve during the Battle of Brittan and be inspired.

What can I say, that's how I roll..

Have faith American-We will pull our shit together.

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PrairieMule', '
')
Have faith American-We will pull our shit together.

[PrairieMule]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PrairieMule', '
')
Have faith American-We will pull our shit together.

[janser]

I voted 5. There are many problems, not only peak-oil. I just dont see 9 billion people getting by without a massive supply of oil. We have 6.5 billion now, but it might reach 9 billion by 2050. Just how are we gonna feed them, without the oil? Then there is the global warming, aids, lost of agriculture land etc...

[stu]

I gonna go with 4.

I got into PO through Savinar and End of Surburbia so ended up with a bit of Doomers mindset. Since then I've decided to sit on the fence, stop making outlandish predictions and just watch the show unfold.

Though there are major changes ahead with a reduction in the global population during my lifetime.

[nitpnz]

I would have rated myself at 3, with occassional dips into deep gloom since 1970's oil crisis when the inevitability of oil supply decline first imposed itself on my mind.

Since then I have broadened what I hope is my own survivor skills, and passed them on to as many people as would listen.

I recently purchased Ronald Wright's "A short History Of Progress". [http://anansi.ca/titles.cfm?pub_id=231] This was the catalyst that brought all my thoughts into words.

I recommend his book to anyone who is doubtful about the urgency to adapt and survive changes

[peaker_2005]

Ok.

What I forsee is a series of two or three economic crashes. The first is on the verge of happening. This will merely be a recession.

I forsee this being followed by a brief recovery, probably followed by the 'big one' - the "Realignment" (or, in more clear terms, a major depression).

I also see the distinct possibility - indeed, likelihood of significant dieoff - particularly in the 3rd world. There will likely be smaller ones in the economies of the 1st world.

Now, while I'm hardly a professional economist, I did do economics in year 12 and had a knack for it (about 80% with pretty much no study) so I do have an understanding of the basic concepts.

I do, however, disagree with the concept of non-finite supplies of oil (which is quite frankly ridiculous - almost everything is finite, though often in such volumes as to give the illusion of infinity).

Where does that put me? probably somewhere between 4 and 5. There is going to be some serious smackdown dished out.