[sol]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'b')ackstop,but the news moves on and even here at PO.com
hurriane damage to infrastructure seems to be a stale and forgotten topic
just ain't news anymore, eh?
how many weeks of lost prodn will it take before the useless MSM and "easy motoring" sheeple wake up to the fact that its
GAME OVER

[Pops]

What is the status of the big hydrogen plant that was knocked out?

Sour crude needs hydrogen to be processed I believe.

[tokyo_to_motueka]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'W')hat is the status of the big hydrogen plant that was knocked out?
Sour crude needs hydrogen to be processed I believe.

[Pops]

This story says Air Products hopes to have the plant up by years end.

I think I read they supply a large percentage of the hydrogen used in the refineries but I can’t find that link.

[tokyo_to_motueka]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '[')url=http://www.mcall.com/business/local/all-airprodsfolosep29,0,630460.story?coll=all-businesslocal-hed]This story[/url] says Air Products hopes to have the plant up by years end.
I think I read they supply a large percentage of the hydrogen used in the refineries but I can’t find that link.

[tokyo_to_motueka]

Daily Report on Hurricane Impacts on U.S. Energy as of Wed 5 Oct 4 pm $this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')As Hurricane Rita approached, 16 refineries along the Gulf Coast shut down as a precautionary measure and to allow employees to evacuate, and as today, 9 are completely shutdown. In sum, there are 4 refineries still shut down in the New Orleans area following Hurricane Katrina, 7 shut down in the Port Arthur and Lake Charles areas, and 2 shut down in the Houston/Texas City/Galveston refining area, amounting to a total of over 3.1 million barrels per day of refining capacity that is currently offline. This accounts for nearly 1.4 million barrels per day of gasoline, about 750,000 barrels per day of distillate fuel, and nearly 400,000 barrels per day of jet fuel that is not being produced as long as these refineries remain shutdown.

[pup55]

Since things have settled down a little bit we can make some estimates:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_code('', ' 04 cons 04 prod shut in mo prod inv draw cum draw
oct 1,558,202 1,562,761 206850 1,355,911 202,291 --
nov 1,784,133 1,530,991 206850 1,324,141 459,992 662,283
dec 2,325,994 1,598,965 206850 1,392,115 933,879 1,596,162
jan 2,606,190 1,613,346 206850 1,406,496 1,199,694 2,795,856
feb 2,258,627 1,464,445 206850 1,257,595 1,001,032 3,796,888
mar 2,216,260 1,610,021 206850 1,403,171 813,089 4,609,977')
The current US inventory is 2,929,000 mcf
The above table gives 2004-2005 (last year's ) consumption and production figures. A review of the data says this is pretty typical.
Current shut-in natural gas in the GOM is 6,895 mcf per day, The situation has been improving by about 1% per day. That's 208,000 mcf per month.

If (and it's a big if) consumption and production are at the same rate as last year, and the GOM shortfall does not change, the inventory of NG will be down to zero at some time in January.
If someone would wave a magic wand, and fix all of the GOM production tomorrow, the inventory will be down to zero by the end of February.
Luckily, as we posted elsewhere, a lot of the big industrial consumers along the gulf coast are down due to the hurricane, so it might be that consumption will be lower than last year.
So, we are faced with the prospect of NG shortages at or about the time of the Super Bowl even if there is a magic repair job.

On the bright side, if there is a bright side, about 1/3 of the consumption is for industrial use. The remaining 2/3 are for residential and consumer use. So, pretty easy to shut some of the bigger industrial users, and let the chips fall where they may, except that this will also put people out of work, right about the time of the Super Bowl, so as to let people not freeze.

[Leanan]

Damn. Deffeyes is predicting peak oil on Thanksgiving Day. You're predicting no NG on Super Bowl Sunday. This peak oil thing is really putting a damper on football season.

[pup55]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')nterior Secretary Gale Norton said Tuesday that while the production shortfall will mean high prices for natural gas this winter, there should be no widespread shortages of the fuel.

[Pops]

Pup, where exactly is this storage located?

Is it in old wells or above ground tanks or liquefied or…

[Pops]

And here is one more question: does anyone know off the top of their head wat percentage of NG demand goes to electrical generation?

[mgibbons19]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('tokyo_to_motueka', 'h')ow many weeks of lost prodn will it take before
the useless MSM and "easy motoring" sheeple
wake up to the fact that its GAME OVER

[SchroedingersCat]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'A')nd here is one more question: does anyone know off the top of their head wat percentage of NG demand goes to electrical generation?

[Pops]

Thanks cat.
50% of use is residence and electrical generation -average. Overview

[tokyo_to_motueka]

as pup55 pointed out, and as i said on another thread a week ago, US residential users are not going to face NAtGas supply disruptions.
if supply falls short, they'll cut off the petrochemical industry and other big industrial users. if there are still shortages after that, it's bye-bye to the electric utilities.
what is going to hit consumers is the cost, though.
i would love to see some estimates of Mid West and Northeast average household increases in these expenses (in dollars, not %):
gasoline
heating oil/nat gas
electricity
but this is an infrastructure thread, so back to the reality that no one cares about this stuff anyway.

[BabyPeanut]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('tokyo_to_motueka', 'i')f supply falls short, they'll cut off the petrochemical industry and other big industrial users.

[UncoveringTruths]

I dont really think this deserves its own thread yet but here it goes. Maybe the thread should be non specific of a single Hurricane event.$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he state-owned oil monopoly Petroleos Mexicanos, or Pemex, said Stan disrupted an unspecified amount of output Tuesday as it swept through the Gulf of Mexico, but that it hopes to have those operations running again Wednesday.
The company's three Gulf coast crude-oil loading ports — Coatzacoalcos, Dos Bocas and Cayo Arcas — were shut down, but this wasn't expected to affect oil prices. The ports handle most of the 1.8 million barrels a day of crude oil exported by Pemex. Five exploratory oil platforms were evacuated Monday.
Pemex is the world's third-largest oil producer, and most of its exports are sent to the United States.

[FrankRichards]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'W')hat is the status of the big hydrogen plant that was knocked out?
Sour crude needs hydrogen to be processed I believe.

[Pops]

Thanks Frank.

[NoOilinTarHeels]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('tokyo_to_motueka', 'i')f supply falls short, they'll cut off the petrochemical industry and other big industrial users. if there are still shortages after that, it's bye-bye to the electric utilities.
In the EIA Weekly Gas Storage Report it shows Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with 5-Year Range
The graph that goes with this caption (I couldn't figure out how to copy/paste the graph itself - first time post - help) shows there is around 700 bcf of NG left in supply in April/May of any given year.
Futher, From the MMS 10/7 press release - "The cumulative shut-in gas production 8/26/05-10/7/05 is 246.471 BCF