Project delays 'drive up price' of oil
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')elays of big oil projects are helping to drive oil prices higher as energy companies become increasingly unreliable at delivering production from new oilfields on time, a recent analysts' report has warned.
Oil production in 2007 will be 2m barrels a day less than expected because companies are increasingly having to delay the date at which their projects deliver their first barrels of oil, according to Sanford Bernstein, an international research group.
“The industry is truly dreadful at project management, or at least at predicting the timing of project start-ups. The amount of production growth that has been lost to projects being delayed over the past few years is stunning, over 2m b/d 2.3 per cent of expected global production in 2007,” the report said.
As a result Bernstein believes annual supply growth will slow to 1 per cent in the next decade, compared with the 2 per cent expected by many other analysts including those at the International Energy Agency, the industrialised countries' watchdog agency.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')The problem is caused by companies having to venture into increasingly difficult terrain and use untested technology as the world runs out of big, easy-to-find oilfields.
PeakOil is You
Major-project delays to speed up peak?
Major-project delays to speed up peak?
by tokyo_to_motueka » Fri 30 Sep 2005, 02:29:35
Meanwhile, new competitors attracted by high oil prices have made hiring exploration rigs increasingly difficult. The project delays are particularly serious in today's tight market conditions where the world's oil producing states are barely managing to keep up with strong demand, especially from the US and China.
Had the 40 large oil projects that Sanford Bernstein studied been delivered on time, the world's spare oil capacity would be double today's volume of 1.3m b/d. “Thus, it could be argued that this effect has been a direct, contributory driver of current oil prices,” Bernstein said.
The longer-term prognosis also looks bad. John S. Herold, the industry consulting and research firm, said in a report released yesterday that worldwide oil reserves had “barely changed in 2004, the poorest performance by the sector in many years”.
Total year-end reserves were up only 2.8 per cent, with companies spending more on share buy-backs than on exploration, said Tom Biracree, vice-president at John S. Herold.
Last edited by tokyo_to_motueka on Mon 03 Oct 2005, 07:13:07, edited 1 time in total.
-
tokyo_to_motueka - Coal
- Posts: 486
- Joined: Tue 19 Oct 2004, 03:00:00
- Location: Tochigi
Re: Sanford Bernstein "Project delays" report in F
by Liamj » Fri 30 Sep 2005, 03:42:34
Given rates of depletion, doesn't this (megaproj delays) have to have the effect of bringing production peak closer? 
Hopefully ODAC will do an update adjusting for these, but if they're too busy beating fools in suits over the head with the previous one, thats fine by me too (suggestion for Chris S. - wrap them in steel plate first).
Hopefully ODAC will do an update adjusting for these, but if they're too busy beating fools in suits over the head with the previous one, thats fine by me too (suggestion for Chris S. - wrap them in steel plate first).
-
Liamj - Tar Sands
- Posts: 864
- Joined: Wed 08 Dec 2004, 04:00:00
- Location: 145'2"E 37'46"S
Re: Sanford Bernstein "Project delays" report in F
by Taskforce_Unity » Sat 01 Oct 2005, 05:34:19
This brings the peak around 2 years closer if this trend continues according to my analysis. I added a scenario which incorporates these disruptions/delays, release of my research will probably be somewhere next week (delayed another week, sorry for that but hey i want to do it right 
)
And don't trust ODAC's analysis too much (nor CERA's), both have some problems establishing depletion and incorporating projects.
ODAC only projects above 100.000 (there are a lot below 100.000). And depletion was estimated based on 1 year change in the BP statistical review, and this was NET depletion over which projects were added.
It gives an indication but is way off the actual situation to my opinion
)
And don't trust ODAC's analysis too much (nor CERA's), both have some problems establishing depletion and incorporating projects.
ODAC only projects above 100.000 (there are a lot below 100.000). And depletion was estimated based on 1 year change in the BP statistical review, and this was NET depletion over which projects were added.
It gives an indication but is way off the actual situation to my opinion
-
Taskforce_Unity - Coal
- Posts: 479
- Joined: Mon 22 Nov 2004, 04:00:00
- Location: Holland
Re: Sanford Bernstein "Project delays" report in F
by tokyo_to_motueka » Mon 03 Oct 2005, 07:00:59
CERA press release, February 15, 2005
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '')Although concerns are growing in some quarters that the world is nearing a peak in oil production, after which it will plateau and then decline, in CERA’s view, setting aside above-ground political and security issues, world oil production capacity through 2010 points toward continued growth in both non-OPEC and OPEC liquid production capacity,” Jackson told the briefing.
CERA projects total liquids capacity will rise almost 20% to 101.5 million barrels per day (mbd) by 2010, with approximately equal increases from non-OPEC (+7.6 mbd) and OPEC (+8.9 mbd) countries. Increases are expected in all of the OPEC countries, except Indonesia which will remain flat, with a large proportion of the overall increase coming from major projects in the deepwater areas of Brazil, Nigeria, Angola and the Gulf of Mexico. Other significant contributions are expected from the Caspian region and Canadian Oil Sands, with the rate of liquids capacity decline being arrested in some countries by government initiatives, including new approaches to asset management, new technology, and even surprises with the drillbit.
“To be sure, there are risks to supply growth,” Jackson said, indicating the primary risk is the possibility of delays to major projects at the sanction stage and through construction, as well as the possibility of higher field decline rates in some areas or reductions in resource additions through exploration or field upgrades. “Perhaps the most unpredictable and sensitive factor is evaluating the impact of political events on productive capacity as illustrated currently in Iraq, Venezuela, Nigeria and Russia.” Many of these factors are built in to CERA’s outlook for oil production capacity, he added.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '')Although concerns are growing in some quarters that the world is nearing a peak in oil production, after which it will plateau and then decline, in CERA’s view, setting aside above-ground political and security issues, world oil production capacity through 2010 points toward continued growth in both non-OPEC and OPEC liquid production capacity,” Jackson told the briefing.
CERA projects total liquids capacity will rise almost 20% to 101.5 million barrels per day (mbd) by 2010, with approximately equal increases from non-OPEC (+7.6 mbd) and OPEC (+8.9 mbd) countries. Increases are expected in all of the OPEC countries, except Indonesia which will remain flat, with a large proportion of the overall increase coming from major projects in the deepwater areas of Brazil, Nigeria, Angola and the Gulf of Mexico. Other significant contributions are expected from the Caspian region and Canadian Oil Sands, with the rate of liquids capacity decline being arrested in some countries by government initiatives, including new approaches to asset management, new technology, and even surprises with the drillbit.
“To be sure, there are risks to supply growth,” Jackson said, indicating the primary risk is the possibility of delays to major projects at the sanction stage and through construction, as well as the possibility of higher field decline rates in some areas or reductions in resource additions through exploration or field upgrades. “Perhaps the most unpredictable and sensitive factor is evaluating the impact of political events on productive capacity as illustrated currently in Iraq, Venezuela, Nigeria and Russia.” Many of these factors are built in to CERA’s outlook for oil production capacity, he added.
they seem to have ovelooked the risk of climate change delaying projects.
specifically, continuing heightened hurricane activity delaying large and small projects in the GOM.
although the news is focused on lost current GOM production, there is also the impact on exploration and development of new projects.
so if US demand continues to grow, the imported component will rise faster than previously predicted owing to delays in bringing new GOM production on-line.
this will surely reduce spare global capacity and eat into new capacity in a long-term way, even after the hrricane damage is fixed.
-
tokyo_to_motueka - Coal
- Posts: 486
- Joined: Tue 19 Oct 2004, 03:00:00
- Location: Tochigi
Re: Sanford Bernstein "Project delays" report in F
by tokyo_to_motueka » Mon 03 Oct 2005, 07:10:46
reuters
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')P Thunder Horse platform update--BP disagrees with OPEC assessment of platform readiness
NEW YORK, Aug 18 (Reuters) - BP Plc on Thursday distanced itself from an estimate by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries that its $1 billion Thunder Horse platform in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico would delay inaugural output by six months.
"That information isn't based on information from BP," said spokesman Ronnie Chappell.
BP workers who returned to the platform after being evacuated by Hurricane Dennis last month discovered that the facility was listing at 20 to 30 degrees.
Thunder Horse, one of biggest hopes for a rise in US oil production, had been due to being production sometime in the last three months of 2005.
But Lord John Browne, BP's top executive, said after workers levelled the platform that it was unlikely to come on stream before the end of the year.
In its monthly report on Wednesday, OPEC trimmed its estimate of non-OPEC supply growth in 2006, in part, because of what it said would be a half-year Thunder Horse delay.
The semi-submersible platform, the largest of its kind in the world, is due to produce 250,000 barrels of oil per day at its peak, or about 17 percent of current U.S. crude output from the Gulf of Mexico.
Chappell stopped short of saying the OPEC estimate was wrong, but he said the company wouldn't know the platform's output schedule until the end of its investigation into what caused the tilt.
Chappell said BP would make public Thunder Horse's schedule when its third quarter earnings come out in the end of October.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')P Thunder Horse platform update--BP disagrees with OPEC assessment of platform readiness
NEW YORK, Aug 18 (Reuters) - BP Plc on Thursday distanced itself from an estimate by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries that its $1 billion Thunder Horse platform in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico would delay inaugural output by six months.
"That information isn't based on information from BP," said spokesman Ronnie Chappell.
BP workers who returned to the platform after being evacuated by Hurricane Dennis last month discovered that the facility was listing at 20 to 30 degrees.
Thunder Horse, one of biggest hopes for a rise in US oil production, had been due to being production sometime in the last three months of 2005.
But Lord John Browne, BP's top executive, said after workers levelled the platform that it was unlikely to come on stream before the end of the year.
In its monthly report on Wednesday, OPEC trimmed its estimate of non-OPEC supply growth in 2006, in part, because of what it said would be a half-year Thunder Horse delay.
The semi-submersible platform, the largest of its kind in the world, is due to produce 250,000 barrels of oil per day at its peak, or about 17 percent of current U.S. crude output from the Gulf of Mexico.
Chappell stopped short of saying the OPEC estimate was wrong, but he said the company wouldn't know the platform's output schedule until the end of its investigation into what caused the tilt.
Chappell said BP would make public Thunder Horse's schedule when its third quarter earnings come out in the end of October.
it will be interesting to see what the impact of all three hurricanes is.
can they name a start date, and when is the "peak production" of 250,000 barrels/day expected?
-
tokyo_to_motueka - Coal
- Posts: 486
- Joined: Tue 19 Oct 2004, 03:00:00
- Location: Tochigi
