[lowem]

Hmm. Was that a crystal ball, or a blueprint?

[nailud]

This is interesting. It sounds a lot like Kondratieff waves:

http://www.ldusa.com/roger/kond_overview.htm

[mgibbons19]

I am going to put my stamp of approval behind philbiker.

I read T4T after 911 and just got chills up my spine. I sense that the unravelling has only accellerated over these last few years. Rereading the quoted section above recently, I was astounded at their clarity.

The historical seasons are driven by community social psychology, which groups in turn set up structural problems. It is an interaction of the social psychology and the structural effects.

It is also essentially the difference between linear and cyclical social thinking.

When financial types say "the great depression? no that can't happen anymore." and "owning stocks for the earnings? that's not the way it works anymore.",

and poli-types say "another world war? that won't happen again"

and so on, you see the key difference. We are far enough away from the 20s-40s that we forget how they were and can't imagine that could ever happen again. Depression grandma, with her stories of sharing coats with her sisters, her wariness of debt, and her wariness of international conflict is gone now. So there is no one to stop us from creating the structural conditions that led to those breakdowns. And the people who are now in charge of the system are folks who are idealistic in nature, as opposed to pragmatists. They will react to to problems idealistically.


There's more, but you can go read the books yourselves.

[Carlhole]

Strauss and Howe were the authors of the original "Generations", the analysis of American history that preceded their "The Fourth Turning", essentially the same material. In "Generations", which is indeed a fascinating cyclical way to perceive American history, the authors forecast a major crisis at around 2020 give or take 5 years or so.

This crisis will be anwered by the generational cohort that began to be born around 1990 (the "Millenials"), those individuals reaching an age of empowerment right around 2020. The Millenial generation corresponds cyclically with the "GI Generation", that cohort that fought and won WWII and subsequently built the civic infrastructure of the most powerful nation the world has ever seen, America.

A few months ago, I wrote an email to the surviving author (I forget which one is still alive) suggesting that the crisis to which they allude in "Generations" could be the severe energy crisis known as Peak Oil. But I never got a reply.

Look for Strauss and Howe on the web. They have a site and an email address. Maybe now that the news about Peak Oil has broken more widely, someone could get a response.

[For those who have not read "Generations" or "The Fourth Turning", the theory goes that 4 generational archtypes (such as the "Boom Generation" ) constantly roll over one another one type spawning another, in a pattern that can be discerned in history stretching back to the very beginnings of colonization. The authors believe this pattern could be detected in other regions like Europe or Asia as well but they limited their analysis to American history in their books. They are not the first authors to use this approach to studying history but they've done a fine job in elucidating the method. Good reading!]

[PhilBiker]

I agree with the assessments of this concept though I haven't read anything except a few threads and the above quoted web pages.

mgibbons19, what exactly are you stamping here? (I agree with your assessment as usual BTW)

[TheSupplyGuy]

It seems to me that this is more astrology than social science. Oh well, I don't know if it's a good or bad thing that I was born around 1990. I've done some very basic reasearch on this and was wondering, which generation group is the 1990 bunch(hero, prophet, ???)

[cthulhu]

Sounds like a rip off of Spengler's Decline of the West, but Spengler explains why people would be using the type of analysis you mentioned within this period of our history. I find it hard to read a book today that isn't thoroughly discredited by or a mere rehash of one written anywhere from about hundred to 4000 years ago. We be treading water...

[mgibbons19]

I haven't read spengler. But the authors freely admit that their idea was inspired by long forgotten analyses of cyclical history. They even use the original term saecular. So they're academically honest.

I'll admit it does seem crazy. You have to recognize that it is the interaction between social psychology and socioeconomic structures in order to see how it works.

When we are born is relative to certain historic events (think Great depression/ww2). Some age cohorts had to manage that mess (they're dead). Some cohorts had to fight it (Brokaw's Greatest Generation), some cohorts were too little to fight, but watched the war being won (a transition generation - the silents). The next cohort was born, knew peace, prosperity, and were bored sick of their elders' stories of the bad old days. They had no reason to fear the chaos their elders lived through. Instead of focusing on a safe and secure civil society (which they took for granted) they focused on internal exploration and cultivation (these were boomers). Eventually the focus on internal, ideological, and soulful gave way to some neglect of children (xers) as well as civil society.

When that generation (x) grows up to be soul-less, pragmatic, and survival oriented (think slackers, legally aborted, children of divorce, latchkey kids, x-games), there is a renewed focus on children (Millies - the kids just hitting college)

So how does this matter, and where does it put us now? All the lessons of WW2 are forgotten, becuase the ppl who managed that war and fought it are gone. The lessons of the depression are forgotten, for the same reason. nobody who is alive now, has any recollection of those things, and everyone thinks the world is too different now. they think they can't happen again. The socioeconomic structures weaken because of a focus on individual rights, freedoms, and enrichment (spiritually and eoonomically), and ppl don't agree on fundamentals anymore.

Gen vibes re peak oil: This gives us a way to look at the discussion here regarding generations as well. I can't guess the silents, but the typical boomer response is going to be the "we can work it out, there is a beautiful low impact future ahead of us." The typical xer response is "yeah yeah, how can we get through this mess as cleanly as possible, and how can I protect my family especially?" The millies are still developing their generational personalities, but expect it to go something like this "We sill do the dirty work to solve this problem. If we all band together and work as a team - we can lick it."

Remember, these generations are only tendencies - Xers are more likely to be pragmatic and survival oriented, than boomers. Not every single one will be. Boomers tend to be more ideological, focusing on getting it right

Social scientists in my expreience don't talk about this book much. It seems to be unfashionable in academic history to think too much in terms of overarching theory. They tend to see history as simply all happening kind of randomly. Something like not seeing the forest for the trees. They focus on the trees, and just hink it's kind of woods in general.

Sociologists don't focus on it, because they a) think linearly - drawing linear predictions from the socioeconomic structures they see, and b) tend to be somewhat progressive politically, thus seeing history through the lenses of 'advancing' human freedoms.

Economists don't seem to talk much about it either. They are mostly convinced that we indeed do live in different times than the great depression, or the civil war. Those that do talk about 'fundamentals' tend to be a fringe group that everybody laughs at.

ps. Philbiker - I am simply stamping that I dig that book - as you know;)
So with that name, you must ride no?

[PhilBiker]

I'll be part of the post-peak roving Mad Max style biker gang discussed in previous threads. Hope we can find gas.

[mgibbons19]

Doh!

I'm a dumbass. I just realized that kochevnik is the one who first posted. Someone here bounces around over at that site a bit too.

Anyway, carry on.

PS, I ride a messenger-style fixie. And an urban/trail single.

[tmazanec1]

Personally, I think the race between Molecular Nanotechnology and Peak Oil will be our Fourth Turning issue. I am a frequent poster on the Fourth Turning Forum, and was interested that someone from this forum came there from here!

[mgibbons19]

Hi tom. I love your postings over at T4T. I personally have been lurking over there much longer than here.

I know they have a thread over there, but I'm just not really seeing why nanotaech is such a big deal.

Off-Topic, it is fun to read this board (and others) with T4T in mind. Who are the artists, who are the nomads, and who are the dreaded boomers? You also get a nice vibe on part of the public mood. I can see both 3T and 4T style writing here. Endless lib-con bashing almost for amusement. Very 3T.

OTOH, get-to-the-problem-what's-gonna-work, seems a little more 4t, esepcially in light of the 'end of our civilization' vibe.

[johnmarkos]

Right smack in the middle of gen X, myself. Born 15 November 1970.

911 would have been a 4T catalyst if it had happened 5-10 years later. As it was, the U.S. "recovered" and turned back into the wacky, narcissistic, unraveling nation it had been before.

Peak oil is the real deal -- T4T fer sure.

[smiley]

I haven't read the book, but this theory reminds me a bit of the concept of "imperial overstrech" from Kennedy.

Paul Kennedy: The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers: Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500 to 2000

It explains how a nation will form into an empire and why this empire will eventually collapse under its own weight.

[trespam]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('smiley', 'I') haven't read the book, but this theory reminds me a bit of the concept of "imperial overstrech" from Kennedy.

[johnmarkos]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('trespam', 'I')t sounds interesting, but I wonder whether the author goes to great lengths to fit history to his theory. One reviewers says the authors made broad sweeping generalizations in their predictions that will fit a host of outcomes.

[trespam]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('johnmarkos', '
')They did a great job of analyzing cultural and demographic trends, predicting which ones would reverse themselves and which would lead to crisis.

[TopCat]

Having read the book, I agree that it is a powerful concept (tough to read book though) which fits right in with peak oil.

Notice that of the last three conflicts arising out of the crisis period, two have been civil disorders (American Revolution and American Civil War). Given the degree of economic upheaval that declining oil production will spawn, I rather think that civil disorder (either revolution or civil war) is more likely than WWIII.

Also interesting is that Robert Prechter in his long term analysis of waves of advance in human history is forecasting an imminent 500 year period of decline.

[tmazanec1]

And don't forget...even World War II was preceded by the near-collapse of the economy we call the Great Depression here in the States!

[sampo]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('trespam', 'I')t was Mark Twain who said that history does not repeat itself, but it does rhyme. But there are many ways in which a rhyme can be constructed.