[Starvid]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Shadizar', 'S')tarvid, Are YOU willing to go to those production facilities to secure our oil supply?
I don't know about you, but I'm not. Before you accuse me of being a "bleeding heart liberal" I did spend 4 years in the military. I for one don't think its worth my life (or the lives of the brave men and women of the armed forces) to do that. Its their country.
-Shadizar

[PrairieMule]

US troops will never be sent to Nigeria, Local Mercinaries have been filling the bill for years. They are typicly ex-nigerian army mercs who work for the oil companies because their checks don't bounce.
Last month Dad caught caught up in a riot with some workers who demanded time and a half ($30-50 a hour) for their lunch break. He was the only white face in a mob of 100.
Want to hear more about Nigerian Human rights? Did you know that if someone dies alongside the road that only the immediate family can touch the body and if any one else touches the body they are liable for burial. Most roads are lined with organic speed bumps and cars and trucks regularly run over the bodies. In Nigeria if a theif is caught he is first beaten, tied up, then burned alive with a tire soaked in gasoline around his neck. The heat from a tire fire is so hot it turns the whole body to ash which solves the problem of body.

Here is another example of Nigerian civility, After the Brits left civil services you and I take for granted like stop signs are absent. Right aways are settled with boards and machetes. The uprising that kicked this whole thread off stems from the corruption(goverment) and tribal violence.
Hey someone else on this forum asked about how corrupt oil companies pollute drinking wells. Want to know how they get poluted for your college paper? Get your pen-here is the truth.
One of the most lucrative ways a Nigerian can make a quick buck to have a mob of people crack a oil pipeline and fill buckets and canisters to sell. Occasionaly one of the folks will have a lit cigarette and the whole mob gets toasty as well as oil shooting all over the place(like drinking wells).
Discuss>>>>

[Pops]

Not much new but anyway: Electricity

[popeye]

somebody said this isnt going to do as much damage to refineries as once thought ? what about the rigs and platforms ? i thought going further east was the worse case senario . and thats where its going.

[Eli]

I would not say that Rita is not going to do as much damage to refining.
I think that it is far from certain what it will do. if it hits any where near Galveston to the Louisiana border it is going to knock out a lot of refining. There is a whole slew of big refineries on the Texas Louisiana border.
What you have is people watching the weather seeing that it has been downgraded to cat 4 and it is shifting east of Galveston. Then oil goes down and tv analysts and big media market watchers start writing stories that support why oil went down. There is no justification for saying that the threat is less.
I think that the platform and rig damage is set to be much worse than Katrina there really is not a way that this storm can go at this point that she won't take out 50 platforms and rigs. And there is a lot more large refining in the whole area and it is much more concentrated than NO.
My bet is this we will wake up to find Rita is again a cat 5 and oil will go higher.
And it looks like she is wobbling more westerly again and the landfall is going to be more towards Galveston. Saw the loop on CNN.com that shows what I am talking about.

[popeye]

yep, i saw that too. i think its going to strenghten a little over night also, then hit as a strong cat 4 early sat morning. i agree that there are alot more rigs and platforms where its headed than were in NO. i think were are in huge trouble. i havent followed natural gas as much as oil over the past year or so. michael rupport turned me on to PO , not im an addict.

[Eli]

The natural gas situation is a lock at this point.
We are going to see serious increases in home heating this winter. I am going to stock up on fire wood this year that is on my to do list. I am playing junior weather man here but it is interesting that Rita made that wobble motion. She made the turn more west, right in the center of the warmer water and that warm water shoots her right at Galveston. I wonder if she is sticking to the warm water like a fire seeks to find fuel to burn.

[RdSnt]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Leanan', 'I') think the real problem will be winter heating. We normally put natural gas into storage for winter use at this time of year.
I don't expect blackouts - not yet. But I do expect electricity bills to increase, because the price of natural gas is going through the roof.
If we have blackouts, they will likely be during a cold snap in the deepest part of winter, when energy use is high, or toward the end of winter, when supplies are low.
I was talking to a friend of mine this morning, who still has a coal furnace in her home. They tried using it once, but quit because it caused acid rain around the house. Seriously! The house windows were etched by it, and it ruined the finish and the glass on their cars.
However, she's considering using it this winter. There's still some coal in the bin.

[BabyPeanut]

GOMEX numbers are the worst: Gomex
$this->bbcode_second_pass_code('', 'Overall Production Impact Estimate as of 09/22/2005 22:02
Short Medium Long Very_Long
Oil 65.3% 22.5% 16.1% 13.4%
Nat Gas 62.6% 34.1% 25.7% 15.9%

Short: less than 10 days disruption.
Medium: 10 to 30 days disruption.
Long: 30 to 60 days disruption.
Very Long: over 60 days disruption.
Categories are cumulative - short includes medium and long')

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BabyPeanut', 'G')OMEX numbers are the worst.

[Cool Hand Linc]

I did a little searching and found these refineries that seem to be at risk with the curant path.
Do a search in google maps for the cities and you will see what I mean. They are all close to coastal areas. I'm not sure what elevation they are at and this will be critical to if the storm surge hits them.
BP Products North America, Inc. (Texas City @ 437,000 BCD)
Marathon Ashland Petroeum LLC (Texas City @ 72,000 BCD)
Valero Refining Co. Texas (Texas City @ 209,950 BCD)
=718,950
Motiva Enterprises LLC (Port Arthur @ 285,000 BCD)
Premcor Refining Group Inc. (Port Arthur @ 255,000 BCD)
Total Petrochemicals Inc (Port Arthur @ 233,500 BCD)
=773,500
ConocoPhillips (Sweeny @ 229,000 BCD)
Crown Central Petroleum Corp. (Pasadena @ 100,000 BCD)
Deer Park Refining LTD Ptnrshp (Deer Park @ 333,700 BCD)
ExxonMobil Refining & Supply Co. (Baytown @ 557,000 BCD)
ExxonMobil Refining & Supply Co. (Beaumont @ 348,500 BCD)
Lyondell Citgo Refining Co. LTD (Houston @ 270,200 BCD)
Valero Refining Co. Texas (Houston @ 83,000 BCD)
=353,200

If the storm tracks more west then these at Corpus Christi then become more at risk.
Citgo Refining & Chemical Inc. (Corpus Christi @ 156,000 BCD)
Flint Hills Resources LP (Corpus Christi @ 288,126 BCD)
Valero Refining Co. Texas (Corpus Christi @ 142,000 BCD)
Trigeant LTD (Corpus Christi @ -0- BCD*) *Downstream capacity only=586,126

I didn't understand the down stream capacity only but included it anyway.
EDIT: Using Google Earth and looking at these. Beaumont is a little ways inland yet next to a river. It could be OK. Several of the others look to be just above sea level and right near large bodies of water.
No good, Not good at all.
Do a google map or google Earth search for the city and state and then look for the tank farms. The refineries are near them. After seeing some of the large tanks having been moved from the last hurricane. This isn't looking good at all.

[pup55]

It will be several days before anyone knows the extent of the damage, and a lot will depend on the damage to other infrastructure (roads, electrical, water systems, etc. ) surrounding the refineries.
What we do know is at least 2-4 more days of downtime because all of these places had to be shut down and evacuated, and it will take awhile for the crew to start them back up when the time comes. Probably within 10 days or so, most of this capacity will be back up. Houston refineries were about 2 million bbl/day, and the ones up around Beaumont another 1 million, so that's 3 mm bbl, at about 50% gasoline, so 1.5 million bbl of gasoline per day out of the inventories, times about 10 days on average, maybe a total reduction of up to 15 million barrels out of inventory. The nationwide inventory is about 195 million barrels currently, so there will still be plenty of fuel around, unless the pipelines out of there get screwed up.

We also know that 1 million Houstonians bought a 16 gallon tankful of gas and burned it up while idling their cars trying to get out of town yesterday. That's 16 million gallons, which is about 380,000 barrels, but they can't commute to work the next few days while they are sitting out in the shelters, so the net effect of this will be more or less offset inventory-wise.
I am inclined to believe the numbers posted above on the downtime effects, however, I have been down to Beaumont and Orange a few times and this area is dead flat, the water table is about 2 feet below the surface, and there really is nothing between you and the Gulf except bullrushes, so if there really is a 20-foot storm surge, this area will take awhile to dry out, and more importantly, difficult to get to the plant so you can start it up. More or less the same with Baytown, except no bullrushes, that big plant is right on a canal so as to be able to offload barges.

[Pops]

That was one thing I was wondering about; how much finished product storage is actually in the area that could be affected by pipeline problems?

[BabyPeanut]

HOLY MOLEY!
$this->bbcode_second_pass_code('', 'Overall Production Impact Estimate as of 09/23/2005 03:29
Short Medium Long Very_Long
Oil 71.3% 24.9% 17.0% 13.1%
Nat Gas 67.3% 35.3% 25.4% 10.7%')

[Leanan]

Diesel and other liquid fuels we can buy. It may cost a lot, but we can buy it.

Natural gas is not as easily shipped. We cannot increase our imports significantly by winter.

[Pops]

Tell me again how much of the US total NG comes from the GOM?

[Pops]

Looks like 23% of US total NG comes from GOM so nationwide that’s about 7% down right now.

And some maps: http://www.kgs.ku.edu/Hydro/Hutch/GasStorage/

[OZ_DOC]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Leanan', 'D')iesel and other liquid fuels we can buy. It may cost a lot, but we can buy it.
Natural gas is not as easily shipped. We cannot increase our imports significantly by winter.

[Leanan]

Yeah, it could suck, especially for the midwest. The northeast could probably pick up the slack through New York Harbor.

But I think, barring another hurricane, New Orleans could recover fairly quickly. It's a mess because the city's a mess. But there seems to be less damage to the ports and pipelines than originally feared.

[pup55]

Oil Imports by Location
You are right, Doc. Looks like about 60% of the imports are coming in through this region. I think the fun is just beginning.