[turmoil]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergySpin', 'B')acteria eating long chain fatty acids in oil, to reduce viscosity and hence increase recovery.

[Kylon]

My cousin is a Professor of Chemical Engineering at UT.

[turmoil]

so what does he think?

[Kylon]

Haven't asked him, but I did ask my dad, whose a Oil Pipeline Operator. It's a job on par when it comes to technical skills of about an engineer. He said that it might work, and that I should see if it's already been tried to searching on the internet for "secondary recovery methods" of oil extraction.

[Kylon]

I found out that other people have had the same idea(before me unfortunately).

http://www.teriin.org/teriscope/resupdates/1oil.htm

AND IT WORKS!

However, I think they didn't use it for production of natural gas(however it could be used for natural gas production), but I believe it could be used to produce natural gas to help increase productivity, drastically, because you could extract energy from tar sand and oil shale and depleted wells in an economically viable fashion.

Anyway just wanted to point that out!

[venky]

It is a fact that extraction rates have increased over the past few decades. And many of the predictions involving URR take into account a base extraction rate which does not change significantly.

A question I have is will it be possible now with better technology and significantly higher prices will it be possible to halt or even change the depletion profiles in regions that have already passed their peak. A friend of mine in Petroleum Engineering made the statement regarding a well he was working on which had achieved an extraction rate of 55%. He said if all wells could extract at this rate we would have enough oil for another 100 years at current consumption rates! Ofcourse the statement also implied that that number was somewhat atypical.

Another question I have is when prices crashed in the 1980's, many wells that were producing only a little amount of oil became uneconomical and were shut down; or capped, especially in the US. Even drilling of new wells dropped abrutly off. It is the contention of folks like Lynch that the reason for discoveries slacking off in the 80's were political rather than geological. Perhaps there is some truth to that. With prices high again would increased drilling and reopening of these old wells have any significant impact on the depletion profiles of the countries that are in decline?

[RonMN]

It is to my understanding that in the last year or so, These "capped" wells have either been reopened (in mass)...or sold to a company who would open them & begin pumping...So far it has done very little (or nothing) to ofset depletion

[bbadwolf]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('venky', '
')Another question I have is when prices crashed in the 1980's, many wells that were producing only a little amount of oil became uneconomical and were shut down; or capped, especially in the US. Even drilling of new wells dropped abrutly off. It is the contention of folks like Lynch that the reason for discoveries slacking off in the 80's were political rather than geological. Perhaps there is some truth to that. With prices high again would increased drilling and reopening of these old wells have any significant impact on the depletion profiles of the countries that are in decline?

[venky]

It is true though that oil and oil services companies are recruiting in large numbers. Schlumberger was on my campus sometime ago and recruited a large number of people from all branches of engineering, not just petroleum.
Has the increased investment in the past few years had any impact on discovery rates? I know 2003 was a bad year for discoveries, what about 2004 and 2005. Where can I find the data for that?

[pup55]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'w')hat about 2004 and 2005. Where can I find the data for that?

[pup55]

You might be able to find it in here.ODAC

[venky]

Thanks, was helpful.

Just another question, are these discoveries dated to the current year, I mean do these figures include reserve additions as well?

[shakespear1]

Here is a good story that in part addresses the stripper wells in the US


King

[Taskforce_Unity]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('venky', 'T')hanks, was helpful.

Just another question, are these discoveries dated to the current year, I mean do these figures include reserve additions as well?

[venky]

Just another quick question. Can reserve additions be technically considered to be same as new discoveries?. As they were not part of the current reserves before.

What is the current total of new discoveries and reserve additions every year? Is it managing to keep up with annual consumption which is close to 30 Gb?

[Taskforce_Unity]

reserve additions and new discoveries are usually seperated by analists. Oil companies add them up in one heap though as far as i know.

Current total of new discoveries and reserve additions still exceeds consumption according to IHS Energy (biggest analyst firm there is).

That's one of the reasons why i don't think peak is here now but will be here between 2010-2015

[richardmmm]

there is plenty of evidence in histroy to suggest that markets are boomed and then busted to shake everyone out and maintain power and wealth of those that have the power and wealth to create the booms and busts in the first place.

first you run the price so low that no one can make any money, but you have a vast war chest so you can survive, meanwhile buying up and consolidating everything around you. then you run the price high and create another boom, restock your war chest. then you collapse the price again and create another bust, so you can start buying out all the competition again.

i'd say at this point in histroy we have much more evidence of this kind of scare mongering and price fixing going on than we do of oil depletion.

a friend of mine recently was offered to lease an oil well in texas. my question to him was why anyone would lease him an oil well so he could basically pump out their oil from the ground and make an easy fortune, unless they thought the prices were likely to fall soon and the well would become unprofitable again, leaving him stuck in an expensive lease arrangement for the next 10 years.

i am not saying 100% that i don't believe in peak oil, you have to be open to all possibilities, but right now, I am much more of the opinion that this is a massive shake out, oil shock, just like the last one. things don't add up properly.

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 't')here is plenty of evidence in histroy to suggest that markets are boomed and then busted to shake everyone out and maintain power and wealth of those that have the power and wealth to create the booms and busts in the first place.

first you run the price so low that no one can make any money, but you have a vast war chest so you can survive, meanwhile buying up and consolidating everything around you. then you run the price high and create another boom, restock your war chest. then you collapse the price again and create another bust, so you can start buying out all the competition again.

i'd say at this point in histroy we have much more evidence of this kind of scare mongering and price fixing going on than we do of oil depletion.

[venky]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Taskforce_Unity', 'r')eserve additions and new discoveries are usually seperated by analists. Oil companies add them up in one heap though as far as i know.

Current total of new discoveries and reserve additions still exceeds consumption according to IHS Energy (biggest analyst firm there is).

That's one of the reasons why i don't think peak is here now but will be here between 2010-2015

[Taskforce_Unity]

It is possible that recoverable reserves are much higher but we don't have any data on that. Outside OPEC it is mostly a Probability 90 (proven reserves) number. But current Probability 50 (probable reserves) reserves could shift and become recoverable in the near term future (according to some reservoir modellers and "techies" i have spoken to it is quite likely because of new technology and stuff).

The big problem is however what's going on in the Middle East, they are probably counting P50 reserves as proven reserves. We don't really know

So "recoverable" reserves worldwide could be anything between 850 and 2000 billion barrels depending if you figure in P90, P50 or even lower...

How long can we expect reserves to increase by reserve addition? Well first of all not all reserve addition is an increase by technology, some is also bad bookkeeping of the past, some is unconventional oil and that sort of stuff.

If you look at Actual reserve additions by technology and discoveries this will probably quite soon be less then consumption.

I don't have any numbers now but i am going to look into it more for my oil projects report so i might come back to it later in this thread (or you can read it in the report when it is finished).