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Mr. Ali you are Wrong

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Mr. Ali you are Wrong

Unread postby knoppix2004 » Fri 16 Sep 2005, 21:23:29

I was bit offended by Mr. Ali’s article Why Simmons Is Wrong about Saudi Oil. I hope reader of this post forgive me for responding to his silly article. link

It is understandable what you have to say Mr. Ali, but don’t expect me or even your fellow Muslim to agree with you. As Matt Simmons has pointed out that he has become a household name all over Saudi. Saudis are demanding their government to tell the truth! Under Saudi’s public pressure Saudi government was forced to tell western truth!
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')link Saudi Arabia calculates there is a 4.5mb/d gap between what the world needs and what the kingdom can provide.

We are all aware that Matt Simmons is fanatic when it comes to Saudi reservoir. However, I sympathize with him on Saudi’s Oil issue. Until he start speaking out I had NO idea that Saudi were “injecting water in the well” since 50s!!!!!!!

You say Mr. Simmons gives ammunition to “peak oil theory” believer. Well peak oil “cease” being theory when American oil production decline to the point where they were forced to buy oil!

I won't even bother debunking rest of your claims, but I also sympathize with you, after all you are scared to death of reality, just like western governments. Maybe, I’m wrong to be mad at you, after all, we are all victim of capitalism, and consumerism.

{moved to PO Discussion. not a book review, per se; EE}
Last edited by knoppix2004 on Sat 17 Sep 2005, 00:52:07, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Mr. Ali you are Wrong about Twilight in the Desert

Unread postby Guest » Fri 16 Sep 2005, 22:08:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"') When natural gas condensates are included, daily production now equals nearly 12 million barrels of liquids."

This is disingenuous. Gas is not oil and all liquids aren't energy. The 55+% of seawater cut they are getting from Ghawar counts as liquids as well.
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Re: Mr. Ali you are Wrong about Twilight in the Desert

Unread postby mgibbons19 » Sat 17 Sep 2005, 00:03:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Anonymous', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"') When natural gas condensates are included, daily production now equals nearly 12 million barrels of liquids."
This is disingenuous.

I had the same thought as well. If we need to add in stuff that is already there, then they are not real numbers. it is just a way to make today's numbers sound better. 'In ten years we will need c. right now, our wells are producing a of oil, and b of gas. Together that adds up to almost c. See no problem.'

But if we cared about a+b we would have been talking about a+b already. We don't, we care about a, and eventually c. b just messes up the picture.
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Re: Mr. Ali you are Wrong about Twilight in the Desert

Unread postby Sparaxis » Sat 17 Sep 2005, 01:02:49

Natural gas liquids (NGLs) are a very important part of oil production and is a significant proportion of US production. There is nothing disingenuous about his his statement at all...NGLs are a key refinery feedstock and an important energy form.

And no, the production statistics do not include the water. That is silly.

China produces with a 92% water cut in their super-giant Daqing field. What he said about it being economic is correct.

I may not share his sanguine opinion, nor do I believe that reserves are as high as stated, nor do I believe that "technology" extends reserve volume (it sustains high production and leads to more rapid decline), and...basically...he hasn't really said anything to refute what Simmons has written. The specifics he tries to refute with are articles of faith (reserve size, technology) rather than fact.
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Re: Mr. Ali you are Wrong about Twilight in the Desert

Unread postby Antimatter » Sat 17 Sep 2005, 03:42:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Anonymous', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"') When natural gas condensates are included, daily production now equals nearly 12 million barrels of liquids."
This is disingenuous. Gas is not oil and all liquids aren't energy. The 55+% of seawater cut they are getting from Ghawar counts as liquids as well.

Gas condensates are light liquid hydrocarbons, as the word "condensates" may suggest, and seawater does not count as liquids production. :roll:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'O')h and I'll bet Shaybah field was old and tired or new and tiny and respresents the high hanging fruit.

At 18 billion barrels its hardly high hanging fruit, small compared to Ghawar but larger than anything ever found in the US. Its been producing at 500,000b/d since 1998 IIRC.
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Re: Mr. Ali you are Wrong about Twilight in the Desert

Unread postby spartacus » Mon 19 Sep 2005, 09:38:56

Ali Denashy is right on the money! The water injection is to provide pressure support where natural pressure support is insufficient It's common worldwide, and means nothing.

On the issue of horizontal wells adding reserves....this is also true, most noticeably in reservoirs with gas caps, but also in thinner reservoirs. In both these cases it is a question of economics (which forms part of the definition of reserves)

Again, as stated by others, condensate is a light oil.....it is added to the produced oil stream. The water comment is silly!

Shaybah is not the 'high fruit', but is a complex field.

One interesting note is that Aramco has not even developed the field under its main offices in Dhahran. I'm sure if things were dire, they would have started on the closest (and large) Dammam field...but apparently not yet!
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