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2030 Cyber Economy over an Agrarian reality....

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: 2030 Cyber Economy over an Agrarian reality....

Unread postby FatherOfTwo » Wed 14 Sep 2005, 15:31:34

To followup on Ludi's post, johnmarko's made the following comment in another thread:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')IRC, processed veggie products require even more energy to produce than meat. If you really want to eat sustainably, you have to eat unprocessed stuff (unless it's Quorn, maybe). That means you're soaking beans for protein, eating lots of nuts, and spending hours preparing your veggies. You can't just grab some Boca burgers from the freezer section and call your diet sustainable.
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Re: 2030 Cyber Economy over an Agrarian reality....

Unread postby holmes » Wed 14 Sep 2005, 15:49:19

Looks like Ill be putting in more Fava beans.
Im not giving up on soy. If you steam or cook the beans they are more digestible. endamame is the little soy bean and seems to be more viable for humans. I grow em and the big ones. have had some health issues with the big beans. not with the endamame tho.
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Re: 2030 Cyber Economy over an Agrarian reality....

Unread postby Pops » Wed 14 Sep 2005, 16:03:49

X has quite an encompassing vision but I’d like to argue that an increasing use of telecommuting is most important to making a transition because: a) currently we pay a tiny percentage of average income for food and b) a large percentage of our fuel use (and an increasing percentage of our income) goes to personal transportation.

Ludi’s question of an imposed or spontaneous transition, at least as it applies to telecommuting, is moot since it is already happening – albeit to this point for different reasons than cost. (I had a couple of good sources but lost the links in shutting down for a T-storm; a downside of telecommuting in Tornado Alley) Anyway, before last year it was about employees wanting to have a more flexible and home/family oriented lifestyle and managers becoming more comfortable with the idea. I would assume if the current fuel prices continue, next year it would be more about cost of commuting.

Point being; the US makes a whole lot of food, does it very cheap and will continue to do so for quite a while before it impacts peoples wallets or waistlines because there are much cheaper alternatives to the average American diet, OTOH gasoline prices are apparently impacting people now and their commutes aren’t nearly as easily changed.
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Re: 2030 Cyber Economy over an Agrarian reality....

Unread postby Ludi » Wed 14 Sep 2005, 16:34:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '
')
Point being; the US makes a whole lot of food, does it very cheap and will continue to do so for quite a while before it impacts peoples wallets or waistlines because there are much cheaper alternatives to the average American diet, OTOH gasoline prices are apparently impacting people now and their commutes aren’t nearly as easily changed.


I agree, but this doesn't address what all the people who used to be employed in the food processing and distribution industries will do for a living.

My question about this future scenario isn't "moot" BTW, because most workers don't yet telecommute. There will be quite a large impact on other sectors of the economy if/when they do, certainly not least the fast food industry.

What will all the fast food workers do when our diet is simplified to basic unprocessed foods and most people work at home?

Xerces, please respond to these questions.
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Re: 2030 Cyber Economy over an Agrarian reality....

Unread postby Pops » Wed 14 Sep 2005, 17:37:09

I haven’t a clue where the burger flippers go. Ludi. Like any other solution this one doesn’t address every problem as x seems to think. But that doesn’t mean the folks in the cubicles can’t work from their spare bedrooms and save a couple of barrels of oil does it?

My point was in reference to your question regarding whether x’s plan to have everyone telecommuting would be imposed or voluntary. I think, as I said before, the option has many qualities attractive to folks today and which may be more attractive tomorrow. So there won’t be a need to impose anything - it is already happening as you and I know and will only increase, at least in my view.


Regarding food processing, even though I have previously railed about eating pre-processed food – stared a thread about it even, I have since read a study proclaiming that due to the ever-present economies of scale, pre-processed food nuked for a couple of minutes in the microwave actually uses less energy than home cooking from scratch. (sorry, again I don’t have the source)
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Re: 2030 Cyber Economy over an Agrarian reality....

Unread postby xerces » Thu 15 Sep 2005, 02:38:07

Ok, first of all I'm not IMPOSING any type of future on anyone.

I'm merely saying that current market trends may lead to a future of this sort. A place where telecommuting becomes more important than actual travel. This is not a future set in stone, it's simply, imho, the future of least resistence,and the most likely of many futures to become reality.

Now what will the burger flippers do? I don't know. But it seems to me that entire virutal worlds can be created within the internet with very minimal inputs of energy. There seems to be enough "virtual" space to encompass a huge number of service jobs, far more than what we currently have now.
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Re: 2030 Cyber Economy over an Agrarian reality....

Unread postby xerces » Thu 15 Sep 2005, 02:42:15

"Soy the way it's currently grown isn't sustainable, as our current agriculture isn't sustainable. You can grow soy in a sustainable way, but most people who are growing it, don't grow it that way. "


I've never said anything about creating a sustainable agriculture or a sustainable society. I don't share your view of the need to create such sustainable systems.

My take on it is that such a society will allow us as a species to survive long enough (with our hi-tech civilization intact) to discover a more potent source of energy and rebound.
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Re: 2030 Cyber Economy over an Agrarian reality....

Unread postby xerces » Thu 15 Sep 2005, 02:48:05

"Oil is not our only usustainable activity, almost everything we do is unsustainable. Oil is just the one that gets covered here."

Why do you guys want sustainable systems? Sustainable=stagnant => lack of growth or innovation. The point of all this is to prolong the collapse long enough to figure out new ways of obtaining massive amounts of energy.

I have no intentions of seeing a "sustainable" society of farmers. I like humanity to be a star-trek type of civilization with teleportation , flying cars, and dyson spheres. And if it means we need to be cyber-agrarians for a couple of generations inorder to get there, then so be it.

This cyber-agrarian society is not an end in itself, it is simply a means to a greater end(infinite energy, infinite growth society).
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Re: 2030 Cyber Economy over an Agrarian reality....

Unread postby EnergySpin » Thu 15 Sep 2005, 04:11:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('xerces', '"')Oil is not our only usustainable activity, almost everything we do is unsustainable. Oil is just the one that gets covered here."

Why do you guys want sustainable systems? Sustainable=stagnant => lack of growth or innovation. The point of all this is to prolong the collapse long enough to figure out new ways of obtaining massive amounts of energy.

I have no intentions of seeing a "sustainable" society of farmers. I like humanity to be a star-trek type of civilization with teleportation , flying cars, and dyson spheres. And if it means we need to be cyber-agrarians for a couple of generations inorder to get there, then so be it.

This cyber-agrarian society is not an end in itself, it is simply a means to a greater end(infinite energy, infinite growth society).

Xerxes you are describing a powerswitch scenario. A powerdown in individual consumption, while infrastructure is set up to yield a powerup down the road.
The "two generations" time horizon is pretty accurate; stabilizing population and stabilization of the environmental mess will take two generations. This is the "bottleneck" identified in the recent Scientific American issue. As far as infinite energy is concerned: nuclear energy is here , today and working. Wind is here,today and working. Solar needs a few tweaks but could be potentially available massively in the next 5 years. I am glad that I see someone who shares my vision for the solution of the problems. A controlled detonation of the current stupid system and a program for our grandkids NOT US to evolve beyond our current system.
BTW : growth does not always guarantee innovation and innovation can lead to either growth or development
"Nuclear power has long been to the Left what embryonic-stem-cell research is to the Right--irredeemably wrong and a signifier of moral weakness."Esquire Magazine,12/05
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Re: 2030 Cyber Economy over an Agrarian reality....

Unread postby Ghog » Thu 15 Sep 2005, 12:11:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')'ve never said anything about creating a sustainable agriculture or a sustainable society. I don't share your view of the need to create such sustainable systems


I think that is the point you are missing. You focus only on energy, but fail to 'hear' the other issues of "infinite growth".

How do you contend to deal with estimate that we only have 40-80 years of topsoil left worldwide?

As much as I like technology, how do you intend to clean up the environment? Tech is not very eco-friendly. We have air polution, GW, species extinction and diminishing fresh water.

Eventually your "infinite growth" scenario leads to over-population. We can debate whether we are already there now, but eventually we will be there with continued growth. Where does it end?

Let me just say, I do think we could help the situation by having people that can, work from home. Even if only a tenth of the population in the US would do so, it would amount to huge gas savings, less polution and less congested highways. It is a good short-term move to help the situation, but I don't see it as solving all of our problems. By doing this and using other viable alt sources, we buy more time to get away from the never-ending growth cycle we are in. We need the time in order to unprogram the masses from their consumerists ways. That doesn't mean tech should cease to exist.
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Re: 2030 Cyber Economy over an Agrarian reality....

Unread postby Ludi » Thu 15 Sep 2005, 13:39:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('xerces', '
')This cyber-agrarian society is not an end in itself, it is simply a means to a greater end(infinite energy, infinite growth society).


In other words, a society completely divorced from physical reality.

Ok, I thought as much. :)
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Re: 2030 Cyber Economy over an Agrarian reality....

Unread postby Omnitir » Thu 15 Sep 2005, 19:05:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')As much as I like technology, how do you intend to clean up the environment? Tech is not very eco-friendly. We have air polution, GW, species extinction and diminishing fresh water.

How can we deal with these problems without technology? If we powerdown and exchange scientists for farmers, who is going to solve the problems already existing? Powerdown doesn’t solve anything, it merely stops creating more problems (theoretically).

True sustainability is a ridiculous goal to aim for. Consider an organism that represents the entire human race. This organism, like all organisms, needs to constantly consume and grow. If it were to strive for “sustainability” and succeed, it would die.

The cyber-agrarian society, or at least the cyber part – the knowledge economy as they like to call it - is something that we have been naturally moving towards for a while now, and that move will be hastened by PO. I think it is one of the key aspects that will give us the time we need to find technological solutions to our various problems.

Society by about 2030 will be largely unrecognisable to us today.
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Re: 2030 Cyber Economy over an Agrarian reality....

Unread postby Pops » Thu 15 Sep 2005, 19:39:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Omnitir', 'C')onsider an organism that represents the entire human race. This organism, like all organisms, needs to constantly consume and grow. If it were to strive for “sustainability” and succeed, it would die.


And in living and dieing provide the basis for the next life.

It’s been going on for a few billion years so far.
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Re: 2030 Cyber Economy over an Agrarian reality....

Unread postby Omnitir » Fri 16 Sep 2005, 22:09:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Omnitir', 'C')onsider an organism that represents the entire human race. This organism, like all organisms, needs to constantly consume and grow. If it were to strive for “sustainability” and succeed, it would die.


And in living and dieing provide the basis for the next life.

It’s been going on for a few billion years so far.

So you’re saying we should give up, let ourselves become extinct, so that other life forms can evolve?

The point of my example is trying to show that we must always strive to grow. At the moment – this period – we have been in a process of unsustainable growth. We must aim for sustainable growth, but this is still growth.

A shift to the knowledge economy will help give us the time we need to develop the necessary technologies to not only solve our various problems, but also eventually achieve sustainable growth.
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Re: 2030 Cyber Economy over an Agrarian reality....

Unread postby Ludi » Fri 16 Sep 2005, 22:25:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Omnitir', '
')The point of my example is trying to show that we must always strive to grow. At the moment – this period – we have been in a process of unsustainable growth. We must aim for sustainable growth, but this is still growth.

A shift to the knowledge economy will help give us the time we need to develop the necessary technologies to not only solve our various problems, but also eventually achieve sustainable growth.


I don't see the need for "growth" in the sense of a larger population or more complex society. I think our population is probably plenty big, I'm not convinced a much larger population could be sustained. I don't see advantage in societal complexity either, people are stressing out so much as it is with the way we conduct our lives, virtually cut off from our neighbors and in many cases even our families.

Maybe I'm not sure what you mean by "growth" Omnitir.

If you mean growth in knowledge and wisdom, I do see advantage in that, but not merely growth for growth's sake.

We don't need to "develop technologies to solve our various problems." Such technologies already exist they just aren't being implemented on a wide scale because they aren't "sexy" and don't allow one to sit in front of a computer all day; one actually has to get off one's ass and do something.
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Re: 2030 Cyber Economy over an Agrarian reality....

Unread postby xerces » Sat 17 Sep 2005, 00:26:06

The purpose of life is to grow and evolve into ever greater degrees of complexity.

These things are hard-wired into us as a species.
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Re: 2030 Cyber Economy over an Agrarian reality....

Unread postby Omnitir » Sat 17 Sep 2005, 02:30:26

Xerces said it nicely. Life grows, that’s what it does. The opposite directing is death, wether you are talking about simple organisms or complex societies.

There are big advantages to be had in increasing complexity.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '
')I think our population is probably plenty big, I'm not convinced a much larger population could be sustained.

Not if we stick to the finite resources currently available to us, no. If we don’t increase our resources, no population can be sustained indefinitely. The only way we can increase our resources, the only way to ensure our future, is to increase our complexity.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '
')I don't see advantage in societal complexity either, people are stressing out so much as it is with the way we conduct our lives, virtually cut off from our neighbors and in many cases even our families.

I disagree with this concept. Firstly, less people today are cut off from each other then ever before, thanks to the growing cyber economy. Secondly, it’s merely an opinion of yours (and most doomers for that matter) that people are stressed today, more so then in the past. I see the opposite. I see people everywhere happy with their complex lives. People can engage in numerous and varied activities like never before, leading fulfilling and productive lives. From my personal experiences, the main people that are over stressed are those concerned primarily with money (which contrary to popular belief is only a small percentage of the population – the entrepreneur types), and those that have failed to adjust with the changing times and thus become stressed because of lack of understanding.

Members of modern society may stress from time to time with the fast paced world we live in, but would we really be better off living in “simpler times”? For example, would manual slave labour in ancient Rome be less stressful then working for a construction company? Would being a starving begger stealing food in pre-industrial London be less stressful then working in the service industry today earning enough for food, shelter and occasional luxuries? Would being a lord of a property in medieval Europe, having to contend with all the problems that entails and of that time period be less stressful then being a manager of a corporation?

When people say we live in a more stressed out world today, I often think they haven’t fully considered our history. It’s mostly not as rosy as many people seem to assume it was. Most of our history is filled with hard, stressful times. I think most people are actually less stressed today.
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Re: 2030 Cyber Economy over an Agrarian reality....

Unread postby Ludi » Sat 17 Sep 2005, 08:16:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Omnitir', '
')Not if we stick to the finite resources currently available to us, no. If we don’t increase our resources, no population can be sustained indefinitely. The only way we can increase our resources, the only way to ensure our future, is to increase our complexity.


Why do you think increasing our social complexity would increase resources? Can you explain this process?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Omnitir', '
')

Members of modern society may stress from time to time with the fast paced world we live in, but would we really be better off living in “simpler times”? For example, would manual slave labour in ancient Rome be less stressful then working for a construction company? Would being a starving begger stealing food in pre-industrial London be less stressful then working in the service industry today earning enough for food, shelter and occasional luxuries? Would being a lord of a property in medieval Europe, having to contend with all the problems that entails and of that time period be less stressful then being a manager of a corporation?



I agree, people have been stressed in our culture for centuries, even millenia. Why not look outside our culture to examples of peoples who have close-knit social groups and lifelong support, who work far fewer hours than most of us? These other cultures still exist, though they are rare.

I think it's interesting you label me a "doomer."
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Re: 2030 Cyber Economy over an Agrarian reality....

Unread postby Ghog » Sat 17 Sep 2005, 16:04:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')irstly, less people today are cut off from each other then ever before, thanks to the growing cyber economy.


The internet is not contact. It has developed into a meeting place for 'actors', those who pretend to be what they are not. I moved away from home when I got married and do not feel closer to my family. The internet and telephone do not take the place of proximity to our loved ones.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')econdly, it’s merely an opinion of yours (and most doomers for that matter) that people are stressed today, more so then in the past. I see the opposite. I see people everywhere happy with their complex lives. People can engage in numerous and varied activities like never before, leading fulfilling and productive lives.


Merely your utopian opinion as I see it differently. For the group aged 15-24, suicide has tripled since the 50s. Job satisfaction has gone down in every age group and income bracket. The citizens of the US now officially save $0 and are at record levels of debt. That goes with the record levels of Bankruptcy. When I go to a store, I don't see smiling clerks or salespersons. At work, more complain about 'life' than they praise it. Turn on the Tv or radio and much of what you hear or see is gloomy. Sorry I don't see it. I would love for more to share your view, but that's not how it is IMHO.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')rom my personal experiences, the main people that are over stressed are those concerned primarily with money (which contrary to popular belief is only a small percentage of the population – the entrepreneur types), and those that have failed to adjust with the changing times and thus become stressed because of lack of understanding.


Unfortunately, more than a small percentage of people worry about money. You left out the lower and middle classes as being those who worry about money. Funny how the doomers AND landers alike, on these very forums, talk of financial preparation for PO as a key point in survival, yet in your view only the doomers really see anything to worry
about.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')ot if we stick to the finite resources currently available to us, no. If we don’t increase our resources, no population can be sustained indefinitely. The only way we can increase our resources, the only way to ensure our future, is to increase our complexity.


Are you speaking only of energy? What about fresh water and topsoil depletion? Compexity (technology) is good to a point, but when we come to fully rely on it, we also live and die with it. What would happen if that 'complexity' would fail us? Remember, sometimes technology is not as good as we first thought. Why grow beyond our means to sustain in the event of some failure? What is the benefit to 'always growing'?
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Re: 2030 Cyber Economy over an Agrarian reality....

Unread postby Omnitir » Sat 17 Sep 2005, 22:02:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '
')Why do you think increasing our social complexity would increase resources? Can you explain this process?

I was referring to technological complexity. To learn more about science, to further our understanding of the universe, to develop new technologies; this is how we must grow if we want any long term survival.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '
')I think it's interesting you label me a "doomer."

Sorry, I didn’t mean to label you a doomer. I said: “it’s merely an opinion of yours (and most doomers for that matter)” – what I meant was your opinion and also the opinion of doomers, meaning your opinion on the issue happens to be the same as the extreme pessimists.

Lately I’ve been getting fed up with the extreme pessimism around PO and may have been developing a tendency to attack “doomer” points of view. I just don’t think pessimism is very constructive.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ghog', '
')The internet is not contact. It has developed into a meeting place for 'actors', those who pretend to be what they are not. I moved away from home when I got married and do not feel closer to my family. The internet and telephone do not take the place of proximity to our loved ones.

This is true. Though at the same time, I’d much rather have my occasional video chat sessions with friends and family then not see them at all. And I’d much rather player a computer game online with millions of real people from all over the world then play against the computer. The Internet is communication, which is a form of contact. But certainly nothing can take the place of being in the same physical location with friends and family.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ghog', '
')At work, more complain about 'life' than they praise it. Sorry I don't see it. I would love for more to share your view, but that's not how it is IMHO.

Hmm, maybe you’re right. I suppose sociology cannot accurately predict or measure societies contentment. Perhaps it’s to do with my field (artist/student). Most people I talk to are professional digital artists of various kinds, and most of them not only like their life, they love it. And of course students generally have it reasonably easy. Though I do remember a while ago when I worked in a mail-processing centre. The work was menial and I suppose almost everyone hated the job and their lives – or so it seemed. So yes, I suppose a very large portion of the population are stuck in live that they are unhappy with.

However there is a definite move away from the old style concept that work must be menial and not something enjoyable. The knowledge economy is a shift towards a more satisfying life in many ways.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ghog', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Omnitir', '
')From my personal experiences, the main people that are over stressed are those concerned primarily with money (which contrary to popular belief is only a small percentage of the population – the entrepreneur types), and those that have failed to adjust with the changing times and thus become stressed because of lack of understanding.

Unfortunately, more than a small percentage of people worry about money. You left out the lower and middle classes as being those who worry about money. Funny how the doomers AND landers alike, on these very forums, talk of financial preparation for PO as a key point in survival, yet in your view only the doomers really see anything to worry
about.

You misunderstood me. I said “the main people that are over stressed are those concerned primarily with money – the entrepreneur types”, meaning that it’s the people who’s lives and ambitions are centred entirely on attaining a lot of money that have the most stress. I’m referring to the greedy minority who dream of massive accumulation of power and riches. The lower and middle-class mostly are not constantly striving for extreme riches, they are mostly striving for the standard “American dream”. Their wildest dream is usually along the lines of winning enough money to pay for their “American dream” and retire. Those concentrating on having a nice home, a happy family and a modest accumulation of luxuries are much more happy with their lives then those fighting their way up the corporate ladder.

It’s only a very small percentage of the population that are obsessed with attaining mass riches. We would all like to be rich, and we all worry about money, but for most of us it’s not the primary motivator to live above all else.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ghog', '
')Are you speaking only of energy? What about fresh water and topsoil depletion? Compexity (technology) is good to a point, but when we come to fully rely on it, we also live and die with it. What would happen if that 'complexity' would fail us? Remember, sometimes technology is not as good as we first thought.

We are already dependent of technology; there is no going back. The only way to solve our problems is to further increase of complexity (increase our technology).

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ghog', '
')Why grow beyond our means to sustain in the event of some failure? What is the benefit to 'always growing'?

We most likely already have grown beyond our means to sustain in the event of some failure, but the solution isn’t to just let everyone die (seriously, what kind of solution is that?!), but to grow our means to sustain. The benefit of growing, of increasing our complexity, is that it is the only possible way that we can achieve a means of sustaining ourselves in the long term. We must race forwards to find solutions to problems we created in the past. The alternative is ultimately our complete extinction.
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