[Armageddon]

ahhh, i wasnt aware of their credibilty, thanks for the warning. i will stay posted to see the response.

[rogerhb]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Shannymara', 'T')hey said the platform had been lost, and then found beached near what used to be Venice, but they weren't supposed to let on that it had been found.

[backstop]

Shannymara -I wish you'd ask them for any gen on the amount of damage to seabed pipelines, if you can do so without embarrassing them that is -
regards, Backstop

[SchroedingersCat]

The EIA must hire PR hacks from penny stock companies to write their press releases (and Short Term Energy Outlooks). The real news is always in the numbers. I think things are as bad as we've been hearing. This is a special report from the EIA: Hurricane Katrina's Impact on the U.S. Oil and Natural Gas Markets
A few tidbits:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')urrently, there are four refineries (ChevronTexaco, located in Pascagoula, MS; ConocoPhillips, located in Belle Chasse, LA; ExxonMobil, located in Chalmette, LA; and Murphy, located in Meraux, LA) that remain shut down, and expectations are that these refineries, which represent about 5 percent of total U.S. refining capacity, could be shut down for an extended period.

[UncoveringTruths]

This may or may not be a clue?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')fficials who organized Monday's meeting at the state Capitol hoped to clarify rumors about the parish -- including one that it would be purchased by neighboring Plaquemines Parish -- but they also warned that some residents may never be able to live in their homes again due to oil spills up to five feet deep and possibly contaminated soil.
The companies that owned the oil may wind up buying their properties

[Ardalla]

Beached near Venice? That is indeed strange, since Venice is not on the coast, but pretty far inland.

I've been trying to get info on conditions in Plaquemines Parish. Even though it took a direct hit, the media has little info. Hard to believe that anyone in that parish that did not evacuate could have survived. I mean the whole parish was under water.

[Armageddon]

i heard on fox news today ( radio ) that the underground lines are fine . i wonder how reliable that is.

[DerelictOverlord]

Underground or undersea?

I'm sure most of the underground lines fared fine to excellent, it's the undersea lines that matter.

[BabyPeanut]

GOMEX damage estimate over time:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BabyPeanut', 'T')AOS Link
GOMEX Link
Definitions:
Short: less than 10 days disruption.
Medium: 10 to 30 days disruption.
Long: 30 to 60 days disruption.
Very Long: over 60 days disruption.
Categories are cumulative - short includes medium and long

Overall Production Impact Estimate as of 09/20/2005
Short Medium Long Very_Long
Oil 50.3% 8.6% 7.5% 0.0%
Nat Gas 66.2% 15.8% 5.8% 0.0%
Drop in GOMEX predicted damage. Actually it dropped way lower and then went back up again. It is only as good as the weather forcast (and maybe not even that.)
Overall Production Impact Estimate as of 09/21/2005 11:17
Short Medium Long Very_Long
Oil 23.4% 8.1% 6.8% 0.0%
Nat Gas 33.6% 14.7% 5.8% 0.0%
Updated:Overall Production Impact Estimate as of 09/21/2005
Short Medium Long Very_Long
Oil 23.8% 8.0% 6.8% 6.2%
Nat Gas 35.2% 13.5% 6.6% 1.7%
big upward revision:
Overall Production Impact Estimate as of 09/21/2005 22:12
Short Medium Long Very_Long
Oil 37.7% 10.0% 8.0% 1%
Nat Gas 59.8% 17.3% 6.6% 2.7%
long term forcast worsens:
Overall Production Impact Estimate as of 09/22/2005 03:31
Short Medium Long Very_Long
Oil 35.5% 14.7% 3.7% 2.4%
Nat Gas 52.5% 20.0% 12.6% 5.1%

[Eli]

Well the storm track as it stands now is heading into the area of highest production of oil and gas and also refining.

The storm keeps trending north which will likely continue until landfall. My bet is we will see a direct on the Texas Louisiana border. That area is chock o block full of refining and production facilities and platforms.

Her track is in line to do maximum damage on the oil platforms and drilling rigs.

[some_guy282]

And when does the Hurricane season end? November?

[frankthetank]

Yup...she looks to be heading into oil alley...

A 1-2 punch if i've ever seen one. If she carries big waves, watch out...we could see a lot of damage....AGAIN.

[BabyPeanut]

another update
$this->bbcode_second_pass_code('', 'Overall Production Impact Estimate as of 09/22/2005 11:39
Short Medium Long Very_Long
Oil 31.6% 14.6% 3.3% 1.7%
Nat Gas 47.7% 18.3% 11.4% 4.5%')

[Pops]

I mentioned this on the planning forum but thought it should go here too.
Interesting story on Urban Survival this morning regarding an e-maill George received from a fellow who works in Nat. Gas in New Mexico.
He said their wells are being shut-in due to shutdowns of facilities for Rita. I don’t know how large an area this affects but there is quite a bit of electricity that’s NG fired.
Could be that a few batteries and a little water stuck in the back of the closet are in order?
Gas for the generator and maybe fill the propane tank for the barbeque too.

[Leanan]

I think the real problem will be winter heating. We normally put natural gas into storage for winter use at this time of year.
I don't expect blackouts - not yet. But I do expect electricity bills to increase, because the price of natural gas is going through the roof.
If we have blackouts, they will likely be during a cold snap in the deepest part of winter, when energy use is high, or toward the end of winter, when supplies are low.
I was talking to a friend of mine this morning, who still has a coal furnace in her home. They tried using it once, but quit because it caused acid rain around the house. Seriously! The house windows were etched by it, and it ruined the finish and the glass on their cars.
However, she's considering using it this winter. There's still some coal in the bin.

[DerelictOverlord]

Tell her to try and order some Powder River Basin coal, lower BTU but it's cleaner than the Appalachian stuff. I'm still sticking by the idea of having an extra electric blanket and a couple of space heaters. I think I may even buy a pellet stove and a ton of pellets.

[bruin]

NY Times reports 23% of US refinery capacity is shut down right now: NYTimes
Lots of data in this one.

[Leanan]

CNN had updated their map of Rita's path and the refineries in her way: [url]http://i.cnn.net/money/popups/2005/news/rita_map/map.gif]CNN[/url]
Further east is good news for Houston, but not so good news for the oil patch.

[BabyPeanut]

GOMEX estimate shot way up: Hurricane
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')verall Production Impact Estimate as of 09/22/2005 12:25
Short Medium Long Very_Long
Oil 44.3% 16.3% 14.2% 11.1%
Nat Gas 51.4% 25.6% 15.4% 7.2%

[jeffvail]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/4270582.stm]BBC While our attention is diverted by Rita, things are escalating in Nigeria. Nigeria has been fraught with ethnic divisions and on the edge of civil war ever since this fiction of British colonial cartography gained independence, but today's events have serious potential to escalate. Nigeria produces over 2 mbpd, and has plans to raise production to roughly 3 mbpd.
What happens in Nigeria may well be more important to the long-term peak oil forecast than hurricanes, as it is a test of the ability of indigenous groups to control the revenues from oil in their territory. Participants in this same conflict are watching closely from Bolivia, Colombia, Indonesia and more...