[AirlinePilot]

Shell, Motiva is adverstising heavily here in Atlanta on two of the biggest radio stations for thier employees to check in with them if at all possible. They are offering HR resources to them and giving out contact numbers and e-mails.

I find that extremely telling about the labor dislocation. This is far from a good situation. I have to agree they are doing a really good job keeping a lid on the news and how it is affecting the market. I wonder how long that can go on??

[LadyRuby]

New York Times article:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')or the nation's oil refiners, Hurricane Katrina was a disaster long in the making.
Analysts and industry executives had for years feared the consequences of a storm ramming into the country's largest energy hub - a complex infrastructure that spans most of the coastline between Texas and Alabama, where nearly half of the nation's refineries are located. ... As a consequence, even though crude oil prices have fallen back to pre-Katrina levels, prices for gasoline, heating oil, diesel and jet fuel are expected to remain higher than they were before the storm for a much longer period of time. ...
Currently, four major refineries, owned by Chevron, Exxon Mobil, ConocoPhillips and Murphy Oil, are either flooded or without power, and are likely to be out of commission for several weeks, perhaps months. Together, these refine 880,000 barrels a day, or 5 percent of domestic capacity. "It's very significant," said Colm McDermott, an oil analyst at John S. Herold Inc. The loss is equal to 1 percent of the world's refining capacity. "It's a global market and that's certainly enough to have an impact on a global level." ...
Elsewhere in the world, some oil producers are planning to build new refineries. Saudi Arabia is one of them. "We cannot keep producing oil with no refineries," Ali Al-Naimi, the Saudi oil minister, told the industry newsletter Petroleum Argus a few months ago. "There is a limit."
While helpful, such moves abroad would mostly serve to shift the country's increasing reliance on foreign oil producers to a greater dependence on refiners abroad.
"We are going to be importing more products," Mr. Murphy of the American Petroleum Institute said. "That is a certainty if we don't expand our capacity. But the problem there is that you've changed one form of dependency for another."

[smiley]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')NN just reported that Shell says their Mars platform will out of commission until at least next year.

[backstop]

It seems that even the title of the so-called Strategic Petroleum Reserve is propaganda, and that its initials ought to be S.C.O.R.

[EnergySpin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('backstop', 'I')t seems that even the title of the so-called Strategic Petroleum Reserve is propaganda, and that its initials ought to be S.C.O.R.

[smiley]

He's a complete assesment of the damage by Katrina: Link
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ased on information provided by operators owning platforms and leases in the Gulf of Mexico, there are at least 34 offshore platforms that have been damaged to varying degrees by Hurricane Katrina. Of those 30 platforms, reports show that 18 platforms appear to have been completely lost, while another 16 platforms have been damaged. The majority of damage has occurred on shallow water platforms, but there are a few notable exceptions.
Shell's $550 million Mars tension leg platform (TLP) was handling 147,000 barrels of oil and 157mmcfe per day from its location on Mississippi Canyon 807 before Katrina hit on Sunday. Now the platform is entirely shut-in and has experienced major damages due to the destruction of the H&P 201 platform rig that was located on its top sides. The extent of the damages to the Mars platform has yet to be ascertained, but the H&P 201 is almost certainly a total loss.

[backstop]

Energy Spin-
SCOR = Strategic Crude Oil Reserve !
Re a cut of global emissions, there's a clear drop in global fossil fuel usage from the '70s oil shocks visible in the graphs at Global Commons Institute. W'eve a way to go before recession bites that hard though - maybe next year?
For anyone who hasn't seen those graphs, the link is
www.gci.org.uk
regards, Backstop

[EnergySpin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('backstop', 'E')nergy Spin-
SCOR = Strategic Crude Oil Reserve !
Re a cut of global emissions, there's a clear drop in global fossil fuel usage from the '70s oil shocks visible in the graphs at Global Commons Institute. W'eve a way to go before recession bites that hard though - maybe next year?

[LadyRuby]

And with all this, the EIA says we'll be back up to full production by the end of the year. Unbelievable! (In many ways that is.)

[tokyo_to_motueka]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('LadyRuby', 'A')nd with all this, the EIA says we'll be back up to full production by the end of the year. Unbelievable! (In many ways that is.)

[rogerhb]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('tokyo_to_motueka', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('LadyRuby', 'A')nd with all this, the EIA says we'll be back up to full production by the end of the year. Unbelievable! (In many ways that is.)

[Armageddon]

after reading this thread, i will ask you guys who abviousely know way more than i do, what do you think the results from the damage and destruction done by katrina will have in the immediate and long term future ? it seems we are going to be in huge trouble when all this takes effect . i know the spr has calmed the markets temporarily.

[tokyo_to_motueka]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rogerhb', '[')I'm presuming they don't include Iraq in "full production".

[LadyRuby]

Here's the EIA's rosy figure from the new short-term outlook report:
EIA$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')or this month’s Outlook, EIA has established three basic scenarios to represent a range of plausible outcomes for oil and natural gas supply over the next several months and through 2006. The three scenarios are: Fast Recovery, which assumes a very favorable set of circumstances for getting supplies back to normal; Slow Recovery, which assumes that significant outages in oil and natural gas production and delivery from the Gulf area continue at least into November; and Medium Recovery, which assumes a path in between Slow and Fast Recovery. In all cases, return to normal operations, in terms of oil and natural gas production and distribution, is achieved or nearly achieved by December. By the end of September all but about 0.9 million barrels per day of crude oil refining capacity is expected to be back at full rates under the Medium Recovery case.

[Xelat]

At the follwing: Bloomberg
you will find that the Shell Mars Platform may not be online until 06. That's 220,000 barrels less daily of domestic production or 1% of domestic consumption. That, coupled with Thuderhorse being late, seems to suggest that there is no way we could be back to "normal" by New Years. One might further suggest that existing declining prodction will not be offset by new production at the "normal" rate since the oil industry has to repair all this shit first.
I assume "normal" means something like "what we would have produced had we not had any hurricanes whatsoever and the moon was made of cheese".
FMQ, Xelat

[backstop]

Lady Ruby -Unless I misunderstand these graphs they aren't rosy, they're utter nonsense.
1/. They show 3 possible values for Sept 5th, a week ago. It is surely absurd to say that they don't have the data ?
2/. They show a single data set per month, not even per week, thus avoiding showing the trough of closure and progress since then.
3/. Their solid intermediate projection (as opposed to dotted best & worst cases), is not intermediate but hugs the best case asap.
If the US energu brokers reading this were worth their salaries, surely they would be worried by the obvious obscurantism, not calmed by its rosiness ?
I know for a fact that such a projection would be laughed at in the London brokerages.
regards, Backstop
Edit Add : I have indeed misread 05 to mean 5th. Please ignore item one, my oops -

[UncoveringTruths]

Link- Critical energy port at half capacity until at least Wednesday
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')ntergy Corp. has told officials here that it will be Wednesday at the earliest before Port Fourchon is fully powered. Utility crews from across the nation are working to fix power lines that run along Louisiana 1, a two-lane road surrounded by marshlands that connects Fourchon and Grand Isle, La., to drier ground north.

[Eli]

I think you have to tie that report in with the millitants in SA targeting oil infrastructure.

If I was a terrorsit I would go after the port of Houston and some Texas City refineries. Sounds like the LOOP is out as an easy target. Hitting Texas production and refining would be a deadly kick in the yarballs for the US.

[Armageddon]

Link after reading, im really freaked out. it seems we are in trouble quicker than i had realized. i think 2006 is going to be a very precarious year.

[Carrie]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'h')ttp://pesn.com/2005/09/11/9600163_Katrina_Oil_Aftermath/

after reading, im really freaked out. it seems we are in trouble quicker than i had realized. i think 2006 is going to be a very precarious year.