[cornholio]

The biggest conspiracy has always been the fact that there is no conspiracy. Nobody's out to get you. Nobody gives a shit whether you live or die. There, you feel better now?
-- Dennis Miller

I have been bogged down in the concept of peak oil for the last 2 weeks... Thinking about concepts way beyond my training... Worrying about unknowables (how much oil do the Saudis have), conspiracy theories (what do the neoconservatives know, why arent the powerful talking about PO), the economy (will the dollar collapse if fuel supplies appear limited?) and the very future itself (what technologies are feasable, what will industry be able to do in a situation of inflation/limited energy, and what timeframe will all of this happen over).

When I get fatigued and stop and look around I am impressed at how different my new-found worldview is from the rest of the world... Learning about PO is a lot like joining a cult in that it colors the way you look at every issue... Construction of new buildings seems futile and vain, investing for retirement seems foolish, marriage seems pointless (unless the spouse has survival skills), childbirth seems cruel and unnecessary, jet vacations seem wasteful and melencholy.... In short, PO has just fed my already dysthymic tendencies..

Then I start wondering what the chances are that I actually stumbled upon the pivotal concept that will bring our society/civilization tumbling down in my lifetime while cruising the internet for conspiracy theories.... AND, that the global industries, financial markets and governments which have many more resources for information gathering and processing than I do, and more to lose than I do, have not recognized this problem, sounded an alarm and acted to avert disaster (if it is in fact comming). In short, what are the chances that I have found an internet group with links to articles supporting a worldview more insightful and accurate than that accepted by industry think-tanks, financial markets, and the nations governments...

I know that people will point out that the "sheeple" cant be expected to see what's comming, that the government/industry know about PO but are content to milk the profits for as much as they can because they are "secure" in their wealth and planning for a police state anyway... But it doesnt make sense that a society (the US) aided by economic forcasters, industry and "think tanks," wouldn't recognize a problem of this magnitude and attempt to steer clear of it if it were that immediate and real.

In summary, although I cannot intellectually disprove the concept of peak oil or personally assess its consequences I have a sense that I MUST be blowing this out of proportion as my understanding of the future has become so divergent from that of all mainstream thinking. It is not impossible that my worst imaginings will come true, but it does not seem likely.

There is little cost to leaving more frugally and reacting to developments if and when they happen, but it is very costly to get wrapped up emotionally and financially in planning for a depressing future which may or may not be arriving anytime soon.

[rogerhb]

Use the "Uncertainity Principle" Luke.

(a) If I do something about it and nothing happens then X.

(b) If I ignore it and it does happen then Y.

If Y is worse than X then opt for (a).

[cornholio]

(continued)

Things that make me sleep better at night....

1) Nuclear Fission using breeder reactors... http://www.argee.net/DefenseWatch/Nucle ... actors.htm
2) Nanotechnology as an aid for transition to a hydrogen economy http://www.medicalnewstoday.com/medical ... wsid=21895
3) Nanotechnology as an aid for transition to a hydrogen economy
http://www.fuelcelltoday.com/FuelCellTo ... 73,00.html
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news ... astic.html
4) Hybrid car technology
http://www.usatoday.com/money/autos/200 ... rers_x.htm
5) Fuel Cells
http://msnbc.msn.com/id/8228479/
http://www.greencarcongress.com/2005/05 ... ollo_.html
6) Combination of nanotechnology and solar technology
http://www.forbes.com/2004/10/21/cz_jw_ ... print.html
http://www.fuelcelltoday.com/FuelCellTo ... 73,00.html
7) Nano-technology to create alternatives to platinum (a limited resource) to make conversion to a hydrogen fuel cell based fleet of cars sustainable
http://www.azonano.com/news.asp?newsID=815
natural gas and coal exist and are ready to use now
9) america has an infrastructure of roads, rail, resources, knowledge and manpower that will not disappear with a financial meltdown
10) if all economies melt-down, america still has a lot of resources...
11) if all currencies are threatened by instability, is the Euro or the Yen really that much better a bet than the dollar? : )
12) The american economy/infrastructure will not quit working/producing/ or quit trying to find a solution to decreasing energy supplies just because current energy sources are contracting... It will try to adapt and do work
13) Decreasing Oil is not lack of oil... there will be time to adapt. It may mean loss of luxury items, free money and even air-conditioning in the near and even long term but it does not mean absence of energy.

The arguements that nuclear power based on uranium is not sustainable is false already (given breeder reactor technology which is ready to use today) and the arguement that fuel cells are not sustainable due to limited amounts of platinum are close to being disproven due to microtechnology (as above) providing catalyst options.

There is a pessimism on this board regarding development of future technologies. While it is true that all are not available today for mass production it is not hard to imagine a future driven by a combination of energy sources unavailable today.

Many on this board predict a coincidence of worse case scenarios (collapse of the dollar, collapse of useful industrial food production/distribution, cessation of development of infrastructure and technology to adapt to decreasing oil)... While the worse case is possible, I believe that some pain during a period of economic contraction/depression followed by adjustment some decades later seems more likely.

I think that some on this board want to see a return to the farm and dont want to see an evolution to another stage of industrial society for personal reasons... While that lifestyle will always be a personal option I do think that technology is moving foreward in a way to allow enough engergy to power some of the comforts of modern life and some of the industry supporting it sustainably.

[cornholio]

Things that make me think all of my confidence is misplaced... : )

[bbadwolf]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cornholio', 'T')hings that make me think all of my confidence is misplaced... : )

[Colorado-Valley]

The great thing about peak oil for me is that it has allowed me to see just how shallow and unfulfilling the consumer lifestyle reallly is.

It's woken me up from the drone of television commericals and given me a sense of freedom.

To me it's been a gift. I love being awake, even if it's kind of scary.

[engulfthemanatee]

I totally know what you mean. I have been immersed in PO for several months myself, and I found out about the issue while reading about Strauss & Howe's theory of generational cycles (which opened my eyes even more than PO, it's great stuff). While I am convinced that we are entering a crisis mode very soon (again, see Strauss and Howe's "The Fourth Turning"), I am not sure if peak oil will be the centerpiece of it anymore.

I guess it's just that after Katrina, and after watching the oil prices go up to record highs all summer, and watching none of that have any major effect, I am starting to waver.

I know suburban/modern life is a crock of shit. I knew this before PO. But I just can't help but wonder that peak oil is overblown. I know this is probably the wrong place to be announcing this, but I'm just saying.

I would love to be proved both right and wrong, for different reasons.

[FairMaiden]

Conspiracy exists - but its not "hidden" or "secret" - and its called big business. The government works for the corporations, not the citizens (see the movie The Corporation for a good look on that). Who is benefitting from the high oil prices? The same ppl who bought the street cars in the '50s & '60s & lobbied the gov't to build superhighways...making us completely dependant on personal vehicles for transportation.
Why hasn't Bush signed Kyoto - bad for business.
Why did the US subsidized the oil prices after the '70s peak? And let the natural demand/supply of free market do its thing to force us to curb our oil dependancy? Oh yea - bad for business!

I think the economy is going to slow down and create a situation before peak oil has its full impact. In some ways, it might be good for us...but it will be just as uncomfortable as some of the scenerios depicted here. We have the gov't dipping its hand into the free market to stave off a natural recession that should have started in '00. We have artificially low interest rates...the US dollar is facing major problems *(many countries are already jumping ship and switching to the Euro)....the writing in the wall...Greenspan has been holding back a dam of economic disaster & when he retires, it will flow...

[jtmorgan61]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hings that make me sleep better at night....

[FairMaiden]

Also...I would note that hydrogen is NOT a fuel source, it merely stores fuel. The amount of net energy derived from hydrogen is almost zero.

Tho, we are successfully using thermodynamics in some countries.

We have had hydro-electic capacity since 1990 (I know, I build such a car as my HS science project - if I can build it, I'm SURE the great minds of the world can). Yet, the car and its engine didn't change for decades. Why? Because it was making the big bucks and had no monetary desire to do so. Now if you look at more alternative fuel sources, you will see that their owners are the same ppl who are holding us back from switching. Why are hybrid cars so much more expensive when the parts only cost $500 more? Why are there waiting list for over 6 months in the marketplace?

[LadyRuby]

The concept of peak oil is real. It's a simple issue of supply and demand.

The consequences are debatable. Generally I think there's agreement that there will be hardship, but how adaptable we will be is uncertain. I see serious hardships, a major transition, but not a total collapse of society. Think great depression.

[bruin]

Actually, Hurricane Katrina does much show why PO is not mainstream.

Even when Katrina was going 175mph and looked like NO was going to get smashed in a day or two, what was our government doing? Waiting. Let's see what happens. A couple of scientists pointed out the problems, but for the most part, don't worry.

Then by luck, the hurricane veered right. As it turns out, that was even worse because NO flooded anyways and now Mississippi also got hit hard. But happened then? More waiting. Let's see what happens. Don't worry.

Now that we are well past it, we're all mad and scurrying around and trying to blame everyone from Bush to the homeless.


So now we have another hurricane called Peak Oil. Don't worry. Let's see what happens first.

[cornholio]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('LadyRuby', ' ') I see serious hardships, a major transition, but not a total collapse of society. Think great depression.

[engulfthemanatee]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jtmorgan61', 'A')ny guesses what the centerpiece is going to be? I'm still kind of inclined to think (hope?) that what will actually happen is that we're going to make a traumatic, dislocating shift to being a more awake, peaceful culture generally, driven by climate change, recession, hitting the consumerist culture wall, maybe a loose nuke or two... but lately I dunno...

[WebHubbleTelescope]