by bbadwolf » Mon 05 Sep 2005, 18:40:08
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Antimatter', '
')I guess what I was getting at is that I don't see EROEI nor the laws of physics as hampering the roll out of non-fossil energy as they are already better in some cases (EROEI of US oil and gas is 10-15 according to Cleveland and Kaufmann), and there is plenty of energy out there for the taking in the form of solar (inc. wind) and nuclear. To me the issue is weather or not we can/will build them fast enough, which comes down to economics and social issues. When I'm feeling optimistic I agree with Jaymax that market forces will eventually make it doable, but the scale does indeed seem daunting. Guess I'll sit on the fence for a bit longer.

J & I seem to be coming to an agreement to disagree. I did not originally understand that he finds solace in in some longer term possibilities while my faith in them is limited (fusion and high efficiency solar conversion). This leads him to think we can continue our profligate lifestyles with alternatives merely making up the difference in fossil fuel declines til these inventions come about. Not completely impossible as long as you factor in fusion etc.
My lack of faith in these future advancements leads me to argue that with currently available alternatives, land, water and other limitations will prevent us from scaling these up to anything near what might be called profligate energy use not to mention that the low energy returns inherently result in loss of living standards even if we could scale them up.
So our essential disagreement was over whether we would be able to continue our exorbitant lifestyles. Not surprising that I didn't see your point, as it had little to do with what J and I were discussing.
That said, I see your point. EROEI has diminishing returns. News to me, but ok. I have no evidence either way. However, none of the alternatives current on the table have an EROEI anywhere near that of conventional oil, that which built our society. With lower energy profits, we expend more effort for each unit of energy harvested and by the laws of physics, we have a reduced standard of living. (reduced from the current standard provided by oil, that is) Even unconventional oil and tar sands are lowering our standard of living right now, although we don't really have a choice now, do we. They also keep Mr Bush's precious system of musical $ from collapsing and lowering the standard living abruptly, tar sands do have some value!
The laws of physics certainly do not prevent rolling out the alternatives. However, my biggest concern has to do with how our economy will deal with the necessarily lower standard of living. I mentioned in another post that I have a bad feeling there is an avalanche point. We can probably contract economically by a small percentage quite gracefully, everyone will bitch and complain but we'll be ok. But at some rate of contraction, the economy will simply implode with each disaster invoking yet another disaster til the world starts looking like a science-fiction movie.
Now take the necessity of a lower standard of living coming with/regardless of the rollout of alternative forms of energy harvest. Add to that the likelihood of this avalanche point and the fact that no one knows what contraction rate will trigger the phenomenon...
In short, in a low EROEI society, we may well not have the resources to deploy new energy fast enough to prevent complete meltdown even if we're co-operating with each other! It would be prevented by the laws of physics. Which is WHY I was in this discussion in the first place.
This possibility scares the hell out of me, particularly since it looks quite likely. And if Simmons is correct and Saudi declines rapidly. (head for the hills time) If Uncle Bin gets lucky...hell, even a simple economic depression might be enough to topple the whole house of cards.
Four months ago, I thought our descendents would zip around the stars and swoosh their light sabers. What a disappointment!
-bbad