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Proof that necessity doesn't mean we can accomplish anything

Discussions of conventional and alternative energy production technologies.

Proof that necessity doesn't mean we can accomplish anything

Postby gluc0se » Sun 04 Sep 2005, 03:46:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin', 'B')ut, you know, in a state of emergency, man, you are creative, you figure out ways to get stuff done.

Then they told me that they went overnight, and they built 17 concrete structures and they had the pulleys on them and they were going to drop them.

I flew over that thing yesterday, and it's in the same shape that it was after the storm hit. There is nothing happening. And they're feeding the public a line of bull and they're spinning, and people are dying down here.


I'm not saying it's completely identical, but it does go to show that when that fateful day comes, and we either have enough energy or we don't, that doesn't mean we will suddenly be able to develop an alternative, just because we finally have no other options (as some people suggest...).
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Re: Proof that necessity doesn't mean we can accomplish anyt

Postby Raxozanne » Sun 04 Sep 2005, 06:13:19

What!!!???

You mean to tell me that necessity isn't necessarily the mother of invention? :razz:

No I'm sure that's not right, surely THEY'LL THINK OF SOMETHING at the last minute.
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Re: Proof that necessity doesn't mean we can accomplish anyt

Postby linlithgowoil » Sun 04 Sep 2005, 07:34:47

im confident that we'll come up with something. not to continue the way we are going right now - i.e. consumerism at any expense, but a way in which to make sure there is no die off.

we can do it if we want to but will america willingly accept a lower standard of living in order to prevent poor people dying? dont know about that.
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Re: Proof that necessity doesn't mean we can accomplish anyt

Postby Concerned » Sun 04 Sep 2005, 08:02:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gluc0se', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin', 'B')ut, you know, in a state of emergency, man, you are creative, you figure out ways to get stuff done.

Then they told me that they went overnight, and they built 17 concrete structures and they had the pulleys on them and they were going to drop them.

I flew over that thing yesterday, and it's in the same shape that it was after the storm hit. There is nothing happening. And they're feeding the public a line of bull and they're spinning, and people are dying down here.


I'm not saying it's completely identical, but it does go to show that when that fateful day comes, and we either have enough energy or we don't, that doesn't mean we will suddenly be able to develop an alternative, just because we finally have no other options (as some people suggest...).


Peak Oil is a mid to long term problem. A real disaster scenario IMO is our ability to re-tool over the mid to long term to alternate energies and not change our fundamental flaw of constant growth based economies.

If we succeed moving to hybrids or hydrogen our next resource limitation may well be arable land or clean drinking water.

If that comes to pass with more global interlocked economies then look out we may have sown the seeds for a "real" die off scenario. Based on the highest bidder gaining access to resources.

I have to chuckle at the posts that say Canada, USA and Australia are large exporters of grains therefore we should be able to feed the local population. LOL

Do you think the powers that be would freely distribute grain to the local population or sell it to the highest bidder e.g. China, Europe or India?
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Re: Proof that necessity doesn't mean we can accomplish anyt

Postby Macsporan » Sun 04 Sep 2005, 08:41:05

This is proof that the present regime in the US is in the habit of appointing incompetent windbags to high positions, nothing more.

There is nothing here that a change of government, a purge of inept hacks and the promotion of capable men and the restoring of cut budgets and a little time won't fix.

When it becomes necessary to do these things there is a strong chance that the necessary leadership will emerge.

Especially if all you American POers agitate furiously that it does.

This is admittedly harder than whining about the world and congratulating each other on how sophisticated and superior we all are in consigning billions to a horrible death, but it is far more productive.

Especially if you enjoy being alive yourself. :razz:
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Re: Proof that necessity doesn't mean we can accomplish anyt

Postby Jack » Sun 04 Sep 2005, 09:05:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('linlithgowoil', 'i')m confident that we'll come up with something. not to continue the way we are going right now - i.e. consumerism at any expense, but a way in which to make sure there is no die off.

we can do it if we want to but will america willingly accept a lower standard of living in order to prevent poor people dying? dont know about that.


I certainly wouldn't accept a lower standard of living. I see no reason to do so.

Why should we "make sure there is no die off"? That's the fundamental question.
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Re: Proof that necessity doesn't mean we can accomplish anyt

Postby richardmmm » Sun 04 Sep 2005, 09:07:45

what's going on in NO. is some kind of heel dragging political manoevering.

it's about getting total federal control of the state or something.

i think they are trying out a strategy to see how badly they can mess things up so the local government caves in.

plus i hate to say it but the population is 67% african american.....so frankly no one gives a damn.

pull a stunt like this in Boston or Hartford and they'd be marching the streets of washington to ransack the whitehouse.

how is it possible that they waited a week to send the hostipal ship down there ? It should have been prepared and set sail while the hurricane was coming in.........

how is it possible that they didn't get some big ass diesel generators in there to power the superdome aircon.

how is it possible that they couldn't airlift some food over to the superdome on monday evening / tuesday morning.

you put some staff on, you clean the toilets, you pump some water into the place, you fire up generators you make the place workable. in 24hours basically by tuesday morning this could have been easily taken care of. frankly if the major or the governor had any balls he would have set up an office there and overseen the whole operation.

they did jack shit.

i can't see someone like Rudi Guilani handling it such a lame ass way can you ?

there is obviously some twisted politics going on between the major the governor of LA and the federal government.

why weren't troops locked and loaded and ready to move in on sunday night..............as soon as the hurricane passed the convoys could have rolled in.

i mean ok, it hit a relatively large area, but they could have had everything lined up in Houston or Dallas and been into NO by Monday afternoon.

it's not hard the US has huge resources, even with troops overseas.

it's just a total lack of balls, lack of hardheaded leadership, lack of humanity.

just limp dick politicans shuffling about.
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Re: Proof that necessity doesn't mean we can accomplish anyt

Postby Macsporan » Sun 04 Sep 2005, 11:21:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jack', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('linlithgowoil', 'i')m confident that we'll come up with something. not to continue the way we are going right now - i.e. consumerism at any expense, but a way in which to make sure there is no die off.

we can do it if we want to but will america willingly accept a lower standard of living in order to prevent poor people dying? dont know about that.


I certainly wouldn't accept a lower standard of living. I see no reason to do so.

Why should we "make sure there is no die off"? That's the fundamental question.


You will have no choice. The American Way of Life is so very, very negotiable.

You're a bad man, Jack, and if you have your way, one day, in a foreign land, somebody will put a bullet through your wicked brain.8)

In the meantime you may continue to be amusing.
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Re: Proof that necessity doesn't mean we can accomplish anyt

Postby Jaymax » Sun 04 Sep 2005, 11:32:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gluc0se', 'I')'m not saying it's completely identical, but it does go to show that when that fateful day comes, and we either have enough energy or we don't, that doesn't mean we will suddenly be able to develop an alternative, just because we finally have no other options (as some people suggest...).


Let alone not being identical, there is no connection.

I'm possibly one of the most confident around here that 'necessity' will be what brings around a solution to human energy issues. I'd go so far as to say, a couple of decades past peak, transport energy will be in greater supply and cost less per unit energy than it did the week-before-last.

Thing is, I don't think anyone (perhaps BiGG) has suggested "we will suddenly be able to develop an alternative" - but then as others have said, there's nothing sudden about peak oil either. There will be no 'fateful day'.

Humanity is terribly resourceful, that doesn't always make it agile.

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Re: Proof that necessity doesn't mean we can accomplish anyt

Postby Z » Sun 04 Sep 2005, 11:47:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jaymax', 'I')'d go so far as to say, a couple of decades past peak, transport energy will be in greater supply and cost less per unit energy than it did the week-before-last.


If it were possible, why hasn't it already been done? It's not like we started using oil yesterday. It's not like we are as ignorant as we were, say, 50 years ago. Yet 98% of global energy needs are fulfilled from non-renewable ressources.
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Re: Proof that necessity doesn't mean we can accomplish anyt

Postby JustinFrankl » Sun 04 Sep 2005, 12:13:48

History is littered with societies that imploded, collapsed, were assimilated, eaten, or abandoned. What happened to the necessity they should have had in order to solve their problems and survive?

A feeling of necessity is insufficient. It takes at least necessity, will, and available energy/resources. Some people here see the necessity. Few people in general have the will. As for available energy and resources, well that's the debate currently still in process.

My vote still falls on the side of, "no, we don't have the resources to equitably address this problem within the system".
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Re: Proof that necessity doesn't mean we can accomplish anyt

Postby linlithgowoil » Sun 04 Sep 2005, 12:52:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') certainly wouldn't accept a lower standard of living. I see no reason to do so.

Why should we "make sure there is no die off"? That's the fundamental question.


Oh yeah, you're the guy who would gladly have a million people die so that you can still have an suv.

I'm afraid you're not going to have much choice - america is in the worst possible position right now because you've all gotten used to wasting oil and cant comprehend doing without.

Also, because the economy of the world is totally interdependent, any demand destruciton in 'poorer' countries will cause collapse in the usa also. Oh well.
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Re: Proof that necessity doesn't mean we can accomplish anyt

Postby Jaymax » Sun 04 Sep 2005, 13:20:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Z', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jaymax', 'I')'d go so far as to say, a couple of decades past peak, transport energy will be in greater supply and cost less per unit energy than it did the week-before-last.


If it were possible, why hasn't it already been done?


Because humans (gene's/biology) are inherently selfish. We seek to provide the best immediate environment for those closest to us, especially our children. It's abstracted now, to the point that we acuse people of being greedy all the time, when it's nothing more than an essential biolgical trait. That abstraction is what makes it easy to pontificate over something like global-warming, also important to our children, but not in an immediate sense.

The need has always been met in the most efficient way possible. Up till now that's meant burning dino-blood. Stop looking for a reason why it hasn't been done already - the point is there's no direct greed-driven reason why it should have been.

That's about to change. It hasn't been done already because there were no market pressures to do so. Peak Oil is approaching, and suddenly, over the last five years or so, the alternative energy industry has exploded.

Co-incidence? Hardly... Just profit, greed, selfishness, biology - it's all the same thing.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JustinFrankl', 'H')istory is littered with societies that imploded, collapsed, were assimilated, eaten, or abandoned. What happened to the necessity they should have had in order to solve their problems and survive?


And yet here we are, in huge numbers, cuturally decended from greek, roman and other 'failed' societies. Guess necessity did work afterall, huh?

You're focussing on the blips, rather than the trend.

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Re: Proof that necessity doesn't mean we can accomplish anyt

Postby Ghog » Sun 04 Sep 2005, 13:27:14

I am getting sick and tired of the American bashing. Not all 250 million of us drive SUVs and waste energy. Many of us garden, ride bikes and care about the environment. Don't blame all of us for a historically 'weak' government and a small percentage of arrogant internet loudmouths.

It's also hypocritical in hoping for America's collapse while fighting against a dieoff scenario. A few have called for this and a collapse will result in deaths.

We expect eveyone to work together to solve the World's problems? Get real. The generalizations on here show why that won't happen. I think those outside the US who hope for its destruction are just as poor an excuse in humanity as those American's you despise so much.

This has no place on these boards.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')ou're a bad man, Jack, and if you have your way, one day, in a foreign land, somebody will put a bullet through your wicked brain.
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Re: Proof that necessity doesn't mean we can accomplish anyt

Postby Ghog » Sun 04 Sep 2005, 13:29:03

<dp>
Last edited by Ghog on Sun 04 Sep 2005, 23:09:47, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Proof that necessity doesn't mean we can accomplish anyt

Postby Raxozanne » Sun 04 Sep 2005, 13:32:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jaymax', 'I')'d go so far as to say, a couple of decades past peak, transport energy will be in greater supply and cost less per unit energy than it did the week-before-last.


:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
Wow jaymax with that attitude shouldn't your doomersity level be 0 on your scale?

Market forces would have developed cheaper energy if it were available out there and within our scientific grasp because greed is bigger than selfishness in this world.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nd yet here we are, in huge numbers, cuturally decended from greek, roman and other 'failed' societies. Guess necessity did work afterall, huh?


No actually if just goes to show what prolific breeders the survivors were.
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Re: Proof that necessity doesn't mean we can accomplish anyt

Postby Z » Sun 04 Sep 2005, 13:36:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jaymax', 'B')ecause humans (gene's/biology) are inherently selfish. We seek to provide the best immediate environment for those closest to us, especially our children.


You don't answer my question. If I were to agree with you ( and I am not, it's not selfishness that's inherent, it's the urge to survive - whatever the means ), it doesn't explain why someone/some corporation didn't come with a new source of cheaper energy and reaped huge profits of it. Your current argument seems in total contradiction with your previous one.
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Re: Proof that necessity doesn't mean we can accomplish anyt

Postby Jack » Sun 04 Sep 2005, 14:26:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Macsporan', '
')
You're a bad man, Jack, and if you have your way, one day, in a foreign land, somebody will put a bullet through your wicked brain.8)

In the meantime you may continue to be amusing.


One can ask no more. Having seen friends die the other kind of death, I'll take that bullet every time. And if I've shared a laugh or two with a worthy opponent, then I shall regard my life as well lived.

Perhaps I may yet win a place in Freya's halls. 8)
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Re: Proof that necessity doesn't mean we can accomplish anyt

Postby bbadwolf » Sun 04 Sep 2005, 16:31:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jaymax', 'I')'m possibly one of the most confident around here that 'necessity' will be what brings around a solution to human energy issues. I'd go so far as to say, a couple of decades past peak, transport energy will be in greater supply and cost less per unit energy than it did the week-before-last.


Necessity can do a lot but cannot do the impossible. Here are some things we know.

Energy comes from ONE place, only one, the sun. In the case of hydrocarbons, a large non-renewable quantity was stashed away just waiting for us.

We know exactly how many elements there are. We know there are NO new ones to discover.

We know the amount of energy available in each chemical bond. We can exhaustively examine the potential for ALL possible chemical reactions.

We know what's in the ground. We've drilled far too many holes and examined the material, there are NO large surprises here. Nothing large could avoid detection with that many holes. Besides, we also know quite a bit about the formation of the earth, which further supports the argument there is nothing new down there (nothing big enough anyway). We can subject this to a search for all possible chemical reactions and easily see that there is no large unexploited fuel source in the ground. It simply doesn't exist. Because it can't.

We've similarly explored the entire surface of the planet. Here, we have found some things and we call them alternative energy sources. None are as abundant as fossil fuels and they are all much expensive and none of them scale very well when compared to fossil fuels.

Therefore your prediction of greater energy supply at even better prices is physically impossible, it breaks natural law! There is NO supply side solution (ok, fusion is conceivable, if unlikely). I'm in favor of optimism but we need to keep our eyes open. Little sense in attempting the impossible. Any real solution will be on the demand side and lead us in the direction of what we currently consider to be a greatly lowered standard of living.

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Re: Proof that necessity doesn't mean we can accomplish anyt

Postby Jaymax » Sun 04 Sep 2005, 17:03:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Raxozanne', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jaymax', 'I')'d go so far as to say, a couple of decades past peak, transport energy will be in greater supply and cost less per unit energy than it did the week-before-last.


:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
Wow jaymax with that attitude shouldn't your doomersity level be 0 on your scale?


No - you've failed to understand me, or I've failed to express myself very well, for you to say that.

I believe PeakOil will be a huge event for the world, and will impact to some extent the nature of western society. While the future is the future, all outcomes remain possible, however currently I switch back and forth between levels 3 and 2.

Like many of us here, I started off at 0, read loads, and progressed over about four years to Doomerosity level 5 after belonging to this site for a while. A few more optimistic posters made me want to back up my beliefs and argue with them with hard numbers, and so I started crunching and researching. Around that time I also toured the UKs fusion research facility and talked to some of the engineers and scientists.

I found that my research didn't support my position - the situation with renewables wasn't as bad as many make out, the peak plateau and subsequent drop would be gentler than many make out, the state of hydrogen/fuelcell reseach and development is much more promising than many make out.

But - there needs to be profit opportunities to bring all these to fruition and to market - and that takes time. And so times will be hard, maybe very hard - probably worst case 1930's style great depression hard.

That's hardly level 0.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')arket forces would have developed cheaper energy if it were available out there and within our scientific grasp because greed is bigger than selfishness in this world.


Simply not true - market forces work to near-term timescales, and generally incremental improvements. Market forces by themselves do not bring about wholesale change or fund research likely to take years.

Hydrogen storage and fuel-cell tech is a good example - this stuff has been on the lab benches and in university research papers for decades. Why is the market only interested now? Because they can see profit out of the tech within the next 3-4 years (some are making money today, providing reaseach to car manufacturers etc).

Thus market forces will now (ARE now) ensure ongoing much faster research, and incremental improvements being delivered to market.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nd yet here we are, in huge numbers, cuturally decended from greek, roman and other 'failed' societies. Guess necessity did work afterall, huh?


No actually if just goes to show what prolific breeders the survivors were.

'Survivors'? sorry, that would imply a die-off at the end of these societies. I'm not a history buff, but that's a new concept to me - and couldn't find a suggestion of same at wikipedia. When the English Empire failed, there wasn't a die-off and need for prolific breeding... But the culture remained. This is one of the things doomers get wrong all the time, thinking that the failure of the foundations of a societal model somehow means a catastrophe for everyone who is part of that society.

I guess an example to support what you're saying would be the Easter Island peoples?

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