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Did anybody listen to this week's Financial Sense Newshour?

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Did anybody listen to this week's Financial Sense Newshour?

Unread postby wilburke » Sat 03 Sep 2005, 15:23:21

http://www.netcastdaily.com/broadcast/fsn2005-0903-1.mp3

Jim Puplava did a special 50 minute analysis of the current situation, with some interesting info on the damage to the infrastructure, but he also managed to add two rather controversial points to his analysis:

1) The lack of refineries in this countries is the fault of the environmentalists.

2) Not only is there is no link between global warming and the severity of storms, but there is also no evidence that global warming is a man-made "event". His source for this point is an interview done with Prof. William Gray, a noted hurrican forecaster. A link to an interview with Gray is in the link below:

http://www.discover.com/issues/sep-05/departments/discover-dialogue/

I find this analysis to be of dubious quality (in the most polite language I can muster), but I want to know what everyone thinks about this.
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Re: Did anybody listen to this week's Financial Sense Newsho

Unread postby UIUCstudent01 » Sat 03 Sep 2005, 15:39:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '1')) The lack of refineries in this countries is the fault of the environmentalists.


Can he explain this?

I've been hearing that the lack of refineries may be because they don't expect any more (or very much more) oil going through the refineries because of Peak Oil... The financial investment wouldn't be worth it..

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '2')) Not only is there is no link between global warming and the severity of storms, but there is also no evidence that global warming is a man-made "event". His source for this point is an interview done with Prof. William Gray, a noted hurrican forecaster. A link to an interview with Gray is in the link below:


I have recently come to the conclusion that there is big business in developing alternative or contradictory answeres to everything. We live in a surreal world now where everything can be argued and debated... and there is financial interests in keeping up the debate whether for distraction or delay.

With global warming or climate change though, I doubt that such a lie can be made up by so many scientists. And the ones that may knock it down get payed by the oil and gas industries or may think they provide a service of questioning the belief.

Either way, everything is debated until everything eventually collapses.
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Re: Did anybody listen to this week's Financial Sense Newsho

Unread postby Such » Sat 03 Sep 2005, 17:12:48

Well... the US does import about 1 million barrels of finished gasoline and diesel products each day because our refinery capacity is below our crude requirements.

Also, we have exploration and drilling bans on the east coast, the west coast, and florida coast. We can't even shoot seismic data in these regions. Florida western offshore undoubtedly has tremendous amounts of gas and some oil. There is probably some oil off the east coast as well, just like the eastern Canadian Newfoundland fields.
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Re: Did anybody listen to this week's Financial Sense Newsho

Unread postby UIUCstudent01 » Sat 03 Sep 2005, 18:26:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Such', 'W')ell... the US does import about 1 million barrels of finished gasoline and diesel products each day because our refinery capacity is below our crude requirements.

Also, we have exploration and drilling bans on the east coast, the west coast, and florida coast. We can't even shoot seismic data in these regions. Florida western offshore undoubtedly has tremendous amounts of gas and some oil. There is probably some oil off the east coast as well, just like the eastern Canadian Newfoundland fields.


I think I saw on C-Span once a Republican Mayor/Congress-Woman/Senator saying that drilling off the coast of Florida is an economic decision because Florida depends on tourism so much...

I would gather it may be similar in California.
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Re: Did anybody listen to this week's Financial Sense Newsho

Unread postby jaws » Sat 03 Sep 2005, 18:37:22

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Re: Did anybody listen to this week's Financial Sense Newsho

Unread postby DantesPeak » Sat 03 Sep 2005, 18:44:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jaws', '[')url=http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic7496.html]Refinery constraints debunked[/url]


Jaws - you beat me to this.

Refinery closings and low proift margins are not explained by environmentalism. Although I pretty much agree with Puplava on the poor financial structure of the US economy, which could fall apart during a sustained energy crisis.
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Re: Did anybody listen to this week's Financial Sense Newsho

Unread postby Ludi » Sat 03 Sep 2005, 21:42:33

Most climate scientists agree global climate change is partially caused by human activity, and partially caused by the fact we're in an interglacial period.


Think about it, though. You can't wipe out several of the biggest carbon sinks on the planet, plus pump a bunch of CO2 into the atmosphere and not have some effect. Really.
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Re: Did anybody listen to this week's Financial Sense Newsho

Unread postby DantesPeak » Sat 03 Sep 2005, 21:50:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'M')ost climate scientists agree global climate change is partially caused by human activity, and partially caused by the fact we're in an interglacial period.


Think about it, though. You can't wipe out several of the biggest carbon sinks on the planet, plus pump a bunch of CO2 into the atmosphere and not have some effect. Really.


Per US oil industry expectations, Ivan in 2004 was a '100 year' storm, and Katrina a '200 year' storm.

Doesn't seem like they factored global warming into their calculations, but they may think twice now about re-building the oil/gas platforms in the Gulf.
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Re: Did anybody listen to this week's Financial Sense Newsho

Unread postby MicroHydro » Sun 04 Sep 2005, 00:16:36

Puplava is a better than average financial commentator. He has no qualifications whatsoever to evaluate environmental issues.
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Re: Did anybody listen to this week's Financial Sense Newsho

Unread postby ab0di » Sat 17 Sep 2005, 16:39:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wilburke', '[')url=http://www.netcastdaily.com/broadcast/fsn2005-0903-1.mp3]http://www.netcastdaily.com/broadcast/fsn2005-0903-1.mp3[/url]

Jim Puplava did a special 50 minute analysis of the current situation, with some interesting info on the damage to the infrastructure, but he also managed to add two rather controversial points to his analysis:

1) The lack of refineries in this countries is the fault of the environmentalists.

2) Not only is there is no link between global warming and the severity of storms, but there is also no evidence that global warming is a man-made "event". His source for this point is an interview done with Prof. William Gray, a noted hurrican forecaster. A link to an interview with Gray is in the link below:

http://www.discover.com/issues/sep-05/departments/discover-dialogue/

I find this analysis to be of dubious quality (in the most polite language I can muster), but I want to know what everyone thinks about this.


It's more than dubious. It's just more Looney Libertarian claptrap and nonsense. I don't expect much else from Puplava and his ilk.
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Re: Did anybody listen to this week's Financial Sense Newsho

Unread postby dunewalker » Sat 17 Sep 2005, 22:07:53

With the descriptions we've seen in the news of the pollution disaster resulting from Hurricane Katrina, how can anyone in good conscience blame environmental concerns for inhibiting "economic progress"? The costs in dollars and lives to deal with this pollution nightmare will be borne by all Americans, indeed much of the world.
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Re: Did anybody listen to this week's Financial Sense Newsho

Unread postby nuhax » Sat 17 Sep 2005, 23:51:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ab0di', 'I')t's more than dubious. It's just more Looney Libertarian claptrap and nonsense. I don't expect much else from Puplava and his ilk.


Care to back that up buddy? Puplava is one of the better financial commentators out there, I listen to Financial Sense regularly and find it a valuable resource and have made money with his advice. You should state some facts supporting your opinions if you disagree with what he said.

Environmental regulations/groups/lawsuits ARE one major factor for the lack of US refineries. In addition it is likely there are other factors as well like the fact that the profit margin was fairly low in the past and margins were shrinking due to refinery overcapacity in the 80s. There was a study done by the feds that showed environmental regs themselves were a small portion of total costs--however my understanding is there were a lot of problems with that study as it did not include lawsuit costs, delays/expected delays in construction and and these related costs as compared to profit margin. In other words, just an example to illustrate why comparison matters: if the environmental reg costs are only 4%, that doesn't sound like much but if profit margin is only 4% above costs w/o regs then the regs eat up the profit. Investors expect profits and good ones for a 5 year project costing billions with a lot of risk and a low profit margin. Also it costs a lot of money to convert exisiting plants to cleaner, newer regs--if a plant is barely profitable or not profitable then it makes more sense to shut it down than to incur additonal costs of environmental regs.

From a recent Forbes article detailing refinery costs:

"Building a new refinery costs $5 billion and would take five years," says Oppenheimer oil analyst Fadel Gheit.

"Moreover, environmental regulations and inevitable lawsuits from groups opposing refineries popping up in their backyard mean oil companies risk sinking billions into breaking ground, only to never see a facility get up and running.

"An oil company would need to hire about 15 lawyers just to argue it won't break any environmental regulations," Gheit says.

Indeed, Arizona Clean Fuels, an organization that bills itself as committed to building newer and better refineries that burn gasoline more cleanly, has been through the wringer for a decade as it's tried to get a refinery up in the Yuma area. In April, the group finally got an air permit--the document needed to demonstrate it's complying with federal and state pollution laws--five years after it began the application process.

"And Arizona's regulations, if anything, are less prohibitive than most states," says Ian Calkins, a spokesman for Arizona Clean Fuels. "No one would even think about building in California, where regulations are even tougher."

In addition to common business challenges like financing and securing customer contracts, the group has spent the better part of the last ten years navigating the National Environmental Policy Act, which means showing why a refinery won't negatively affect everything from flowers and shrubs to endangered species of animals.

"It's been a long process--you need to know everything that's out there [regarding nature]," Calkins says. "We're trying to stay confident we'll eventually get it done, though we're also realistic."

Meanwhile, Gheit thinks it may take gasoline at $5 to $6 a gallon at U.S. pumps to spur a relaxation of the rules.

"The president brought up the idea of using abandoned military bases as refineries, but no one is jumping. The rules are just so stifling," he says.

http://www.forbes.com/business/2005/09/ ... eries.html

========================================

Refinery gets permit
Group To Take Refinery Permit Battle to EPA as State issues permit

A grass-roots citizens group that opposes the proposed refinery vowed to take their fight to the Environmental Protection Agency, asking that agency to take over responsibility for enforcement and compliance.

[...]

Theresa Ulmer, spokeswoman for Yuma County Citizens for Clean Air, said: "We're going to fight this air permit."

http://www.refineryreform.org/News_YumaSun_041505.html

========================================

"Nationwide, some 149 refineries currently operate, processing nearly 17 million barrels of crude a day, noted Bob Slaughter, president of the National Petrochemical and Refiners Association. In 1981, the nation was home to 325 refineries, handling 18.6 million barrels a day, Slaughter said. "

[...]

"In part, Rousseau argues, that's because refiners have tackled the easier expansion projects. Refiners also have been busy making changes to meet new lower-sulfur regulations. Investment also has been stifled by concerns over a shifting federal regulation known as New Source Review. During the Clinton administration, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency began to insist that the law required refiners to make environmental upgrades when performing what the industry deemed routine maintenance. Prodded by industry, the Bush administration backpedaled on that interpretation. Now the issue is in court."

[...]

The partners [Arizona Clean Fuels] hope to begin construction in 2006 and begin refining crude by the end of the decade. Many in the industry remain dubious. After all, the Arizona Clean Fuels partners have been trying to obtain the necessary air permits since 1999.

http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mp ... ic/2990832

========================================

"It is unlikely that new refineries will be built in California. In fact, from 1985 to 1995, 10 California refineries closed, resulting in a 20 percent reduction in refining capacity. Further refinery closures are expected for small refineries with capacities of less than 50,000 barrels per day. The cost of complying with environmental regulations and low product prices will continue to make it difficult to continue operating older, less efficient refineries.

To comply with federal and state regulations, California refiners invested approximately $5.8 billion to upgrade their facilities to produce cleaner fuels, including reformulated gasoline and low-sulfur diesel fuel."

http://www.energy.ca.gov/oil/refineries.html

If you do a web search you will find numerous other lawsuits against oil refineries, so I don't think what Puplava mentioned is so far out of line...
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Re: Did anybody listen to this week's Financial Sense Newsho

Unread postby jimmydean » Sun 18 Sep 2005, 06:31:14

On refinery capacity I think the answer lies with the oil industry itself. Chevron CEO recently discussed this on CNN saying that over the last 30 years existing U.S. refineries have simply grown larger and more technologically advanced enough to keep pace with demand. The long term issues is not refineries though but the fact that there is little to no new discovery. Oil companies know full well that the cost for discovery at this point probably won't produce an appropriate ROI.

On global warming it's pretty clear there is no concensus. From a pure logic point of view I find it very hard to believe that 6B+ people on this planet along with about 30% of the earth's nations being fully industrialized are not in some way going to be a factor on global temperatures.
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Re: Anybody listen to this week's Financial Sense Newshour?

Unread postby TheDude » Fri 03 Oct 2008, 08:42:38

Image

Last one was a good listen, Jim was way more heated about the ignorance concerning peak oil amongst our elected idiots than he was about Ben 'n Hank. Figures since he had returned from the Sacramento ASPO conference. Really full of invective.

Kept saying they'd play some clips from it too but it wasn't in the show.
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Re: Anybody listen to this week's Financial Sense Newshour?

Unread postby lowem » Fri 03 Oct 2008, 12:01:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', 'K')ept saying they'd play some clips from it too but it wasn't in the show.


They had 3 speakers from ASPO in last week's broadcast - Robert Hirsch, Matt Simmons, and Chris Skrebowski.

It's in part 3b. Check it out.
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