[frankthetank]

With mornings growing colder (it was upper 40's last night) i thought i'd dive into the thinking that we might run out of gas this winter.

After looking through a chart that goes back to the '70s i've come to a conclusion that i don't think we'll run out this year. HOWEVER, I do have a few questions.
IN 1996, 2001, 2003 we were down to almost 700 Mcf (in MAR). If i recall correctly all those years had very cold winters in the midwest/NE (something to watch for this winter). How low can this number get??? Can it go down to near zero? Sooner or laters its going to happen!

The peak in storage comes in OCT...the low point is always MAR.
THe lowest storage going into the heating season since 1977 was in OCT 2000 with 2,728 Bcf ........ CURRENTLY we sit @ 2,633 Bcf
Here is theLINK

Wild card seems to be Katrina, since last weekend we've ONLY (!) been losing roughly 8 Mcf a day...(thats a loss of 56 Mcf for the week) which was the total injection (net change) into storage for the previous week.
Therefore can we assume that next week won't see any increase in storage?

What do you think? There is a ton of info @ the EIA website on withdrawls/injections etc etc from way back in the 70's...But its difficult to come up with any solid conclusions.
Surviving in 90F heat with no AC is one thing, Surviving in -25F cold without heat is another!

[MD]

Zero is not possible as there is a significant inventory required to keep the pipeline network under adequate pressure. I do not know what that amount is, but if we near that level, whole sections of network will have to be shut down, and they will be very difficult to start up again.

[frankthetank]

I knew someone had talked about that possibility before, which makes sense that you need a lot of pressure in the line.

here is another link to a large amt of info @ EIA

[backstop]

frank tf -
Given the shortfall of GOM production, it looks like the stock could be around 2,400 by the beginning of Oct, depending on one weather factor -

This is the issue of the drought that's been obstructing coal-barges movement to powers stations. If the drought breaks in time then govt. has a better chance of ordering fuel-switching from gas to coal for some power production. (This could happen voluntarily if gas prices rise quickly enough).
Otherwise, 2,400 is way below the 1977 figure, and I'd guess gas usage has doubled since then ?
Praying for rain thus looks a respectable option . . .
regards,
Backstop

[MD]

I do not understand why the potential NG crisis this winter is not receiving more attention.
Either no crisis is imminent, or it is beyond correction?
Will we wait until people are freezing in the inner cities of New England this winter? I would have thought not, but when you view the current FEMA response.......

[frankthetank]

Here is the residential usage going back to the 70's LINK
Electric production from gas only goes back to 2001 LINK
Heres a link to the injections going way back...Injections
I think one needs to remember, when looking at usage (atleast in the winter) is that you MUST take weather (temps) into account. Some mild winters are going to require FAR less gas then cold winters.

[frankthetank]

I'm praying for a an upper level flow this winter coming right out of the EQuatorial PAcific!

[MD]

Great table, but what does that mean? Does it really come down to how cold a winter we have? Do we have a crisis given a normal winter, or not?

[backstop]

MD -
There's a third choice - that it is correctable but that would mean substantially raising gas prices now to cut extraction from stocks for power production, but the fools are too scared of further damage to Bush's ratings.
The illusion runs "Trouble defferred is trouble managed"
regards,
Backstop

[MD]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('backstop', 'M')D -There's a third choice - that it is correctable but that would mean substantially raising gas prices now to cut extraction from stocks for power production, but the fools are too scared of further damage to Bush's ratings.
The illusion runs "Trouble defferred is trouble managed"

[frankthetank]

Yeah...thats why i said those tables are difficult to understand, because you really have to take in the conditons of a particular month...i'll give you an example..

Dec 2000 withdrawl was 841 Mcf
Dec 2001 withdrawl was 588 Mcf

Was the difference?

Here is why




Thats why a cold winter is going to hit hard!

[PK]

Based on experts like Andrew Weissman (there's tons of stuff on natural gas demand and supply at energypulse.net), the minimum line pack would be in the range of 600-700bcf.

With a combination of dumb luck (cool summers and warm winters) for the past few years, America has avoided a natural gas crisis. However, if you check the storage statistics, a slightly warmer summer this year has easily used up a 200-250 bcf buffer. Under normal circumstances, America is unable to survive a cold winter. With Katrina, America might even have problems surviving a normal winter.

Therefore, I would like to urge every American to look into alternative ways of keeping warm before the need arises.

[markam]

supposedly in 2003 we were within just a few days of having the pressure drop to the point that pilot lights started going out. Luckily it was the end of winter and it warmed up.
Basically we have two choices. One, try to increase the amount gas coming in, either from canada or from LNG shipments. I seriously doubt that either of these could be increased for this heating season.

The second choice is obviously reduce consumption this winter. Somebody correct me if I am wrong, but I don't believe much gas is used in the winter for electricity generation. The government will not restrict gas to industry and really send our economy in a tailspin. This leaves consumer usage.
I am sure that we will get increasingly strong warnings to minimize gas usage. In addition, the price will spike, and after getting one bill, people will hopefully turn their thermostats way down.

If the government was smart they would require all utilities to mail a special warning showing consumers how much they spent last winter on gas and how much they will spend this winter if they don't change their usage patterns. Then, in really big font, tell people that at usage rates from last year, we will run out of gas and request that consumers do not put their thermostats above 65 degrees.

[frankthetank]

Markam...looks like in the past 4 years, we use about double the natgas in the summer...

[MD]

Some very helpful posts, thank you. It does look like a cold winter could be very bad. I do hope the warnings come early.

[lotrfan55345]

Maybe school can be cancelled this winter...

[mgibbons19]

Speaking of which. BP how do you like your "grate wall of fire" after a year? I'm not installing a fireplace or insert into this home. at least not yet. But I wouldn't mind increasing the efficiency of the fireplace somewhat. Esp if we have a cold winter.

[nocar]

Mcgibbons, I do not know if it applies to your case, but we have a very simple gadget that increases the efficiency of a fireplace, i.e. an open fireplace where we burn wood, logs and sticks of different size. That is the type that is mainly meant for looking at, as most of the heat goes right up the chimney.
The efficiency gadget is a hollow iron pipe, that is, the pipe is rectangular in cross section, about 7 by 15cm. (3 by 6 inches). This pipe is open in both ends, and bent in a U shape, with sharp corners. It sits permantently in the fireplace, both ends facing the room, over each other. In other words, the U shape is actually more like [ , but with the horisontal parts longer.

When you make a fire in the fireplace, the metal heats up, and the air inside the pipe on top gets hot and expands and blows into the room. Replacement air at room temperature gets sucked in at the bottom, from the room, gets heated and blows back into the room from the upper part. No moving parts, no fan needed, it is using just the natural expansion of hot air to heat the air in the room. Just a bent pipe in an open fireplace. Makes a big difference.
nocar

[mgibbons19]

I've thought about those too. This is a 40s house, so it'se a good fireplace, but I'm not ready to committ 2k to a good insert. Just get a little more out of it this winter.

I don't know how long we will be in this house. Although I do like it a lot.

[Dukat_Reloaded]

Waste Oil: Heat your home this winter with free oil.
A waste oil heater can heat your home for a fraction of the cost it would normally cost, so if you live in an area that has little wood, then try using waste oil for heating. I don't believe in peakoil, but I do believe in saving money and is a better investment than using wood pellets. link

This site has information on where to get the free waste oil and out to build one for only $36, and is like a pellet stove that you don't need to be constantly tending to the fire. Enjoy