[marko]

In my opinion, the two most critical pieces of information for assessing Katrina's likely impact on the economy are 1) the amount of damage at refineries and the time required to get them back in operation, and 2) the state of the natural gas supply from the Gulf.
I have been scouring the news and have yet to see any clear-cut assessment of either of these. Day after day it is just vague statements and spin. I find it hard to imagine that the various energy companies do not know where they stand in these areas several days after the weather cleared.
I strongly suspect that the media companies and the corporate sector in general are running scared and hoping to placate the public with soothing words and sideshows to try to keep the financial markets from going into a tailspin.

[frankthetank]

From the above link
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')fter Hurricane Georges in 1998, the refinery flooded and it took three months to resume operations. That lesson learned, Renfroe said the company built a five-mile long hurricane dike 20 feet above sea level, which helped "a great deal" during Katrina

[EnemyCombatant]

On Tuesday the mayor and governor said that NO would be back to normal in 3 weeks.
We know that they are spinning the damage to the refineries, oil platforms, and infrastructure.
Think about it. If there were catastrophic damage, would they tell us? Of course not, that wouldn't be wise. They are doing the right thing by not telling us and hopefully devising a plan to make a soft landing.
But who am I kidding. I am assuming we have competent leadership.

[ab0di]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('frankthetank', 'P')lenty of doom to go around in that last post. The part about grain and the ports is a biggie, considering harvesting time is very near.
Where will the farmers put the grains?

[backstop]

Marko -
Maybe a third item should be added as a distinct entity alongside the 2 critical factors you cite of refinery and gas-rig down time - that of undersea pipeline damage.
There was a report today of 38 rigs lost, of which some will have dragged their anchors and drifted before sinking. Plus another 10 mislayed (drifted) of which at least one drifted sixty miles, possibly dragging its anchors through god-knows-what pipe networks.
Given the modern industry's dislike of carrying reserve skilled labour, plus labour being lost/injured/detained by chaos on shore, it may be that even the inspection of pipelines will take more time than the corporations care to admit. If this is right, then their repair time actually remains an open question.

[Jaymax]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('frankthetank', 'I')'ve seen the photos of overhead from the refinery and flooding looked to be the worse of it, but how much can you really tell from a couple of sat shots..

[tokyo_to_motueka]

to get the oil/natgas infrastructure operational again, they need to move skilled labour and materials into the affected areas. they need electricity. but the roads and ports are a mess and even more critically, the labour has taken refuge God-knows-where and the rigs and ships needed to survey and fix the mess do not exist.

no good estimates on restoration of capacity because no one knows. but the operators must be dreading finding out.

just figuring out how they are going to move resources (labour and materials) into the needed places must be a nightmare scenario that has not been planned for.

[Jaymax]

One of the refineries reported that a whole quarter of their staff had turned up for work, like this was supposed to make us feel confident!

--J

[backstop]

If I'd been planning to invest serious funds in extended oil or gas operations in the GOM a week ago, in view of the scope for year-on-year intensification of hurricane activity, I guess I'd be having second thoughts by now.

And if I were an insurer of rigs, pipelines and operations ? My rates have to be rising to at least what the market will bear . .

Backstop

[Leanan]

I think they are low-balling the damage, giving the most positive spin possible. Why wouldn't they? If they say, "We just lost a big chunk of our production, probably for years" their stock price would plummet. They aren't going to tell the truth until it's absolutely necessary.

[Eli]

It's funny how natural gas production is such non story with winter coming and all. I guess once they send in divers to find the 50 platforms that were lost we will all be ok.

They will never tell the truth just spin harder and faster.

[tokyo_to_motueka]

i would have thought that potentially natgas is a bigger problem than gasoline, since the US doesn't have significant LNG facilities in place for imports to make up a shortfall.

[tokyo_to_motueka]

link
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')il Refineries Update Ticker Staff
123jump.com Last Update Sep 2 2005
Marathon Oil Corporation
The company has begun damage assessments of all facilities in areas affected by hurricane Katrina, and the Company is providing assistance to employees and neighboring communities impacted by the storm.
Activities are focused on the Company's Garyville, Louisiana, refinery, which has 245,000 barrels per day of crude oil processing capacity, as well as the Marathon-operated offshore oil and gas production platforms at South Pass (located 100 miles south of New Orleans) and Ewing Bank (located 130 miles south of New Orleans).
Gross production from these facilities of approximately 18,500 barrels of oil per day (bpd) and 25 million cubic feet of natural gas per day (mmcfd), remains shut-in as a result of the storm.
Marathon's total net production from these operated facilities, as well as other non-operated properties, is approximately 43,000 bpd and 110 mmcfd and this production remains shut-in as a result of the hurricane.

Murphy Oil Corporation
...No assessment has been made regarding pipelines nor can any estimated timeline be given at this time for restarting either facility or any of our other offshore Louisiana production. Some flooding occurred at the Company’s 125,000 barrel a day refinery in Meraux, Louisiana.
While repair to part of the plant’s electrical equipment and instrumentation, as well as a general cleanup of the facility, will be necessary, the refinery appears to have sustained no major damage from the storm. However, no estimate can be provided regarding timing of start-up.

ConocoPhillips
Several ConocoPhillips facilities were impacted by hurricane Katrina:
Alliance refinery remains shut down and access is limited due to flooding in the area. Most of offshore production remains shut in, however we are moving employees back to the platforms to begin assessing the situation.
In addition, many of employees have been affected by the devastation left by hurricane Katrina and the resultant flooding in Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama.

Chevron
Chevron today announced that it safely evacuated all of its offshore employees and contractors from facilities in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico prior to the approach of hurricane Katrina. Chevron continues to produce some oil and natural gas in the Western Gulf of Mexico region. Chevron’s New Orleans office is temporarily closed and employees and contractors who work there were advised to follow evacuation recommendations made by government agencies where they reside.

[Leanan]

Natural gas is definitely the biggest problem. We can bid up the price of oil and cause "demand destruction" in poorer countries. Natural gas is much harder to import. As it is, we were on a knife-edge. Many were expecting rolling blackouts this winter, simply because of the unusually hot summer. Katrina's just made it a hell of a lot worse.

[Leanan]

An article about Fourchon: Washington Post

[RealJoe]

Energycombatant,

My point was more of a question and one that I put into a separate post, not knowing it would be merged into the Katrina-Infrastructure thread. If I can condense my post into a point, then it is that a lack of skilled petroleum field workers and engineers is a very serious situation. One that is not likely to be remedied easily. I simply didn't know what the actual situation in the petroleum drilling and refining industries are and was seeking more factual data.

What's your point with the hostility?

[EnemyCombatant]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RealJoe', 'E')nergycombatant

[Starvid]

Damn that natural gas, you should never have started using it!
Luckily, there are alternative ways to heat your home. Some of them are impossible to do for a single person, like central heating from your local steam plant, but others work very well for a single house.
* Solar heating will take care of all your heating needs only if you live in a rather warm place. Still, it's is a good complement in colder areas.
* Better insulation can probably reduce your heating bill quite a lot. It is possible to build houses without any heating except human heat and heat from electrical appliances, even if you get -20 degrees Celsius in the winter.
* Heat pumps. These turn heat in the air, earth or lakes into heat for your home. Excellent!
* Wood stoves. Modern wood stoves are good, easy to use products. Only problem is that you have to live close to a forest ( and I figure it is not legal to pick dead branches from the ground in other peoples forests in the US?).
* Direct electrical heat. Completely useless if your electricity is generated by natural gas. But if it is nuclear or hydro you might give this one a shot, though I recomend the other alternatives more.

[tokyo_to_motueka]

Grim Outlook for 4 Gulf Coast Refineries
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he prospects for the other four refineries that shut down ahead of the storm are more dire. The plants, in hard-hit areas southeast of New Orleans and in Mississippi, can process some 880,000 barrels a day of crude, more than 5 percent of total U.S. capacity.
Chevron Corp.'s 325,000 barrel a day Pascagoula, Miss., facility and ConocoPhillips' 255,000 barrel a day Alliance refinery in Belle Chasse, La., have suffered "major damage," the Energy Department said.
Murphy Oil Corp.'s 120,000 barrel a day Meraux, La., refinery and the 183,000 barrel a day refinery at Chalmette, La., owned by ExxonMobil and Petroleos de Venezuela SA, suffered water damage, the DOE said. Murphy has said the flooding is a few feet deep.
"There's still some water in the plant," Murphy spokeswoman Mindy West said Sunday. Once the water is out, Murphy will have to clean out units and repair electrical equipment, West said. She wouldn't say when Murphy expects to complete those procedures.
The Chalmette refinery continues to assess damage, spokeswoman Nora Scheller said Sunday. There is no thought yet of a restart timetable, she said.

[fluffy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', '*') Direct electrical heat. Completely useless if your electricity is generated by natural gas. But if it is nuclear or hydro you might give this one a shot, though I recomend the other alternatives more.