PeakOil is You
Peak Oil already happened. We have the proof now.
Re: Peak Oil already happened. We have the proof now.
by Antimatter » Sat 03 Sep 2005, 02:38:05
Even Jean Laherrere, who is in my opinion the most thorough of the peakers and less hysterics prone than some others, reckons peak liquids isn't till 2015 if demand growth continues unconstrained, but will probably plateu to 2020 due to recession. I think a lot of people on this site would die if they had to wait that long for their prophecies to come true. The market is so tight at the moment because of the unexpectedly high demand growth in 2003 and 2004 especially which has eaten into spare production capacity, refining capacity etc.
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Re: Peak Oil already happened. We have the proof now.
by trespam » Sat 03 Sep 2005, 05:21:08
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Antimatter', 'E')ven Jean Laherrere, who is in my opinion the most thorough of the peakers and less hysterics prone than some others, reckons peak liquids isn't till 2015 if demand growth continues unconstrained, but will probably plateu to 2020 due to recession. I think a lot of people on this site would die if they had to wait that long for their prophecies to come true. The market is so tight at the moment because of the unexpectedly high demand growth in 2003 and 2004 especially which has eaten into spare production capacity, refining capacity etc.
I'm with you antimatter. Exactly. And I've been studying the work of a coal liquifaction dude in Texas (don't have the references readily available but will pass them on). He pulls together some reasonable estimate of it into energy production through 2035, adding it to what of course will be depleting conventional oil supplies sometime in the future, e.g. 2015 as you point out. The same sort of numbers are available from Campbell when you take into account liquids from gas production. There will be significantly more of these coming in the years ahead.
I believe in peak oil. Energy production will peak, and it will impact the standard of living of people throughout the world. And we will have shocks that take place, as we are now with Katrina.
But..and that's a big butt, I really get sick and tired of hearing the same old blather from many of the moderators on this site, particularly Jack's ideas to invade the world and find ways to make them die, and Montequest who is no Jack, is considering the environment as much as anything else (I'm probably not that far from Montequest's perspective on a lot of of issues), but it aint' gonna happen. Powerdown will not happen in the way that some in the community would like it. It won't. But Jack's scenarios also will not play out. Therefore I think there will be a lot of tired people on this site in five years. Powerdown is only going to happen as the pricing mechanism makes it necessary. And we're going to soil our beautiful little nest with global warming and other shit. It makes me very sad, but again--get used to it. We can try to fix things on the corners here and there, but in one sense, economics will be king: markets due clear, but it will be through demand destruction. And it will happen in fits and starts.
Here. Let's do a five year scenario. Over the next five years, I think that oil will close in on $100, maybe even above with the appropriate shock (I'm not sure whether Katrina is it). The real estate bubble will peak (peak real estate man, everyone run!!!!!! sky is falling sky is falling) and roll over. There will be a crisis of sorts due to US debts, defaults on real estate loans, etc etc. Inflation will rise, interest rates will rise, the unemployment rate could go as high as 10-20%, and the dollar will lose a lot of its value. The dollar will not crash. Whatever that means. The stock market will be lower than today. Houses much cheaper. Standard of living lower. And we'll excess capacity in oil production. Oil might be around $50 with all this demand destruction. The days of the SUV are over. The unwinding will start in 2006 or 2007. It will be no worse than the mess of the 70s.
So that's it over the next 5 years. Oh yeah, and some additional cat 5 hurricances screwing with the south east of the US. And many of the little islands around that region. That won't be pretty. Get used to it.
So that's my view through 2010. In 2010, we'll put together another 5 year plan. And I'll certainly be dropping in a regular basis to slap people around to ensure they don't get their undies all pulled up in a wedgie--or however it's spelled. Aaron, can you help me with that. Your the speller around here. (Compared to Jack, the produce of poetic waxing).
Here's the problem. That's 2005-2010 scenario is not good enough for the total doomers. Maybe they want a guarantee of more than the five years. Well, I hope these people don't drive cars, because the biggest risk in their lives between now and 2010 is their fucking automobile. It's pretty amusing when you think about it. Survivalists spending all this time planning and preparing, only to be sideswiped by a drunk driver while driving to the hardware store to buy a few more firearms.
So I guess the doomers want to plan, maybe beyond 2010 even. Jack apparently needs years and years and year to make his plans. He keeps talking about needing more time to plan. He loves the time for planning. Well, I'm not sure what his plans are, but I'll tell you what: I'm not hiring Jack to do any planning for me. He's taking forever. Perhaps people like Jack are doing FEMA planning? Might explain some of the problems. He seems to dislike poor people, and is a pretty slow planner, so no doubt the incompetence of the FEMA actions is just a lot of jacks. With some sort of planning dysfunction.
By the way, I was just watching the news. It's so interesting. News reporters are driving all over the fucking place in New Orleans but the national guard and ambulances are afraid to go in. The main problem we've got is a bunch of fucking pathetic fearful fools who are unable to overcome their fear of the inner city. Journalists all over the place. Walking the streets. Saying "no problem, send in help" and the guard and other folks on the outside of the city are afraid to go in. Plus that fucking idiot Bush, who apparently missed anything having to do with leadership in his many successful efforts at school (and the dry holes he drilled), as sent the national guard to take sniper fire in Iraq. A helicopter hears a shot and bales. Pathetic.
My bet: these dudes on the periphery of the city, the ones afraid to go in before today?: They're survivalists. Plain and simple, the're shitting their pants thinking they might have to go into the city.
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trespam - Tar Sands
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Re: Peak Oil already happened. We have the proof now.
by Jack » Sat 03 Sep 2005, 06:02:41
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('trespam', ' ')Jack apparently needs years and years and year to make his plans. He keeps talking about needing more time to plan. He loves the time for planning. Well, I'm not sure what his plans are, but I'll tell you what: I'm not hiring Jack to do any planning for me. He's taking forever. Perhaps people like Jack are doing FEMA planning? Might explain some of the problems. He seems to dislike poor people, and is a pretty slow planner, so no doubt the incompetence of the FEMA actions is just a lot of jacks. With some sort of planning dysfunction.
No, I like the time for accumulating wealth and enjoying the benefits of an energy abundant lifestyle. Also adding ammunition, of course.
No, I don't dislike poor people. In fact, I love the poor - it's cheaper to buy them. And they're grateful.
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Re: Peak Oil already happened. We have the proof now.
by Jack » Sat 03 Sep 2005, 06:07:25
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('trespam', 'S')o how many died from the criminals in New Orleans? And then how many died from the storm itself? And how many because they were poor living in a city hit by a category 4/5 hurricane.
Excellent questions. All rhetorical, obviously.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('trespam', 'H')ow many people died because of the human nature you are pointing out to me? How many? Ten? Twenty? I saw, primarily, pictures of people trying to help each other.
We'll never know the exact numbers. As for the pictures you refer to, if that's what you saw I urge you to visit an opthamologist.
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