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We need $90/barrel for people to wake up

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

We need $90/barrel for people to wake up

Postby Markos101 » Thu 01 Sep 2005, 06:06:20

I don't think anyone, particularly governments, are going to wake up regarding this issue until we have hit at least $90/barrel. Local petrol prices here in England have just been put up from 92.9p/litre to 99.9p/litre. If it gets much higher, I should expect the government to start cutting tax as it is currently making a hideous 76p/litre.

At $90/barrel we might expect £1.30/litre. At those prices, we should see transport becoming increasingly unviable and costs unloaded onto the consumer.

I say roll on $100/barrel. Let's calm ourselves down in the marketplace, start appreciating the smaller things but also let's get an indicator to get us off this stuff.

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Re: We need $90/barrel for people to wake up

Postby rogerhb » Thu 01 Sep 2005, 06:08:04

We could calm down the US by having them go metric, then suddenly all the gas prices would be lower! :-D
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Re: We need $90/barrel for people to wake up

Postby Permanently_Baffled » Thu 01 Sep 2005, 06:13:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Markos101', 'I') don't think anyone, particularly governments, are going to wake up regarding this issue until we have hit at least $90/barrel. Local petrol prices here in England have just been put up from 92.9p/litre to 99.9p/litre. If it gets much higher, I should expect the government to start cutting tax as it is currently making a hideous 76p/litre.

At $90/barrel we might expect £1.30/litre. At those prices, we should see transport becoming increasingly unviable and costs unloaded onto the consumer.

I say roll on $100/barrel. Let's calm ourselves down in the marketplace, start appreciating the smaller things but also let's get an indicator to get us off this stuff.

Mark


I think you figures might be off here mate. To get £1.26 litre petrol we need $150 oil.

$90 barrel oil will deliver circa £1 a litre (roughly).

Petrol here is still 89.9p. Where do you live Markos?

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Re: We need $90/barrel for people to wake up

Postby Markos101 » Thu 01 Sep 2005, 07:16:42

Up North it's 99.9p/litre, and might increase even more as US refineries start eying up European supplies and ramp up our own oil prices even more.

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Re: We need $90/barrel for people to wake up

Postby Permanently_Baffled » Thu 01 Sep 2005, 09:17:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Markos101', 'U')p North it's 99.9p/litre, and might increase even more as US refineries start eying up European supplies and ramp up our own oil prices even more.

Mark


I have just read the Times article, you are right , the US is now bidding up Gasoline supplies in Europe.

Bastard Yanks! :-x

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Re: We need $90/barrel for people to wake up

Postby Kez » Thu 01 Sep 2005, 13:02:09

In the U.S., for the people who use most of the oil anyways,

time = money.

Say for instance that gas was $5.00 a gallon. A family could continue to use 2 cars, or start to carpool. If I myself dropped my wife off at work, she would save a whole $5.00 day, and I would lose about 45 minutes.

So is saving 45 minutes every day worth $5.00 to me? Oh yes, especially because I hate driving and all that time will be spent in a car. My car is already paid for so the expenses are low already. Selling it for peanuts and then having to manage one car for two people would be a huge pain for me, and not worth the savings. Yes I'm spoiled, I admit it.

Now we aren't rich, but I'm sure that for those who's time is worth even more, they aren't going to care much at all until the price is around $10.00 for a gallon or even more. They will rationalize it as time = money, and others will also add in that less hassle in carpooling and managing one car is worth the extra cost.

So in short, I don't think $100 or even $150 a barrel will keep most people from changing their driving habits. Changing other things yes, but they'll still have 2 or 3 cars.
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Re: We need $90/barrel for people to wake up

Postby cube » Thu 01 Sep 2005, 20:33:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Markos101', 'I') don't think anyone, particularly governments, are going to wake up regarding this issue until we have hit at least $90/barrel. .....
At the rate things are going we'll have $90/barrel oil by Februrary.

That's only 5 months away. What's the rush? :-D
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Re: We need $90/barrel for people to wake up

Postby Dukat_Reloaded » Fri 02 Sep 2005, 00:59:46

I do not think $90 a barrel will wake people up. Everyone thought, if oil reached $50 the world would blow up. $50 public says OMFG, $70 OMFG and $90 will be the same OMFG $90. It won't change anything, and oil companies are loving this, they are making trillions.
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Re: We need $90/barrel for people to wake up

Postby joewp » Fri 02 Sep 2005, 02:11:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dukat', 'I') do not think $90 a barrel will wake people up. Everyone thought, if oil reached $50 the world would blow up. $50 public says OMFG, $70 OMFG and $90 will be the same OMFG $90. It won't change anything, and oil companies are loving this, they are making trillions.


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Re: We need $90/barrel for people to wake up

Postby Battle_Scarred_Galactico » Fri 02 Sep 2005, 05:47:03

People will still pay it (and are), it needs to be at least double probably more.

No ones' coming "off" oil unless there is a complete change in the system. Not going to happen under current government.

"Keep buying shit, it's all ok!"
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Re: We need $90/barrel for people to wake up

Postby Ironmike » Fri 02 Sep 2005, 06:23:16

In the U.S. currently, gasoline is priced as if oil were priced at $100 per barrel thanks to Katrina. Prior to this catastrophe, gasoline was priced at slightly less than the prevailing price of oil.
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Re: We need $90/barrel for people to wake up

Postby Cool Hand Linc » Fri 02 Sep 2005, 06:35:08

If the price stays up. People here will change their habits. Its happening here right now. People are looking to dump their SUV's for something less thristy.

In the are I live and work. Some people drive 50 miles or more and fuel is cutting into the pocket book to the tune or 25% of income.

One lady who drives from Mushogee to North Tulsa (about 55 miles) says she figures she can take a pay cut and come out ahead. I have thought this time would come. If prices drop. She may forget for awhile.

I actually hope the prices stay up. The economy and people will begin the long needed change.
Peace out!

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Re: We need $90/barrel for people to wake up

Postby CARVER » Fri 02 Sep 2005, 08:42:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cool Hand Linc', '.').. People are looking to dump their SUV's for something less thristy. ...


I'm wondering how many people have been buying new big fat SUV's the last couple of days. I would think most people would now say: let's get something smaller, more efficient.

With these prices I would think those car companies that only make those gas guzzlers must be really crapping their pants right now. Sadly their workers will be the first to feel the pain.
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Re: We need $90/barrel for people to wake up

Postby jimmydean » Fri 02 Sep 2005, 11:51:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cool Hand Linc', 'I')f the price stays up. People here will change their habits. Its happening here right now. People are looking to dump their SUV's for something less thristy.

In the are I live and work. Some people drive 50 miles or more and fuel is cutting into the pocket book to the tune or 25% of income.

One lady who drives from Mushogee to North Tulsa (about 55 miles) says she figures she can take a pay cut and come out ahead. I have thought this time would come. If prices drop. She may forget for awhile.

I actually hope the prices stay up. The economy and people will begin the long needed change.


North america conservation is about to start.

Had a chat with a colleague yesterday and asked him at what price gas would be for him to consider alternative methods of travel - he flatly told me $1.50/liter CAD and the car is parked.

We are very very close to the pump pain threshold whereby we will have conservation.
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Re: We need $90/barrel for people to wake up

Postby falser » Fri 02 Sep 2005, 12:08:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jimmydean', 'H')ad a chat with a colleague yesterday and asked him at what price gas would be for him to consider alternative methods of travel - he flatly told me $1.50/liter CAD and the car is parked.


That's what he said, not what he will do. Most people when asked such a question will spit out some number that seems expensive at the time, but really isn't enough to change their lifestyle. By the time $1.50/L is long gone I bet he'll still be driving that car. The average person could not fathom carrying groceries back to their home, let alone can walk to a store and back in any decent amount of time.
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Re: We need $90/barrel for people to wake up

Postby mommy22 » Fri 02 Sep 2005, 13:54:42

Kez's post about spending more time getting somewhere, or spending the money in gas to get there quicker is very true. When I lived in the city, dependant on public transport, I walked virtually everywhere. Here in a suberb of Cleveland, OH, I find myself driving places that I would have easily walked in the city. Or should I say, I DID drive to those places. My daughter's bike and my feet have been utilized a lot more the last few weeks. My tank is full at the moment, after paying $3.09.9 yesterday.
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Re: We need $90/barrel for people to wake up

Postby Snowrunner » Fri 02 Sep 2005, 14:22:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mommy22', 'K')ez's post about spending more time getting somewhere, or spending the money in gas to get there quicker is very true. When I lived in the city, dependant on public transport, I walked virtually everywhere. Here in a suberb of Cleveland, OH, I find myself driving places that I would have easily walked in the city. Or should I say, I DID drive to those places. My daughter's bike and my feet have been utilized a lot more the last few weeks. My tank is full at the moment, after paying $3.09.9 yesterday.


When I still lived in Toronto (which has decent public transit) I had a lot of people asking me over and over again if I could just "come by and pick them up".

Besides the fact that I hate driving in the city, most of those people either lived right next to a streetcar stop, bus stop or subway stop and STILL wanted me to spent an hour driving across town.

A Collegues idea for a Saturday night of "going out" was to "drive around downtown" instead of just walking.

Baffels my mind, really, it does.
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Re: We need $90/barrel for people to wake up

Postby tomazh » Sun 04 Sep 2005, 20:22:40

Here in the Czech republic we have a quite good public transportation.
Average salary is around USD750/EUR600 a month, with most people
earning around 500EUR/mo, top 15-20%, excluding the very rich, are on around 800-2000EUR/mo.
Gasoline prices are at around EUR1,10/liter or some US$5.20/gallon.
Yet automobilism is at an all-time high, with 1,8 persons per one registered car in Prague (comparing to some 2,1 in Western European cities).
While driving to a large shopping mall at the outskirts of the city to do the shopping at weekends was almost unheard of 10 years ago, now it is a common practice among many.
People here getting used to more comfortable ways of living very quickly, most think the days with lines of people in front of the stores to get anything beyond basic necessities are a matter of history. They expect to reach the Western European standard of living sometime in the future, the question for most being whether that will happen in maybe a decade or 25 years.
In a way, people are more materialistic here than in the West, where the strata of the society with post-materialistic values is larger. Many here want to make up for all those years of consumption they had missed.
Therefore, the post Peak Oil reality will be a harsh awakening for those believing free-market oil-based ever-growing economy is the right way to go(as opposed to real socialism).
On the other hand, back in the Eastern-bloc days, people developed survival strategies and some still remember what the ommnipresent lack of everything is like. That may be of use.
The dream of reaching Western European standard of living may then also come true, but with Western Europe's economy shrinking, not ours rising:-)
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