[EnemyCombatant]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')[This is even before the hurricane has done any significant damage to oil infrastructure. This loss is due only to evacuations. Whatever damage is done by the storm itself may, in some cases, take a year or longer to repair. God knows how many billions that will cost or whether repair crews will even be able to get to key locations. By that time the US economy will have imploded.

I'm going out on a short, sturdy limb here. Oil prices will break the $80 mark within a week. That could turn out to have been an understatement.

Katrina's landfall on August 29, 2005 may well be remembered as the beginning of the collapse of the American Empire. It could also be remembered by future generations as the day that Mother Earth declared full-scale war on the human race. - MCR]

-- Michael Ruppert

[JoeW]

Keeping things in perspective, we have lost refinery capacity, which reduces the demand for crude. Peak oil is not about refinery capacity. It is two entirely separate issues. Had production been damaged and not refining capacity, we would have seen a jump in crude prices. The market still hasn't figured out exactly what the simultaneous loss of refineries and production means for the price of crude.

[Free]

No. It is a temporary crisis that will do much damage to PO-awareness once it is resolved and over and done with. People will be happy to return to their slumber, more sound than ever before.

Because now there is a "real" reason why oil and gas prizes are high. Before people where starting to asking questions, when oil prizes reached all time record highs and there was no tangible reason in sight.

Now it will be "yeah the experts were right it was the hurricuns, the terrorists" etc. etc.

[Lucas]

YOu hit the nail dead on the head, Free. Unless the peak is seriously here, then prices will go back down somewhat once the damage is repaired, thereby crying wolf. (Tangent: It's funny how global warming probably created Katrina and how it destroyed oil rigs in return...)

[DigitalCubano]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JoeW', 'K')eeping things in perspective, we have lost refinery capacity...

[Heineken]

I agree with the tenor of the other comments. People will view this event as an opportunity to get back to the way things were, not to make the huge changes and sacrifices necessary to avoid a repeat performance . . .

[wisegoat]

yeah but isn't the world already tight on supplies? I'm just thinking that the shortfall of 1.3 Mb/d could wedge the supply/demand gap open far enough that we'll never recover from it.

They're opening the SPR.. fine for now, but we might need this later. I was checking the figures on this oil bank and apparently only some 240mb are the light sweet crude anyways. That means we have about 184 days until it's dry, which is about half a year... I'm highly doubting these rigs will be back in full swing by then, and even if they were... WHERE ARE THE WORKERS GONNA LIVE?!

Forget about it, pack ur bags, it's time to move somewhere cozy and abundant with good soil and roaming deer.. ah if only those places still existed.. i hate humanity

[Leanan]

I wonder if our limited refinery capacity is part of peak oil, though. If oil was really a growth industry, you'd think they'd be building more refineries. If not here, elsewhere.

I also wonder if Katrina has rendered Deffeyes' prediction incorrect. If the rumors are true, and Katrina has reduced Gulf oil production for years to come, the world may never reach the production level we hit last fall. If that's the case, peak oil was October 2004.

[Heineken]

A spooky and possibly accurate thought, Leanan. My guess is that this is a large ripple in the general hogwash. I believe that we're plateauing, not peaking, and that the plateau will last an unknowable-except-in-retrospect number of years, after which the palpable decline sets in.

[sjn]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Leanan', 'I') wonder if our limited refinery capacity is part of peak oil, though. If oil was really a growth industry, you'd think they'd be building more refineries. If not here, elsewhere.

I also wonder if Katrina has rendered Deffeyes' prediction incorrect. If the rumors are true, and Katrina has reduced Gulf oil production for years to come, the world may never reach the production level we hit last fall. If that's the case, peak oil was October 2004.

[bbadwolf]

Hi all, I got 2 cents.

We aren't going to reach peak! There is no way that we could have ever gotten all our ducks in a row regardless. Iraq would be offline or terrorists would blow something up or refinery fires would be at fault, lack of investment, or a hurricane. We're not organized enough to reach geological peak. So the infidels will always have a scapegoat. Turns out that it will be a storm instead of terrorists (or refinery capacity, underinvestment, whatever). "Economism" is a religion and fundies aren't going to change their minds whether this is the 'start' or not. I'm personally not sure, but I'm pretty friggin' scared!

-bbad

[Dukat_Reloaded]

I also aggree, this is not the trigger that will set off peakoil awareness or if people did become aware, they will shrug it off as being false when the price declines from it's highs and things return to normal. Right now the world is using less oil because all the cars are damaged and power has been cut of for an estimated 6 weeks (no consumers using oil). Asia's economey now has been screwed by the high oil prices so demand from them will decline for some bit until they get back on their feet (not china thou). I do believe there is a bouble in the market, a quite large one, but if it does pop, I can't see it going below $50. From $50, it will continute to rise as peakoil sets in and no producers can increase supply.

[MicroHydro]

The refineries will be back online very quickly, within weeks at most. The issue is crude.

Add up the numbers. The new US energy bill says add 300 million more barrels to the US SPR. China is building their storage tanks to fill their SPR, size unknown but expected to be large. India wants to build a large SPR. Now Ivan resulted in 44 million barrels of lost crude production. Katrina is at least twice as bad, say a minimum of 100 million barrels of gulf production will be lost.

Now while the GOM is offline the US will borrow from the US SPR, but that oil will have to be replaced, so it can be considered to be negative oil production to be applied at a future date. A good guess would be that worldwide SPR hoarding will result in an increased world demand of at least 1 million bpd for the next three years. As far as consumers are concerned, the available oil production plateau has just dropped to a lower level. Wealthy private parties will begin hoarding as well as nations. And by 2008, the world will be decidedly post peak with accelerating depletion. Peak available liquids might have been 26 August 2005, three months ahead of Deffreys' schedule.

It has begun.

[Macsporan]

None shall know the day or the hour...

[Scalar]

UNLESS, the scnenario follows the movie "Oil Storm", and so far it's pretty erie how it's happened just months after the movie aired, what are the odds, that it would take out the rigs and Port Fourchon so close to Labor Day as in the movie? They must be ASTRONOMICAL! Why hasn't anyone vote in the poll? [B]

[EnemyCombatant]

What do you think of NAESARA?

[Scalar]

I think it's way way way over due!

[Novus]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Scalar', 'U')NLESS, the scnenario follows the movie "Oil Storm", and so far it's pretty erie how it's happened just months after the movie aired, what are the odds, that it would take out the rigs and Port Fourchon so close to Labor Day as in the movie? They must be ASTRONOMICAL! Why hasn't anyone vote in the poll? [B]

[I_Like_Plants]

Wow that NESARA sounds like a great idea! It will only work if the Israelis are kept out of our government though, just a warning.