[cornholio]

In the last week I discovered the topic "Peak Oil" and have lost a fair amount of sleep... compulsively reading boards, articles and a book. While I am not certain about any specifics just being aware of the topic has challenged many assumptions that were central to my life planning...

Since reading about peak oil I am no longer certain that ...
1) I have a lifetime to build wealth
2) that stocks will, over the long term, continue to grow
3) that realestate is a a good investment in the current market
4) that interest from stocks will always be higher than current loan rates
5) that at my age I should invest heavily in more aggressive stocks
6) that gold is not a good investment
7) that I should maximize my retirement savings held from my paycheck
8 that I will be able to fly anywhere easily after I retire
9) that I would never own a gun

In short, my whole worldview has been challenged. In sharing this concern with others I am met with calm reassurance that the challenge of peak oil will not be seen in "our lifetime." It is difficult for people to believe that a problem of this magnitude could be brewing with no public discussion or awareness... The very fact that there is no heated discussion on CNN suggests (to most) that such a wild fear falls into the realm of conspiracy- theory and rumor.

I am not sure how to incorporate this information. Often with such conflicting data I tend to say "the truth must be somewhere between the two extremes"... that is somewhere between doomsday and "there is no problem." But in considering that oil is a finite resource with no viable long term replacements I cannot rule out doomsday...

At the least I am changing my investment strategy immediately... 100% ggressive stocks do not suite my outlook, even at my young age. Gold, Large Cap (value), foreign investments and cash holdings make sense. Avoiding debt makes sense. I am less sure about whether withholding pay for retirement savings (tax-free) is a good deal and might instead use the money to pay off debt quickly. That choice depends on the future economy (inflation or deflation, stagflation) and how much the future dollar is worth, and cannot be known...

This new financial strategy will burn me if the markets continue to rise for 30 years without major setbacks or if over 20 years stock earnings are consistantly higher than my 6.7% morgage payment (meaning a stock investment would have paid more than paying off my morgage).

A main obstacle to acceptance of the concept of peak oil is that it challenges so many assumptions that everybody takes for granted... It may be an illusion, but the emotional cost of destroying that illusion is high. For that reason people casually presented with the topic of peak oil will reject it... Emotionally because it challenges to much, and intellectually because the experts whose advice they accept are not worried.

[killJOY]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')CORNHOLIO"

[cornholio]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('killJOY', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')CORNHOLIO"

[seldom_seen]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cornholio', 'A') main obstacle to acceptance of the concept of peak oil is that it challenges so many assumptions that everybody takes for granted... It may be an illusion, but the emotional cost of destroying that illusion is high. For that reason people casually presented with the topic of peak oil will reject it... Emotionally because it challenges to much, and intellectually because the experts whose advice they accept are not worried.

[cornholio]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seldom_seen', '
')You seem to be interested in the market effects/investment ramifications of oil depletion. You might want to read Stephen Leeb's "The Oil Factor," if you haven't already. It covers the issue from an investment standpoint. I found it a pretty interesting read.

[jimmydean]

Welcome to the club.

The initial PO realization is a bit harsh to say the least. We are taught essentially that "there is always more" and we live accordingly. This forum is a breath of fresh air for the few of us that dare to criticize the media, government and average joe's view of the world.

[falser]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cornholio', 'I') will look for it, thanks seldom_seen.... Im fairly fresh out of school my I haven't accumulated much net worth so I have little to lose, but I do not want to waste all my future work/income/savings building resources like IRA's and stocks that might not benefit me when I need them. The idea that a US dollar does not have intrinsic, stable value and that the stock market might not always rise is a shock. The idea that world and even the US could face stagflation, loss of currency value and even hunger in the next decades is revolutionary.

[ONeil]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cornholio', 'I')n the last week I discovered the topic "Peak Oil" and have lost a fair amount of sleep...

[cornholio]

In some ways this is like joining a cult ... Accepting fringe ideas that put you at odds with most of the country.... I guess the thing to ask is WHY I would believe such a unique idea??? I think it's because....

1) I was reading about conspiracy theories anyway (believing there must be more than is openly admitted behind the reasoning for the war in Iraq)... I am not gullible, but that makes me more "open minded" than most.
2) I have a degree in Biology, making natural concepts like "peak carrying capacity" of environments very logical, and the link between oil use and the population explosion unavoidable.
3) I dont have a problem seeing humans as animals (the naked ape), still vulnerable to "corrections" when populations exceed the resources available.
4) I am a "glass half empty" kind of guy, at heart ...
5) I can grasp the fact that as our consumption of oil is driving a most unique growth period in history, loss of cheap oil in unlimited supply (now taken for granted) would uproot assumptions about what that economy will do for investors over the next decades.
6) I can see how my assumptions about the future (flying cars, robots, rockets and rayguns) depend on an economy of scale and productivity driven by cheap oil.
7) I know how little actual work/sweat I do in a day for a good living, and know that I am living beyond my own ability (without the power of oil)
I am not an economist, but the concept of the magnitude of the debt this country carries against its currency (not backed by gold anymore) makes it possible to imagine catastrophic correction...
9) I am paranoid enough to think that those who could know about this and warn the public have no vested interest in doing so.... (the saudis need stable oil dependant consumption, the administration needs confident consumers investing their income in stocks and borrowing to power growth in the economy, the administration has no reason to want to be the bearer of bad news (look what happened to Carter), the financial market has no reason to counsel consumers against investing heavily in retirement funds even if there were larger risks in the long run than commonly know...
10) I like the idea of downsizing anyway : )

Some of this might explain why I am convinced while my family and co-workers are skeptical to say the least...

[EdF]

Welcome aboard, Cornholio (whatta name).

The last thing I wanted to hear about at age 53, after my ex cleaned my clocks in terms of assets (and to some extent future income) was that it looked like I had to return to my old hippie back to the land ideals (I did work farms a bit back in my 20's). On the other hand I guess it salved my pain over no retirement resources and so on.

In some ways, it seems like presenting good challenges. We're gardening, learning food preservation, developing various skills for just in case. If it turns out to be a soft landing, well, nothing much lost aside from the effort - which has its own rewards. And who knows, even if a soft landing happens, such efforts may lead to a more wholesome relationship to the earth.

I was never as financially serious as you appear to be - especially at such a tender age. But what can I say? In the summer of 1970, I was tripping down Commonwealth Ave in Boston, and was struck by how it all seemed like a cartoon. That feeling hasn't left me since - the cartoon just seems to get to be a darker one as time passes.

Do the best you can by your lights and be loose about the results of your efforts.

- Ed

[cornholio]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EdF', '
')The last thing I wanted to hear about at age 53...was that it looked like I had to return to my old hippie back to the land ideals. In the summer of 1970, I was tripping down Commonwealth Ave in Boston, and was struck by how it all seemed like a cartoon.
- Ed

[EdF]

Yeah, I get your points. I didn't get my money-making credentials (MS in computer engineering) until I was 32, so I can relate to wanting to get caught up.

I won't be changing my name to Moonbeam, regardless. It's been a "long strange trip" watching the last 35 years unfold - as one of them hippie bands once sang. Not perzactly as expected.

Still, the issues of how civilization and mankind relate to the environment are at the front of looking towards any kind of future for our children and theirs. And a lot of those old hippie orientations weren't too far off - we were and are a lot more hard-headed and pragmatic than we've often been painted.

- Ed

[cornholio]

ED, Yep... Oh, I have all the Grateful Dead cd's, and like tie-die t-shirts and sandals... I could have been a hippie : )

I won't be changing my name to Moonbeam, but after googling "Cornholio" I think I'll change my posting name to "Chicken Little." Its a little more topical, mature, and conservative for this boards (which is more literate and polite than any I have seen... great group).

[cornholio]

Ok, so I can't change my posting name... so be it... I am the great Cornholio.

[Chaparral]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cornholio', 'I')n the last week I discovered the topic "Peak Oil" and have lost a fair amount of sleep... compulsively reading boards, articles and a book. While I am not certain about any specifics just being aware of the topic has challenged many assumptions that were central to my life planning...

A main obstacle to acceptance of the concept of peak oil is that it challenges so many assumptions that everybody takes for granted... It may be an illusion, but the emotional cost of destroying that illusion is high. For that reason people casually presented with the topic of peak oil will reject it... Emotionally because it challenges to much, and intellectually because the experts whose advice they accept are not worried.

[cornholio]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Chaparral', '
')Certain things are bulletproof investments. First and foremost is a good working knowledge of meeting as much of you and yours' nutritional needs from biointensive gardening. .

[born2respawn]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cornholio', 'J')ust my thinking now. I still plan a garden, but I just cant concieve of needing to provide all my own calories by my own hand

[DesertBear2]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cornholio', ' ') Gold, Large Cap (value), foreign investments and cash holdings make sense. Avoiding debt makes sense. I am less sure about whether withholding pay for retirement savings (tax-free) is a good deal and might instead use the money to pay off debt quickly.

[ozkrenske]

Cornholio,

I have discovered that people won't listen unless you are actually making money out of this Peak Oil crap. Apparently if you know ssomething that others don't you should surely be making money.

And lo, My October and November oil contracts purchased at 47 dollars. People are now annoyed about me being right for 2 years and them not listening.

Others have paid lip service, or just listened dismissively. But My coming into work looking up the oil price and going "yahoo another thousand dollars" seems to be doing the trick.

I have tried logic and even asked them to fit themselves into hypotheticals nothing works like greed.

[deconstructionist]

people who live in the desert can't count on there always being food at the grocery store. hell... people everywhere can't count on that anymore.