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the end of arrogance

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

the end of arrogance

Postby aldente » Tue 26 Apr 2005, 00:52:23

When looking around and focusing on the "un-failable and essentially arrogant attitude" that a lot of our co-humans wonder around in this world, it seems that there are positive side effects to PO. Namely taking a lot of them down their high horse backs.

A couple of days ago a poster from Queensland, Australia posted the following, and I fully agree:

As to your thoughts about young middle class americans (and probably most westerners) seeing depression as the end of society/civilization, I think you are actually on target. For much of the west true lack of wealth has not occurred amongst the middle and higher classes for 30+ years. There are poor people but the middle class has for 30 years and even more so in the last 10-15 has had almost no problem buying a lot of consumerist 'stuff'. A close friend who is younger than myself honestly has no idea what want is. Want a horse Dad purchases a horse stud and the girls get a bunch of em. Turn 17 and new sporty car is sitting in the 6 car garage. Need new computer, $3000 gets paid up. Go home to visit for a weekend and drive back with several thousand dollars of designer clothes of which less than half is ever worn. The thought that no safety net may exist to hold them up with just a phone call is not even understood. To these people long term loss of wealth is a disaster. The inability to buy a new Gizmo is horrible, the possible requirement to lose cable is really bad and being forced to wear warm clothing indoors in winter is hard to fathom.
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Postby seldom_seen » Tue 26 Apr 2005, 01:36:51

I flipped on the Television this evening and watched a little bit of the NBC show "Las Vegas." Part of the show included one of the "super smart, super good looking" casino babes who had her cousin come visit. He was Amish. Naturally, the cast of Las Vegas is smart, good looking, sophisticated and intelligent.

The Amish guy, of course, was portrayed as some ignorant, backward country yokel who couldn't even zip up his pants.

Now let's look at the reality of the situation.

From what I've read, Las Vegas is literally out of water. The explosive growth of that region will be met by an equally explosive implosion as the economy can no longer generate excess wealth (energy) to afford a massive gambling and entertainment culture. The combination of oil and water depletion will literally strangle that city. A mirage in the desert.

Meanwhile the Amish, while tending to their horses or plowing the fields for another season, will obviously be having the last laugh.

peak oil will be a humbling experience for many.
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Re: the end of arrogance

Postby hull3551 » Tue 26 Apr 2005, 01:58:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('albente', '.')..the thought that no safety net may exist to hold them up with just a phone call is not even understood. To these people long term loss of wealth is a disaster. The inability to buy a new Gizmo is horrible, the possible requirement to lose cable is really bad and being forced to wear warm clothing indoors in winter is hard to fathom.


Although many consumer goods are much more affordable, I think the next few generations are in for an interesting awakening. All the ‘toys’ the middle/upper-middle class kids gain from dual-working parents. Writing this, the suburban kids come to mind where the family is using the home-equity lines of credit as a bottomless cash supply. All the newest clothes, cars, cell phones, ....

Fast-forward twenty or thirty years when you see a tremendous oversupply of educated workers with fewer and fewer professional jobs – we can see this happening now. Add peak oil to the equation coupled with stagflation (my assessment) and I think you’ll have an interesting scenario.

We used to say ‘shirt sleeves to shirt sleeves in three generations.’
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Postby RiverRat » Tue 26 Apr 2005, 14:36:09

My philosophy is to live BELOW your means. I often get ridiculed for this mindset. I’ve been called a tight-a**, cheap skate and the likes.

I’ve only once owned a new car (which I drove for 11 years and put over 270,000 miles on). I have no credit card debt. I don’t rape the equity in my home (built with ‘sweat equity). I save as much as economically feasible. I never buy retail and limit discretionary spending (as much as the wife allows).

I was a real estate appraiser for a few years before I took a desk job in the same field. Let me tell you … the home as an ATM machine… is a scary reality.

Need a new bass boat … refi
Need to go to Disney World … refi
Need a 52 in plasma TV … refi

It never ends

I’ve seen property worth as much as the 2 cars, ATV and Bass Boat sitting outside. There are some really screwed up people with their priorities out of whack.

The 0.4 % US saving rate is criminal and an abomination of our ‘fast food – instant gratification’ society. In our never ending quest for consumption, we have managed to leverage our futures to the whims of institutional ‘loan sharks’.

The scary thing is … with consumer spending making up 2/3 of the US economy … it becomes necessary and is legitimized all the way up the ladder.
If ...'If's' and 'But's' ... were Candy and Nuts ... we would all be happy and fat !
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Postby heyhoser » Tue 26 Apr 2005, 15:02:46

I don't know anyone personally in my age group who is arrogant when it comes to their lifestyle. Out of high school, out of college, we're dying here, no money, no jobs (I had to move 300 miles from my hometown to find one in my field), harrased by the 'system' in so many ways.
It friggin' blows.

So, anyway, not all Americans are rich a-holes, not even most of 'em.
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Postby NevadaGhosts » Wed 27 Apr 2005, 16:07:22

I see the exact opposite. Many American college students are spoiled, arrogant little brats, who have mommy and daddy pay for everything. They drive around in their $30,000 SUV's. Blab all day on their cell phones during peak time. Dress smartly. Have expensive laptop computers. Eat out all the time. All paid for by mommy and daddy. Then after they graduate, many cannot find jobs, so 60% of all college graduates move back in with mommy and daddy to leech more money so they can maintain their 'lifestyle'.
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Re: the end of arrogance

Postby spudbuddy » Fri 26 Aug 2005, 14:05:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') see the exact opposite. Many American college students are spoiled, arrogant little brats, who have mommy and daddy pay for everything. They drive around in their $30,000 SUV's. Blab all day on their cell phones during peak time. Dress smartly. Have expensive laptop computers. Eat out all the time. All paid for by mommy and daddy. Then after they graduate, many cannot find jobs, so 60% of all college graduates move back in with mommy and daddy to leech more money so they can maintain their 'lifestyle'


wow.
College kids imitating corporate executives...
(When I was in college, they were the enemy...the absolute apogee of totally uncool.)
Historically-

When we kissed our manufacturing base and all our basic blue collar work goodbye...higher education took off.
(everyone wants that 6-figure salary...absolutely has to have it.)
Every schoolkid is lectured on this:

Society marms in NYC fight like demons to get little junior or juniorette into just the right pre-school. That's right.
The kid's still in diapers...but God forbid they drop behind (except for loads of the stinky stuff.)
And it never lets up.
So all those kidlets were supposed to grow up and acquire their high pay desk job sitting on the phone directing Chinese contractors to build and send us more of that cheap junk.
What really happened was that blue collar turned service industry.
"Hi! Want fries with that?" :)
-smileys are good for something after all.

In 1960, a good auto worker made as much as a college professor.
In America...a home has become what a savings account used to be.
Beyond that...blue collar overtime paid for everything else.
I would say that no doubt all those 2nd and 3rd McJobs people are taking on...are trying to do the same thing.
Trouble is...the purchasing power has shrunk to nothing.

My son is in third year university.
I hear the stories.
The first question out of a girl's mouth (sounds kinda traditional in a way)
-something about matrimonial prospects.......
But the intent is absolutely double income. So much for independence.
Buying power. Consumer activities. Acqusition replaces inquisitveness.
We taught them well, I guess.

What really amazes me...is that many of the folks that are actually reasonably well off...are stretched thin just like everybody else.
God forbid that they actually come down to an affordable lifestyle, when they can be stylin' like basketball stars.

All that education going on out there....
Will the garbage collector show up one day with a PHD in waste management? (a doctorate that cost him 150k?)

The last generation that could actually work their way through college were the tweeners....too young for WW2 and just preceding the boomers...they were all out in the work force by the late 50's.

Education is all about money now...the cost of it, and the projected earnings.
I work in a university library.
I see the absolute fear and loathing, the horror and mistrust on a student's face when they look at a nice big thick fat book, and wonder if what's between its covers = income or not (value added.)

I remember a trend back in the 80's:
A lot of smart kids with smart parents chose to combine a 3-year degree (in whatever) with a 2-year certificate in some hard line skilled techinical skill. That was their fallback when the degree didn't lead to anything...and often paid for postgrad when an MA was necessary.
Few seem to go that route now.
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Re: the end of arrogance

Postby EdF » Fri 26 Aug 2005, 14:17:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('spudbuddy', '.')..
The last generation that could actually work their way through college were the tweeners....too young for WW2 and just preceding the boomers...they were all out in the work force by the late 50's.
...


Over-generalization. I was born in 51 and worked my way through both college and grad school.

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Re: the end of arrogance

Postby GoIllini » Fri 26 Aug 2005, 19:06:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('spudbuddy', 'T')he last generation that could actually work their way through college were the tweeners....too young for WW2 and just preceding the boomers...they were all out in the work force by the late 50's.


I dunno. If I had to pay the same amount (wage-adjusted) for college that my parents did, I'd be able to pay (and likely be paying) for every nickel of college.

My Dad went through college without any help from his parents and graduated with a good amount of money in a savings account. He was definately in the baby boom (graduated college in '75).

I think that one of the problems these days is that school just costs so much more than it did in the '60s and '70s. One of my professors talked about going to Purdue from out of state and paying $400/semester in tuition. My Dad paid a few hundred dollars a semester back in the '70s, and paid a heckuvalot more for groceries and rent than he did for school. Today, I'm paying close to $4500/semester for in-state tuition.

Can anyone working a $9/hour job pay $4500/semester for tuition? I think I could make it through on my own earning $9/hour 20 hours/week in school and 50 hours/week (plus overtime) in summer if tuition were still around $1000 or maybe $1500 per semester, but things are awfully expensive.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') see the exact opposite. Many American college students are spoiled, arrogant little brats, who have mommy and daddy pay for everything. They drive around in their $30,000 SUV's. Blab all day on their cell phones during peak time. Dress smartly. Have expensive laptop computers. Eat out all the time. All paid for by mommy and daddy. Then after they graduate, many cannot find jobs, so 60% of all college graduates move back in with mommy and daddy to leech more money so they can maintain their 'lifestyle'.


Please don't pretend that kids these days are lazy and have their parents pay for everything at college. I work pretty hard to pay for rent and groceries, and I consider myself lucky relative to my friends since my parents are paying the tuition. And for the record, kids these days don't have jobs because their parents are keeping them so busy in various clubs, with music, with research (I'm not joking- several friends' parents were having them do research on computers and helping physics researchers during High School.), with sports, and everything else imaginable.

As for moving back in with my parents, that's something I plan on doing, but only for maybe a year or so, and I also plan on paying them for whatever it costs to have me at home- and then several hundred dollars more a month for rent so they hopefully benefit from this arrangement, too. My friends who are thinking about moving back in with parents for a short time are also at least going to help pay for groceries, from what I've heard.

Having college kids move back in with parents shouldn't be looked down upon with derision by peak oilers and conservationists. Rather, if it's done fairly (as my experience has shown it has been), it winds up helping us make for an efficient use of resources and helps us put more money in the bank and/or pay off loans.
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Re: the end of arrogance

Postby MD » Fri 26 Aug 2005, 19:19:08

I really don't want my kids living here post college. I have tried to teach them to be self reliant and traditionally conservative. Stay out of debt, don't live beyond your means, work hard, be community minded, etc. Hopefully they will be able to stay afloat.

If they can't though, they will be here. We are 100% debt free, well employed, and drive 10 year old but well maintained cars. We can afford the extended family, for now.
Stop filling dumpsters, as much as you possibly can, and everything will get better.

Just think it through.
It's not hard to do.
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Re: the end of arrogance

Postby I_Like_Plants » Sat 27 Aug 2005, 00:44:14

For millions of American kids, family is looking "forward" to a night going to bed hungry, and at the last minute, that afternoon, they get some yard work and earn like $5, enough for bread and a doz eggs so their family goes to bed with something in their stomach. School means looking down at the ground a lot, both to find stuff dropped that you can't afford (pens and pencils) and also to keep from being beaten to death for Walking While White. Whole catagories of work kept out of your reach because you're "non-minority" and most of the hope of going to college, no matter how smart you are. You learn to live on say $350 a month, and feel rich when your pay goes up to 20% over min. wage. Neighborhood, all stores and businesses, gov't and school system even college owned and operated by those of a more privelaged race and operated for them, not for you.

This is reality for millions of American kids.

When the shit hits the fan and there's enough food around to feed 20% of the population and 80% of the population is more privelaged races that have been stomping on this kid since they can remember, you hand this kid a rifle and what do you think is going to happen?

Problem solved

I don't worry too much about my country. Bring it on.
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Postby Snowrunner » Sat 27 Aug 2005, 03:41:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NevadaGhosts', 'I') see the exact opposite. Many American college students are spoiled, arrogant little brats, who have mommy and daddy pay for everything. They drive around in their $30,000 SUV's. Blab all day on their cell phones during peak time. Dress smartly. Have expensive laptop computers. Eat out all the time. All paid for by mommy and daddy. Then after they graduate, many cannot find jobs, so 60% of all college graduates move back in with mommy and daddy to leech more money so they can maintain their 'lifestyle'.


It isn't much different here in Canada. I am living near the University and I can see it pretty much daily.

The funniest thing is that I also have seen some resentment from other people. So yes, I can afford buying a new Powerbook, but I also didn't really go on vacation and I did put in a lot of overtime for which I got paid. Plus, I am at least 10 years older than they are and unlike them I had to work for everything I own, be it a car or a new computer.

I think the biggest problem really is the feel of "entitelment" that many people have, I rather defer a purchase for a couple of months or a year if I don't have the money rather than finance it on my credit card (and yes, I have had people tell me to just use the card).

I think the saddest story I ever heard was from a guy who owned a Subway Franchise. He told me that he was in the crapper for 10 years because of his wedding. Why? Because he maxed out his credit cards in order to pay for it. Personally I would have either taken a personal loan or just not spent that much money, when I told him so he said getting a loan never occured to him, it is somewhat the "uncanadian" way.

Guess I should be happy not to be Canadian then?
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Re: the end of arrogance

Postby Snowrunner » Sat 27 Aug 2005, 03:47:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('spudbuddy', '
')The last generation that could actually work their way through college were the tweeners....too young for WW2 and just preceding the boomers...they were all out in the work force by the late 50's.


Then maybe I got lucky. I never went to University, or College. But then I came from Europe and went to a trade school there.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')ducation is all about money now...the cost of it, and the projected earnings.
I work in a university library.
I see the absolute fear and loathing, the horror and mistrust on a student's face when they look at a nice big thick fat book, and wonder if what's between its covers = income or not (value added.)


That is sad. But I have seen this too, unfortunatly.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') remember a trend back in the 80's:
A lot of smart kids with smart parents chose to combine a 3-year degree (in whatever) with a 2-year certificate in some hard line skilled techinical skill. That was their fallback when the degree didn't lead to anything...and often paid for postgrad when an MA was necessary.
Few seem to go that route now.


One thing I noticed: The ones who didn't go to college / University seem to be a bit better grounded and have a better grasp on life. There seems to be some kind of thinking along the lines of: "Well, I have a college degree and thus I deserve to be making more money."

I noticed that in one of my last job where we got Co-ops, a collegue and myself never went to college / university but both have years of experience and neither of us has fallen on our heads, but we got quite a bit of attitude from this little punk thinking that because HE will have a degree some day he could command us around (that idea lasted all but 20 minutes, after which we both told him very clearly how the pecking order works and maybe one day he is in a position to give us orders, but until then his ass was ours).
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Re: the end of arrogance

Postby jmacdaddio » Sat 27 Aug 2005, 11:10:20

Say what you will about the X Generation of which I am a member, but I'm amazed at the materialism and sense of entitlement in the Y generation. I find it hard to believe that a 23 yr old university grad can afford a BMW M3 or the cell phone that he's constantly on. When I finished school it was more or less assumed that everyone was going to struggle for a few years, whether saving money while living in mom's basement or sharing a dirty apartment with 7 roommates. New grads now expect a luxury apartment and a BMW M3 handed to them, along with an iPod, cell phone, etc. If it's not handed to them, that's where credit cards come in.
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Re: the end of arrogance

Postby MD » Sat 27 Aug 2005, 12:48:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jmacdaddio', 'S')ay what you will about the X Generation of which I am a member, but I'm amazed at the materialism and sense of entitlement in the Y generation. I find it hard to believe that a 23 yr old university grad can afford a BMW M3 or the cell phone that he's constantly on. When I finished school it was more or less assumed that everyone was going to struggle for a few years, whether saving money while living in mom's basement or sharing a dirty apartment with 7 roommates. New grads now expect a luxury apartment and a BMW M3 handed to them, along with an iPod, cell phone, etc. If it's not handed to them, that's where credit cards come in.


It will be an extremely short-lived phenomenon
Stop filling dumpsters, as much as you possibly can, and everything will get better.

Just think it through.
It's not hard to do.
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Re: the end of arrogance

Postby advancedatheist » Sat 27 Aug 2005, 17:23:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('albente', 'W')hen looking around and focusing on the "un-failable and essentially arrogant attitude" that a lot of our co-humans wonder around in this world, it seems that there are positive side effects to PO. Namely taking a lot of them down their high horse backs.


PO threatens to blow up the fundamental myth of the modern free market ideology, namely, The Materially Productive Individual. When you realize how many per capita "energy slaves" we have at our disposal because of fossil fuels, you really have to wonder why we still pretend that our puny efforts amount to anything. Unlike what Ayn Rand believed about the real source of wealth, we have ridden in relative comfort on the shoulders of a fossil hydrocarbon Atlas for the past 200 years, a giant which now threatens to shrug us off.
"There was a time before reason and science when my ancestors believed in all manner of nonsense." Narim on <I>Stargate SG-1</i>.
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Re: the end of arrogance

Postby aldente » Sun 28 Aug 2005, 01:36:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jmacdaddio', ' ')New grads now expect a luxury apartment and a BMW M3 handed to them, along with an iPod, cell phone, etc. If it's not handed to them, that's where credit cards come in.


Average adults are not different. Instead of credit cards they are using cheap credit, it is all borrowed money anyway that makes the US of A go round. I see the youngsters as being a direct result of their parents, who in turn simply carry out an encouraged behaviour. If we blame the governments and (linked?) monetary institutions, well...we're on the wrong track. The rabbit hole goes deeper.

I don't think I started this post to blame consumer misbehavor but rather to point out inequalities that neccessarily result over time within societies. But then again, Marx and Engels were on the same route some time ago and all this is just the cat chasing its own tail.

In California there is this notion that if you "own" you are on an elevated level in society (as compared to renting a home). These young home owners will live through reality once the realize that the will not "own" for another 30 years and that renting from a landlord or mortgaging from a bank is not all that different with the only exception that the true renter can walk away from the property while the "owner" is stuck in that "lead on his leg"-mortgage. It is astonishing how far true monetary value can be disconnected from illusionary value just because it "hits home" literally and what manipulations are possible on a real estate market...

As you can see from my post I am not a "owner" otherwise I couldn't possibly place this post.

Cheers

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Re: the end of arrogance

Postby jmacdaddio » Sun 28 Aug 2005, 02:54:54

Whenever recent homebuyers beam with pride over "owning" property, I remind them that if you "own" and you have a mortgage, you're "renting" someone else's money. Nobody owns unless it's paid for. True, you can paint the walls whatever color you like but I'm not jumping into the bubble just to paint my walls navy blue.
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Postby wilburke » Sun 28 Aug 2005, 13:59:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('heyhoser', 'I') don't know anyone personally in my age group who is arrogant when it comes to their lifestyle. Out of high school, out of college, we're dying here, no money, no jobs (I had to move 300 miles from my hometown to find one in my field), harrased by the 'system' in so many ways.
It friggin' blows.

So, anyway, not all Americans are rich a-holes, not even most of 'em.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NevadaGhosts', 'I') see the exact opposite. Many American college students are spoiled, arrogant little brats, who have mommy and daddy pay for everything. They drive around in their $30,000 SUV's. Blab all day on their cell phones during peak time. Dress smartly. Have expensive laptop computers. Eat out all the time. All paid for by mommy and daddy. Then after they graduate, many cannot find jobs, so 60% of all college graduates move back in with mommy and daddy to leech more money so they can maintain their 'lifestyle'.


I think that the truth lies in the similarity of outcomes in these two great quotes. The main point is that for the young of today, jobs are scarce. Depending upon what college you are talking about, yes, there are alot of kids driving new cars who won't be in a panic mode after graduation. They won't be working either. heyhoser brings in the high school grads as well, and their general lack of a viable future in our new and wonderful "Jobless" economy.

Just a few years back, in the late 90's, I remember interviewing numerous recent college grads for jobs at our company, and being struck by the incredible arrogance of some these kids. It was almost as it I were wasting their time asking about their qualifications, the implication being that I should have been trying to convince them why they should bother working for me. And I can tell you, that attitude dimished in a great hurry after May 2000 (NASDAQ bubble bursts), and vanished after 9/11.

Being a high school graduate in the late 70's was pretty awful, but it is nothing compared to what the young people are going through today (and this, without even mentioning the specter of a military draft). I have nothing but sympathy, even for the supposedly secure upper-middle class variety whose consumption habits are being funded by a Real Estate/Refi/House-as-ATM economy that is about to send their parents into financial purgatory.
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Re: the end of arrogance

Postby Snowrunner » Sun 28 Aug 2005, 14:55:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('albente', 'I')n California there is this notion that if you "own" you are on an elevated level in society (as compared to renting a home). These young home owners will live through reality once the realize that the will not "own" for another 30 years and that renting from a landlord or mortgaging from a bank is not all that different with the only exception that the true renter can walk away from the property while the "owner" is stuck in that "lead on his leg"-mortgage. It is astonishing how far true monetary value can be disconnected from illusionary value just because it "hits home" literally and what manipulations are possible on a real estate market...


It isn't much different here in Canada. Many people are asking me why I am not "buying" and thus set myself up better financially.

I am tired of this by now, but once I did sit down with the guy and we were doing the math and low and behold *I* was financially actually better off as I wasn't tied to a property that may or may not be appreciating in value over the next 30 years.

But most people really don't get it. He was in the end STILL arguing that he's better off because his house is already more worth than it was when he bought it, and "real estate will always be worth something".

Dunno, a house build on a former sand lot? What's the value in this? Growing something on there will almost be impossible and who would want to live on such a property in the middle of "nowhere" when driving gets too expensive?
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