[arocoun]

A very common opposition to the seriousness of peak oil is that its date has been predicted wrongly a lot, and that those who are worried and want to change things are doomsaying crazies. On peak oil's own Wikipedia page, for instance, peak oil is shown as having been predicted on many wrong dates, and that is used as an argument for why peak oil is being taken too seriously.

Most of those dates can be explained. For example, it is understandable that Hubbert was wrong about oil production peaking between 1995 and 2000 because of the unforseen oil problems of the 70's, and the recession in, I believe it was, the 80's. And most predictions between 2000 and 2005 are close enough to today's generally-accepted dates to be forgiven, given the fact that the true reserves in OPEC countries have to be guessed, since they are a bunch of dirty, lying businessmen.

I hate to create a whole thread to ask this little question, but I couldn't find an answer on the Wikipedia page or the forums: Who predicted that PO would happen in 1989?! It seems Campbell did, but did others?

[smiley]

If I'm not mistaken former president Carter predicted a peak in the 80's

[Ming]

Where can that Campbell prediction (PO in 1989) be found?

I know of his Scientific American prediction, written in 1998 and pointing to the end of the first decade of this century.
An image can be found here
(That one seems right on target.)

But I never found the prediction for 1989.

[engulfthemanatee]

Also keep in mind that it takes a few years for the peak to be seen.