[dean]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')f the dollar tanks, this 3.7 trillion worth of bad checks is going to hit the bank.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dean', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')f the dollar tanks, this 3.7 trillion worth of bad checks is going to hit the bank.

[Ayoob]

It depends on how bad you think it'll get and just how stupid we all are. If I can figure this shit out for myself I'm sure there's thousands of people all over the place who know what this means. There's 2000 subscribers to the energy resources mailing list and thousands more on runningonempty2. You know these people are kind of evangelistic about the topic and tend to talk to their friends about what this means for all of us.

I know I've talked to at least ten of my friends at length on the topic, and one of them now calls me from time to time to talk about it in more depth. There's got to be tens of thousands who know. Plus, people listen to stories about it on NPR, and more people read magazines like Forbes et al, which have subscriber bases in the tens of thousands, all the books and DVD's and Chomsky's speeches... I mean there were 500,000 people in NYC out there in the street protesting, and a bunch of them were talking about oil there. This is definitely known and talked about in public.

This is a huge movement here in the US. We have over a hundred meetups on meetup.com scattered all over the place. There are seven separate meetups in the LA area alone!

We talk to each other, and I'm sure this is going to be a MAJOR ISSUE in the next election. We won't even be talking about terror anymore by then. The pretense will have been dropped. It will be totally apparent to anyone that there is trouble about this and we have to take drastic action immediately. This will be a far greater issue than the federal highway system, social security, prescription drug benefits, God, ANYTHING.

It will suck when this happens, you'll see a lot of poverty for a while. But, poverty or no, we will pull together and make some kind of useful lives for ourselves. There will be trouble, and we will deal with it humanely and responsibly. The people of this country, very much unlike the current administration, are a compassionate group who care about their neighbors and wouldn't want millions of starving homeless people in their cities. We as a nation wouldn't stand for it. You would see the Catholic Chairities, the Red Cross, the Southern Baptists, the Freemasons, the fucking COAST GUARD out there helping their neighbors get adjusted to a new reality. There will be no bizarre Mad Max nightmare to deal with out there.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n my mind, there is absolutely no doubt that PO is technologically solvable ... 250 mpg VW's, China's Pebble Bed reactors, Coal Gasification, etc. the TECHNOLOGY is there already

[JohnDenver]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n my mind, there is absolutely no doubt that PO is technologically solvable ... 250 mpg VW's, China's Pebble Bed reactors, Coal Gasification, etc. the TECHNOLOGY is there already

[ShawnAvery]

i think you live in a sheltered world if you think that the world isnt ALREADY fucking screwed due to climate change. i live in arizona, its been a drought here for a looong time, the water tables are all going down way too quickly, the colorado river is fooked.. its water levels are so low.

but im not even complaining... hurricanes keep getting worse and more frequent, in case you havent noticed. im wondering what will be left of florida and the east coast in a few years.

now THAT is a perfect storm, hehe.. 150 mph winds and billions of dollars in damage, and thats not even counting the new one on the way.. ivan. i bet that one is going to TOTALLY mess some stuff up.

i read a scientific article saying the changes humanity makes to the air are delayed 50 years. so the stuff that is happening right now.. is from 50 years ago, when there were half as many people on the planet.

think really hard.. i know this is a stretch, but im going to put it to you very plainly.

6,300,000,000

humans on every continent and island, fishing every stream and ocean, farming every plot of land, killing every animal.

the only place where we DON'T normally hang out is in the deep sea and on the poles (though SOME people apparently like it that cold)

i live in the middle of the desert where the temperature never freezes, ok? if you stay outside too long here, you DIE. the sun fucking roasts you like a hot dog. oil enables people to live here comfortably, and many other places. air conditioning is life, its on right now, and its 3 in the morning!

ever seen any pictures of the planet from space? go to terraserver i think its called..

take a look around, roads everywhere, cities that cover whole sections of the planet.

ever watch star trek? remember the borg?

humanity is to earth as the borg is to the federation.

and guess what, the federation always wins, though the borg has the more baddest assed economy.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', ' ')
Which leads me to question whether your position derives from sound analysis, or just an adjustment problem with the world around you.

[StayOnTarget]

Thanks Monte. I've enjoyed your posts throughout the forums. These are very cogent arguements.


I guess its all about buying gold bullion then!

[WhistleWind]

OK, we all know that in the long term oil will be a lot more than
$50, but we have been at that price or there abouts for 6 months,
and with new resources coming on tap, and the US economy
staggering on, I don't see why it won't continue at about this
level for a few more years, as we bump along the peak. So what
would the impact be on the world as a whole?

Basic supply and demand enforces that when supply is limited, price
will rise until those that cannot afford it, stop buying the product.
Who will that be?

My first guess is that the effect on the developed world will be
very little, maybe increased inflation, and a reduced growth rate,
but nothing to wake the slumbering masses. They will get used
to paying more , but in historic terms, it will still not be all that
expensive.

The people who will hurt are the third world, who are dependant on
cheap oil to sustain their marginal existence. They will see prices for
their products squeezed as the global markets for coffee, chocolate and luxury vegetables contract, just as their costs go through
the roof. There have already been riots in countries like Bolivia,
Nepal and Nigeria over the government contolled price of oil and
gas. I see more civil wars in oil producing countries like Nigeria, where
the starving locals cannot even afford the oil which the foreign corporations are busy pumping out of the ground they themselves
owned before being evicted by their governments in the name of progress.

In a world of finite energy, and therefore finite GDP, the only way for
the rich to get richer is for the poor to get poorer.

[lorenzo]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('WhistleWind', '
')The people who will hurt are the third world, who are dependant on
cheap oil to sustain their marginal existence. They will see prices for
their products squeezed as the global markets for coffee, chocolate and luxury vegetables contract, just as their costs go through
the roof. There have already been riots in countries like Bolivia,
Nepal and Nigeria over the government contolled price of oil and
gas. I see more civil wars in oil producing countries like Nigeria, where
the starving locals cannot even afford the oil which the foreign corporations are busy pumping out of the ground they themselves
owned before being evicted by their governments in the name of progress.

In a world of finite energy, and therefore finite GDP, the only way for
the rich to get richer is for the poor to get poorer.

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 't')he third world will start to plant biodiesel crops on a huge scale.

[lorenzo]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '
')When will they begin doing this on a wide scale? How will they do it without destroying their ecosystem?

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')iodiesel is being used and cultivated today.

[spot5050]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lorenzo', 'H')ere, read this article about the Coconut Cartel, which shows you that Pacific Island nations are now using coconut oil because it is far cheaper than petrodiesel.

[nocar]

As I understand it, coconut oil or "butter" was previously an export crop for south sea islanders, who have always had coconuts. Now because coconut fat is a hard and saturated type of fat they can not longer sell it - people in developed countries are afraid of hardened artheries and cholesterol. It used to be put into margarine. So if the south sea islanders now have enough coconut fat to feed buses, at least they can save on petrol imports.

Instead the developed world is buying palm oil for their margarine, meanwhile encroaching on the natural habitats in East Asia. Palm oil is unsaturated, like olive oil, but cheaper. I guess it is poorer people which are displaced and do the work than the olive oil people around Mediterranean Sea.

I think the oil palm naturally grows in west Africa (but good if someone will correct me), and has been used by Africans for centuries or millenia. But if I am right, and it was so easy and good return to grow it everywhere in Africa as Lorenzo claims, IMO it would already have spread all over. The Africans started growing maize all over when it arrived there from America.

My household now uses ecological/organic butter only, great taste. Or rape/canola oil. Those things are produced here in Sweden. You will not find margarine in our fridge after I learned the truth of modern margarine.

When you want an intuitive estimate of the energy requirements of your car, just think butter/cooking oil/margarine. Volume- and weightwise they correspond rather well to either gasoline or diesel. How far can you bicycle on a gallon of butter or cooking oil or the equivalent number of food calories in your favorite forms? How much butter or cooking oil do you regularly feed your car?

You will not find a car in my household's garage. But we depend on petroleum to lubricate our bicycle chains. Several drops a season. That's why we happily eat butter - we do not believe cholesterol will kill bicyclists.

Why do you all think "petroleum" was called that, meaning "rock oil", in the first place?

[nocar]

The question about 50 dollar/gallon oil: I think bicyclists will be able to lubricate their chains even with oil at 500 dollar/gallon.

[futuretrip]

I think we all agree that $50 oil is here to stay for a while, after that, it will be cheaper to use wind power (for our electricity). Natural gas is due to run out too. So is uranium! A MIT study concluded that there is enough to supply 1,000 1gigawatt plants for about 50 years - that's only about the USA total electrical usage for (estimated) 30 years with growth. Natural gas, I found, was only good for 1,000 days or so (hope I,m wrong). But the renewables will outlast, problem is, will they perform?
With Biofuels, How many square kilometers or miles of land will it take to produce the equivalent of world oil consumption - or twice that for future needs - how about 10 times to open up China and all the third world also to our standards! - I don't think the 2 diminsions of land (and sunlight hitting Earth) has it! Solar therefore should be robotically mass produced to justify the large expanse required. should also be used (in large concentrations) somehow to physically split water for hydrogen. Wind, well even large corporations are into it. That tells me that it is the choice for electricity. In fact, I'm not even worried about our electrical future! I'm, just afraid people will run out of oil before we use it to mass produce millions of large turbines. However, it's to expensive to convert that into fuel (unless you have lots of car batteries)

So what we'll have is about 1% of the people trying to figure out the solution in allsorts of crazy or newfangled ways.

In case you're wondering, I,m Robert from Big Bear CA and am too concerned about the future of energy. I'm (newly) pro wind because it will be the only source after all else is stripped away.

[aahala]

I believe $50 oil may have economic impact but not dramatically so.

In the late 70s or early 80s, oil in real terms was 60-70% higher than $50 is now, there were significant economic aspects, then the US did apply the efficiency and consersation measures. The price of oil dropped considerably.

There is probably more "slack" in US driving habits and fleet efficiency than then. Obviously, efficiency can't solve the exhaustion of finite resources, but it can smooth out the effects.

[pup55]

In the following thread:

http://peakoil.com/fortopic5726.html

We put forth the following hypothesis:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')y hypothesis is that down deep, under all the fluff in the current economy, there is a core of activity that consists of making things, building things, digging things out of the ground, refining, maybe or maybe not shippign things from one place to another, but actual useful work that people are doing, and if you compute oil expenditures for "useful economic work" for this time period, compared to 1981, it's right about the same as it always was, maybe higher now.

[Kingcoal]

Productivity increases are fueled by automation. That automation tends to be fueled by hydrocarbons/coal. Increasing productivity means reducing the number of people required to do a particular job.

Expensive oil alters that formula. At some point it becomes more cost effective to employ people to dig a ditch by hand than to power the diesel powered shovel.