[Taskforce_Unity]

The draft version of my oil production outlook based on coming oil projects and depletion is finished

You can find the newest version here

Peak Oil Netherlands

If you have any comments, criticism or additions please add them in this thread.

The text has been improved (maybe some slight errors still) and some comments have been taken into account

[jato]

Saudi Arabia has 259.4 billion barrels of proven reserves? Isn't that very optimistic?

[Taskforce_Unity]

those reserve numbers are just references from the Oil & Gas Journal.

They are not used in any way in this outlook

[jato]

Then take out the garbage.

[Taskforce_Unity]

nah, i will post an Oil and Gas journal reference and a statement. it has its function for reference purposes.

[khebab]

I think your estimate for Canadian tar sands is maybe a little bit pessimistic, I've read somewhere that the URR is estimated to be 280-300Gb. The objective of 2.6-2.8 mbpd in 2015 is conservative and assumes a $35 a barrel, it 's safe to think that a $50 a barrel is now the norm and will boost investment.

[Taskforce_Unity]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('khebab', 'I') think your estimate for Canadian tar sands is maybe a little bit pessimistic, I've read somewhere that the URR is estimated to be 280-300Gb. The objective of 2.6-2.8 mbpd in 2015 is conservative and assumes a $35 a barrel, it 's safe to think that a $50 a barrel is now the norm and will boost investment.

[Shiraz]

Question/criticism:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')) Method
Oil production figures are taken from the Oil, Gas, Coal and Electricity Quarterly Statistics. Based on these
figures a decline rate is calculated for countries which have peaked and declined for several years. The decline
rate for the years 2005-2010 is calculated by taking the average decline rate from the peak.
In the case of an indication that a country is going to peak or an underlying decline rate, data from various sources
is analyzed and a probably decline rate is estimated for a certain part of the countries oil production.
Added to the declining oil production are new oil projects taken from various sources.

[rockdoc123]

Good piece of detective work Taskforce_Unity. Just some comments from my own perspective realizing that you have to incorporate published information.

Libya...I think their comments on Libya are very pessimistic. As they mention coming on-stream immediately is the Elephant field in the Murzuk basin but I also know that NOC made a discovery below Intisar field that they claim has 2-3 billion barrels in it (would be in the Sarir Fm). As well with the Oasis group and now Oxy returning to their old assets I think there is considerable opportunity for additional discoveries. Talking with many of the expats who worked for Sirte, Agoco and Waha since nationalization it would seem there is a lot of near field stepout exploration that is possible. There are also a number of discoveries that were never brought on stream simply because Sirte and Agoco did not have the budget....at $60 oil these will definitely be developed.

Qatar.....another one that might be slightly pessimistic. Maersk is sitting on some 20 billion barrels of oil at Al Shaheen. There plans are to double their current production levels over the next couple of years. But perhaps when you take into account declines at the other reservoirs (Bul Hanine, Al Rayaan etc.) this will just be part of the noise?

Algeria....seems optimistic to me. In order to have the increases in 2008 and 2009 that would mean that there would have to be new discoveries sitting out there waiting to be developed. The only non-gas discovery not yet on stream as far as I know would be Anadarko's El Merk which isn't huge. Algeria is producing full out as far as I know....are the numbers here official OPEC production quota numbers or actuals?

Norway....there was a bit of noise recently about a largish discovery near Trolls (600 MMB according to the early reports which was pooh poohed later on by the operator). There are a number of areas re-opening to exploration which might bring some upside but again as you point out they have likely peaked so any additions will just slow the decline.

But of course the wild card is Saudi and as pointed out so many times in these threads without knowing how much they really have accurate predictions about peak are difficult since they make up so much of the yet to be produced.

[Taskforce_Unity]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Shiraz', 'Q')uestion/criticism:

I'm not perfectly clear on this but, the way I read it, what you are doing is taking an estimated decline rate, extrapolating, then adding new projects on to that. This seems to be inconsistent because, after all, the historic decline rate has persisted despite new projects in the past. Alternatively, you may be referring to the rate of depletion of the existing resource base. It is ambiguous as to which of these you refer in places, and I hope this is not ambiguous in later updates.

[khebab]

This is really a nice work, you seem to put PO between 2010 and 1015 which is also the conclusion from the French report on PO. A few comments:
- on Figure 5: it will be nice to split the total production outlook in OPEC and non-OPEC productions and maybe conventionnal/unconventionnal oil. A vertical grid could also make the graph easier to read.
- on Figure 2: are the two lines (blue and green) for projected demand? why the two lines do not start from the same point (end of 2005).

[Taskforce_Unity]

Khebab can you provide me with the actual sentences or pages were they say a peak between 2010 and 2015 in that french report? (my french is not good enough).

As far as i know they are just talking about a peak between 2012 and 2100....

Is it their actual conclusion that the peak will happen that fast??

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('khebab', '
')- on Figure 5: it will be nice to split the total production outlook in OPEC and non-OPEC productions and maybe conventionnal/unconventionnal oil. A vertical grid could also make the graph easier to read.
- on Figure 2: are the two lines (blue and green) for projected demand? why the two lines do not start from the same point (end of 2005).

[khebab]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Taskforce_Unity', 'K')hebab can you provide me with the actual sentences or pages were they say a peak between 2010 and 2015 in that french report? (my french is not good enough).

As far as i know they are just talking about a peak between 2012 and 2100....

Is it their actual conclusion that the peak will happen that fast??

[bruin]

Great report. You dealt very well with published reports. I actually found it very encouraging since I've been expecting a peak in 2008.

[rrb]

Just a minor detail, in figure 2, the 1% and 2% growth
curves look linear.
But 1% or 2% growth year on year means that the curves
should go up exponentially. So, the 1% curve starting at
about 84800 (if I read it correctly) should end closer to
90000 than the 89000 it now does. Likewise for the 2% curve.

[Taskforce_Unity]

Point of own reflection: Russian production needs editing, it is probably too low.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '=')"RRB"]
"Just a minor detail, in figure 2, the 1% and 2% growth
curves look linear.
But 1% or 2% growth year on year means that the curves
should go up exponentially. So, the 1% curve starting at
about 84800 (if I read it correctly) should end closer to
90000 than the 89000 it now does. Likewise for the 2% curve."

[rockdoc123]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')mmz interesting and i agree that it is probably too pessimistic, if you can name these fields i can try to look them up and incorporate them. The Elephant field is included though. Do you have any idea if the decline estimate is accurate?

[smiley]

Good work, however I think the prediuction for Mexico needs some adjustment.

Pemex supplies reasonable field by field information in their statistical yearbook.

stat

You can see that essentially everything except Cantarell is in decline. And Pemex official as well as the EIA have confirmed that Cantarell just hit the onset of the decline this year. That's 60% of Mexico's production declining at a 14% rate. Add that to the decline of the other fields and you get a much steeper decline than your data seem to suggest.

Judging by their latest figures they have a few other problems as well. Juli production is down by 400.000 barrels (probably due to the hurricane or something).

http://www.pemex.com/files/dcpe/eprohidro_ing.pdf

[Taskforce_Unity]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Smiley', '
')Pemex supplies reasonable field by field information in their statistical yearbook

[Taskforce_Unity]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rockdoc123', '
')Unfortunately NOC hasn't been very forthcoming with the information. My understanding is the discovery is about 2.5 billion barrels in size in the Cretaceous Sarir Fm. beneath the Intisar field which has been producing from Tertiary reefs for a long time. Maybe as a strawman if you added in another 5-7 billion barrels of discoveries spread out over the next 4-5 years it might be a good approximation of what is possible. Note in Algeria the Berkine basin during period 1994 - 2000 had about 5 billion barrels discovered so probably not a bad approximation. w.r.t Elephant my understanding is your numbers are correct.