[The Ducker]

Global oil crisis lurking, Demand growing, supply leveling off by Marilyn Geewax, Cox News Service, Sept. 5, 2004 12:00 AM:
link Looks like that-quack!, er...I mean, peak oil is getting mor - quack!...um, more-quack! good coverage.

Seriously,though, I hate it when these reports, while increasing in frequency, and more detailed information, generally seem to revert back to: "Well, ya just never know!" when in reality, the scientific consensus truly is before 2020, right around 2010, because no one's yet explained what this myterious "unidentified non-conventional oil" EIA is using to balance out the SHORTAGE in supply beginning in 2010 really is.
-A Peak Oil Duck and Proud of It.

[geingrene]

Hey fellow Quack,

Yep Yahoo business news had a story on it, so you know it's mainstream. Most people who are intrested in the ramifications are convinced some oil will be found, or that a techno marvel will save the day (like the false messiah "Hydrogen" and the "Freedoomed Car").

Enjoy the doom and gloom whilst you still have a puter' to write with.

[Sedona]

I saw a video by Colin Campbell who said that "unidentified non-conventional oil" is a emphemsim for "depletion".

[Sedona]

Dang spell checker! ... euphemism for "depletion."

[Laurasia]

You guys are funny! Thanks for the humour - we're going to need some in our peak oil scenarios! :D

Regards,

L.

[Cyrus]

http://www.lefthook.org/Theory/Chege050505.html

I find this a very powerful statement.

[Sys1]

Excellent article.

[LadyRuby]

I think these may be true, but do you have any evidence to base these on? I'm proposing some research, and I'd like to be able to assert that conventional oil has peaked in non-Opec countries, and that worldwide light sweet crude has peaked.

[MD]

There may be a very temporary surplus beginning soon. Then it will be down hill all the way.

[Zentric]

Yes. Applying simple "chaos theory", with the world going to hell, why shouldn't oil production go to hell, as well?

[MicroHydro]

I agree. In retrospect light sweet peaked in early-mid 2004 when the drop offs in North Sea (Norway&UK) and Mexico-Cantarell are taken into account. Global total oil production has been maintained and increased only by diluting the Saudi export mix with more heavy sour from wells previously held in reserve.

The conventional non-OPEC oil that remains to be fully exploited (Alaska, Sakalin, various places in Africa, South China Sea) is insufficient to offset the declines in existing non-OPEC fields.

[Antimatter]

I don't think you will be able to find if light sweet crude has peaked, (Mexico's Cantarell field was heavy crude anyway) unless maybe you shell out $100,000 for IHS Energy's database. According to the BP statistical review, link, non-OPEC production in 2004 was higher than 2003, so no it doesn't appear to have peaked yet. Non-OPEC non-FSU also increased slightly. The EIA also gives production figures. Unfounded opinions and speculation are, of course, free.

[clv101]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('LadyRuby', 'I') think these may be true, but do you have any evidence to base these on? I'm proposing some research, and I'd like to be able to assert that conventional oil has peaked in non-Opec countries, and that worldwide light sweet crude has peaked.

[MicroHydro]

Agree, Chris has proven it, peak sweet light happened 1-4 years ago.

[Taskforce_Unity]

Non Opec has not yet peaked, there are still lots of new projects coming to offset decline.

A few examples:

Buzzard UK (2006) 200.000 b/d
Mexico Crudo Ligero Marino 400.000 b/d
Russia Yuzhno-Khylchuyuskoye 200.000 b/d
Azerbaijan ACG mega-structure Phase 1+2+3 1.2 mb/d

[clv101]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Taskforce_Unity', 'N')on Opec has not yet peaked, there are still lots of new projects coming to offset decline.

A few examples:

Buzzard UK (2006) 200.000 b/d
Mexico Crudo Ligero Marino 400.000 b/d
Russia Yuzhno-Khylchuyuskoye 200.000 b/d
Azerbaijan ACG mega-structure Phase 1+2+3 1.2 mb/d

[backstop]

Lady Ruby -

With regard to the peaking of Light Sweet Crude, it seems to me (and am no geologist) that in terms of the core issue of Peak Oil, namely the end of cheap oil, Peak Light Sweet Crude was Peak Oil.

Which would mean that, just like the US oil production peak in the early '70s, the significant global peak has happened but was only spotted afterwards.

Good luck with your research project.

Regards,

Backstop

[Taskforce_Unity]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('clv101', 'A')re these all light sweet? And do they all add up to more than the 3.26 mb/d non-OPEC light sweet crude we've lost since 2000 and further depletion this year moving forward?

[clv101]

Oh yeah, no one is saying there isn't still an increase in production overall. It's the decrease in light sweet that is interesting.

[Sparaxis]

One thing has bothered me about this report. It claims "In 2000, non-OPEC crude output was 66 mb/d and....in 2004 with production at 70 mb/d..."

What are they referring to? In the same report, p. 29, in the summary table of world oil supply, non-OPEC production is shown as 49.81 mmbd in 2004.

That's the correct figure for non-OPEC production (OPEC is now at about 30 mmbd, NGLs, etc. being the rest). So what is the 70 mb/d? None of the articles I've seen referring to this explain this discrepancy.