[newby]

i read today
"in real terms, stripping out inflation, oil is well below the $80 a barrel on average for the year after the 1979 oil crisis.
But the average price this year more than $53 per barrel is higher in real terms than the level during the l973-4 first oil crisis. "

Can anyone remember what the analystis were saying regarding these crisis years ? like ummmmm oil will go to 100$us?
and what caused the price shocks?
and what affect these prices had on the people/lifestyle at the time?
particulary the 1979 crisis.

Cheers
Newby

[pup55]

http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic2228.html
We had a thread on this earlier.

http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic8027.html
correction, two threads

[retiredguy]

Sorry I missed the threads, but I would like to respond.

I bought the house in which I now live in 1980. Stagflation was the order of the day. Money was unbelievably tight and very expensive. When I bought the house I was in the process of trying to sell the house in which I was currently living. Given the prime location, I knew I could sell the house rather quickly, despite the economy.

However, I had difficulty finding a lending institution who would provide a bridge loan to buy the new house. Finally, the realtor with whom I was working, talked a savings and loan about twenty miles away from Madison into (reluctantly) providing a loan at 19%.

When I sold the current home, I refinanced and the interest rate went down all the way to 13.75%. That is what stagflation is like. Mind you, home prices in 1980 were about twice the annual person's annual wage. That is definitely not the case today.

[Frontierenergy1]

I graduated from high school in 1974- so I guess that makes me an old-timer. My dad had a little country store that sold gas and at the time previous the OPEC boycott it sold for about $.35 per gallon. By '74 the price of gas had gotten to about .55 per gallon. or about a 40% increase. Later in the year because he did not sell in enough quantities he was dropped as a retailer. Without gas to sell his country store could not survive. Oil per barrel had gone from $3.00 per bbl to about $10.00. Inflation went through the roof - all things being relative. It is tempting to think wow, gas was cheap back then, but at that time. $10k was considered a good salary and you were rich if you made $20k annually. Gerald Ford had his WIN or Whip Inflation Now program that really didn't help much. That time period was the beginning of the Toyota's, Honda's, etc because of their higher fuel efficiency. The energy prices pretty much ripped the economy.

Some theorize that is why disco got so popular because people had enough to deal with and needed an escape. I wasn't into disco and at the time thought it was stupid. I became interested in the subject of energy in 1977 after taking an environmental science class in which I was impressed by how much hydrocarbons are embedded in so many products and our way of life and that in my lifetime I would probably see the beginning of the end of its availability. It was not taught as Hubberts Peak altough the concept of society having to go through signficant change was there. It seemed like science fiction at the time, maybe still does to a lot of people.

Two years later I was out of school and decided to make a road trip with some friends to the Rocky Mountains. It was the summer of 1979. My friend had a Pontiac Grandeville- a real gas sucking barge, but it ran good . We drove cross country at 55 mph with the windows rolled down and the air conditioner off to maximize our fuel. The prices were going up almost daily but we camped a lot of the time and lost track of the news-we would come back from the wilderness and it would look like the world was going to hell in a handbasket. You could not be assured that there was fuel ahead to get to your destination. But we made it.

This time period was followed by the recession of 1981 if you would like to research it. The price of oil dropped because of "demand destruction" that you hear about on this website. The economy had taken about the worse punch since the depression era and simply if you have about 10% unemployment you can expect a reduction in the consumption of energy. There were bumper stickers such as" Will the last one out of Detroit turn off the lights!" Down south where I worked in the oil field there were bumper stickers that said "Let the Bastards Freeze in the Dark!"

There was a time during the peak value of oil that there was talk of Saudi Arabia requiring oil being purchased in gold - not dollars. Since our dollar is backed only by the good faith and assets of the American people - a lot of inflation was created by just printing more paper money. Kind of like the Confederates did at the end of the Civil War. OPEC figured out that the value of their oil was up and the value of the dollar was down. An echo of this was when there was talk of oil being traded in Euros rather than dollars. Should oil ever be traded in some other commodity or currency, it would be a serious blow to our economy.

I remember in spring of '82 seeing magazines with the cover story "Energy Problem Solved" I saw those same headlines in '86 and '98. Maybe they'll have the same headlines in 2008 after some "demand destruction".

This was a little of what I saw. It is old history now.

[eastbay]

I remember waiting in gas lines typically 1 to 2 hours long. I remember drinking a few beers and doing my university homework while sitting in my car waiting for my turn at the pump. It really didn't cause me any hardship because I had to do this homework anyhow. Come to think of it, I actually enjoyed the peace and quiet of waiting in gas lines.

One striking feature about this brief 3 month period was the reduction in traffic. Non-essential driving was greatly reduced. I lived in a hill overlooking I-580 near Oakland and it was clear less people were driving.

[Sgs-Cruz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eastbay', '
')One striking feature about this brief 3 month period was the reduction in traffic. Non-essential driving was greatly reduced. I lived in a hill overlooking I-580 near Oakland and it was clear less people were driving.

[BabyPeanut]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pup55', 'h')ttp://www.peakoil.com/fortopic2228.html
We had a thread on this earlier.

http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic8027.html
correction, two threads

[strider3700]

Everytime the price jumps here for a few days we end up with the righthand lane running at or slightly below the speedlimit due to one or two people that are just putting along. Normally this results in blasting horns and people pulling out to the fast lane to pass but lately you just get these long trains of cars putting along. THe fast lane is 30-40 over the limit as always but normally the slow lane is close to that speed.

I'm too young to remember anything other then the results of the energy issue in the early 80's. I remember that my dad who is a carpenter and was relatively inexperienced(10 years experience or so) Was taking us camping a lot back then( he wasn't working it turns out) Mom also got a job cleaning business's that I went with her to do. Eventually dad left town to work for almost a year, My understanding is him driving the trailer out there and working there is about the only reason we mananged to keep the house and mom working is the only reason I had toys of any sort that came new in the box. We had lots of handdowns from the family who all lived in town though. At one point about 82 or 83 our house was up for sale but I don't really know why. We might have been thinking about moving or might have been close to needing to sell. Anyways after 6 months we took it off the market. Very Very rarely did anyone come to see it and it's a nice place in a good neighbourhood.

When I bought my house last year I was offere a 5.6% interest rate locking in for 5 years. I snapped that up instantly because It was the best I could get at the time and I remember my dad telling my how lucky they had been. Every 5 years when they had to renew they where never over 11%.

I remember reading last year about how Vancouver is one of the only places in the West that has ever had a housing bubble pop before. Back in the late 70's housing went through the roof pricewise. then the recession kicked in and they couldn't sell the places. And then People started leaving to Alberta to work there, the housing values plumetted for a bit and a few people were devestated. The market has been in an insane bull run for the past 4 years around here. I can see it happening again but not just in Vancouver again.