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peak oil = nasdaq 1999 - peak oil is not contrarian

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

peak oil = nasdaq 1999 - peak oil is not contrarian

Unread postby richardmmm » Sat 20 Aug 2005, 10:54:38

peak oil, peak oil, everyone is running out of oil, scare, panic, rumor, inuendo. stock up on firewood and food and guns for the coming chaos, WW3 and total collapse of society.

peak oil comments are everywhere, no one dare say that it might all be hype..........let's see how many people come and slam me on this forum, bring it on I say................

people talk about the housing bubble, they are aware of it, but oil is the real false hype bubble. no one talks about it being false, oil is as real and as indestructible as AOL and Netscape was. Positively untouchable. Perfectly Irrational. Prices are totally unquestionable and completely justified.

no one thinks that oil might be plentiful and the whole thing just a cash raising exercise ?

IT COSTS ABOUT $6 a barrel to get it out of the ground, even less in the desert regions.

why the hell do you think they invaded iraq...................

well obviously before the exercise began they needed to make sure that a mad crazed dictator, even one that was more or less contained didn't get his hands on an extra $50M USD everyday x 365 days a year. That's a lot of cruise misslies to lob at israel right there.................

if you own an oil well that is merrily pumping and you make say $4 a barrel at $10 oil. then oil goes to $50, that means you make an extra $40 a barrel, total of $44 a barel without even getting your butt out of bed.

even Bill Gates can't get away with that. That's like Microsoft raising the price on XP from $99 to $499 because the aluminium to print the disks is more expensive.

if you are a slightly loopy, ex-alcoholic president with many complexes, out done by daddy insecurity problems that have been glossed over by a fanatic relgious bent but you manage to follow your fathers footsteps, mainly by rigging an election...............

you need to pay back your buddies and pay them back bigtime. else maybe you'll get a bullet like good ole JFK. power comes with a price tag and some hefty strings attached. power is the ultimate status to obtain, it would be worth it if all you had to do is scratch a few backs in return for 8 years strutting about and living it up.

if your buddies are in the medical business you have to pay them back somehow, new legistlation, more pharamceutical funding etc.

if your buddies are oil men then ...........................real easy to pay them back..............

watch oil drop like a rock whilst all the surcharges and increased prices stay in every industry. it is a price increase exercise, a way of stripping money out of the middle classes, no one can complain, no one can say a word against it, what you gonna do about it ? you can always buy a bicycle..............
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Re: peak oil = nasdaq 1999 - peak oil is not contrarian

Unread postby basketballjones » Sat 20 Aug 2005, 11:36:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('richardmmm', 'p')eak oil, peak oil, everyone is running out of oil, scare, panic, rumor, inuendo. stock up on firewood and food and guns for the coming chaos, WW3 and total collapse of society.


who ever said anything about running out of oil? half of the oil that will ever be produced is still in the ground. Regardless, the amount of oil left is not important. the RATE of extraction is. If this year you cannot produce at the same rate as you did last year then what is the consequence.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('richardmmm', '
')no one thinks that oil might be plentiful and the whole thing just a cash raising exercise ?


and you call peak oilers conspiracist.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('richardmmm', '
')IT COSTS ABOUT $6 a barrel to get it out of the ground, even less in the desert regions.


why does the cost of production have any influence on the futures price?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('richardmmm', '
')why the hell do you think they invaded iraq...................


to moderate and influence the behaviour of iran and saudi arabia. As naughty as Iran is i wonder what they'd be up to if there werent 500,000 troops just over the border.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('richardmmm', '
')if you own an oil well that is merrily pumping and you make say $4 a barrel at $10 oil. then oil goes to $50, that means you make an extra $40 a barrel, total of $44 a barel without even getting your butt out of bed.


i'm not sure what this has to do with anything. care to tell us your point?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('richardmmm', '
')if you are a slightly loopy, ex-alcoholic president with many complexes, out done by daddy insecurity problems that have been glossed over by a fanatic relgious bent but you manage to follow your fathers footsteps, mainly by rigging an election...............

you need to pay back your buddies and pay them back bigtime. else maybe you'll get a bullet like good ole JFK. power comes with a price tag and some hefty strings attached. power is the ultimate status to obtain, it would be worth it if all you had to do is scratch a few backs in return for 8 years strutting about and living it up.

if your buddies are in the medical business you have to pay them back somehow, new legistlation, more pharamceutical funding etc.

if your buddies are oil men then ...........................real easy to pay them back..............


no arguments here. there's no doubt that Haliburton and co have benefitted 100% from the iraq invasion, but you're also forgetting a really big point. If the US (and the other 1st world countries) want to keep living the way they're living then it's absolutely neccesary for those countries to secure any and all oil reserves they can get their hands on. I'm against the war (i'm an aussie) but for western civilisation to carry on then this is what it must do to survive. right or wrong.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('richardmmm', '
')watch oil drop like a rock whilst all the surcharges and increased prices stay in every industry. it is a price increase exercise, a way of stripping money out of the middle classes, no one can complain, no one can say a word against it, what you gonna do about it ? you can always buy a bicycle..............


buying a bicycle really isnt an option in the US. such is the structural problem of the suburbs. it's mandatory motoring as far as the eye can see.
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Re: peak oil = nasdaq 1999 - peak oil is not contrarian

Unread postby gt1370a » Sat 20 Aug 2005, 11:37:04

First of all, almost everyone in the mainstream media has for years been saying that oil is a bubble, that high prices are unjustified, etc., basically everything you've been saying. By no means is peak oil accepted in the mainstream and "untouchable" as you suggest.

Second of all, I doubt that very many people on this board will come and "slam" you. We don't give a shit anymore. You think you're the first person to say this? Do some background research on these forums. Everything you've said has been hashed and re-hashed a thousand times on these boards. If you don't get it by now, well it's too late for you. No one wants to waste the time re-inventing the same old tired discussions. Just read the old posts and make up your own damn mind. The rest of us want to discuss how to protect our finances, how to improve our energy efficiency, how to grow our food.... you know, things that we all ought to be doing anyway, aside from peak oil.
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Re: peak oil = nasdaq 1999 - peak oil is not contrarian

Unread postby whiteknight » Sat 20 Aug 2005, 11:43:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('richardmmm', '
')why the hell do you think they invaded iraq

well obviously before the exercise began they needed to make sure that a mad crazed dictator, even one that was more or less contained didn't get his hands on an extra $50M USD everyday x 365 days a year. That's a lot of cruise misslies to lob at israel right there..


Actualy Saddam was seriously talking about selling oil for Euros instead of Dollars. This would have reduced the foriegn need for dollars making more of them come home to roost and thus driveing up inflation. Also he had quite a stock of american dollars, which we managed to collect and make dissapear without our economy suffering the inflation of their being spent.

To be honest I'm not sure how much good this did for Israel... They are having to pull back to the UN sanctioned borders. That is a disturbing story.. forcing folks out fo their homes and for what? Those people coudl live under Palestinain rule if they wanted to. But the Israel govt is treating their citizens like Palestinans... Shows thier true colors in my book, Brown and Grey if you take my meaning...
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Re: peak oil = nasdaq 1999 - peak oil is not contrarian

Unread postby bobcousins » Sat 20 Aug 2005, 13:19:48

I wonder how many years of declining oil production we will see before the last peak oil denier finally concedes that oil output is declining. I suspect that even then there will be people who will say it is just a conspiracy and they are hiding vast reserves of oil.

Like the trees on Easter Island, the Dodo, the passenger pigeon, countless other species and resources depleted, humans just love to consume. And when they have used it up, they shrug their shoulders and start on something else.
It's all downhill from here
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Re: peak oil = nasdaq 1999 - peak oil is not contrarian

Unread postby whereagles » Sat 20 Aug 2005, 18:15:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bobcousins', 'I') wonder how many years of declining oil production we will see before the last peak oil denier finally concedes that oil output is declining.

The same nr. of years it will take the US government to admit global warming exists :P
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Re: peak oil = nasdaq 1999 - peak oil is not contrarian

Unread postby richardmmm » Sat 20 Aug 2005, 20:02:12

point i was trying to make is that the world is full of crooked salesman and dogey insurance sellers.

oil costs pennies to produce, in order to sell it for $60 a barrel, you need to create a lot of sales hype.

a pair of jeans costs a dollar to make in china, but you happily pay $200 in the high street because it has some signature label on it and you are under some kind illusion that you desperately need them.

oil is the same, there is no justification for such a high price without a great deal of hype and hysteria.

we are not fighting over barrels of oil yet, the price is just going up on the fact that we might be short at some unknown point in the future.

there are many alternatives and a great deal of what is going in is simply a good sales pitch.

it's not a conspiracy, it's simply good salesmanship. If I had a major oil field or refinery and I could run up the price by announcing some production outage or disruption then I would be doing the exact same thing.
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Re: peak oil = nasdaq 1999 - peak oil is not contrarian

Unread postby richardmmm » Sat 20 Aug 2005, 20:30:27

http://jlnlabs.imars.com/index.htm

take a look at this site, this is not some conspiracy junk, this is hard science with details all laid out, mathematics and things you can even rig up at home.

there are plenty of alternatives to oil, it is ignorance to say that there aren't.

the world was considered flat 500 years ago and people were put to death if they thought overwise. the dogma of the day was preserved to maintain power over the masses............does anything ever change ??

i have a degree in geology from one of the finest institutions on the planet and geologists can make watery statements like oil might peak in 2035. it is meaningless. Geology in terms of measuring what is actually underground in the layers is a very inexact science.

the science of the past was flawed and also repressed to maintain dogams that held the power stucture in place, it is not a conspiracy, it is basic socio-psychology............. the science of today is still flawed and people still refuse to admit mistakes or acknowledge new discoveries.

there are papers coming out lately that prove that oil is not a fossil fuel at all but a product of high pressure and the break down of carbonates in the upper mantle. again this is not some conspiracy tripe, although you can find plenty of misinformed pseudo sites proclaiming all kinds of things, there is genuine stuff amongst it.

whilst the geology of strata themselves is always vague, the pressures and temperatures and compositions are well documented and with modern technology can be recreated in a lab, more the realm of physics and chemistry.

http://www.gasresources.net/energy_resources.htm

http://www.physicsweb.org/articles/news/8/9/9/1

http://www.energybulletin.net/2098.html

Oil is not running out, it is a sales pitch.

There is not one shread of real evidence that oil is a fossil fuel. It is a dogma from the roll over that took place after coal. Coal is a fossil fuel it contains the remanants of peat, organic debris, etc. cooked up under pressure. Oil as a liquid was assumed to be formed in the same way and some contaminants found in some of the early reserves were used to prop up the idea in the 1800s that oil was also a fossil fuel. Scientists postulate, that is all they can do really no one actually knew for sure.

It becomes the dogma of the day and is jolly convenient for banging out over priced product, despite what more modern finds are saying.
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Re: peak oil = nasdaq 1999 - peak oil is not contrarian

Unread postby CrudeAwakening » Sat 20 Aug 2005, 21:14:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('richardmmm', '
')there are plenty of alternatives to oil, it is ignorance to say that there aren't.


If there's really no such thing as peak oil, the availability of alternatives is irrelevant. Make up your mind.
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Re: peak oil = nasdaq 1999 - peak oil is not contrarian

Unread postby gt1370a » Sat 20 Aug 2005, 23:03:37

Let's see, is there more money in the energy sector, or in all other sectors of the economy combined? And if you wanted to make a shitload of money, would you do it by driving up the price of oil so the energy sector does well, or by driving it down so all the other sectors do well?

Why do you think Bill Clinton was letting oil out of the SPR at the end of his term to drive gas down to $1 a gallon? Why do you think the Saudis have trillions of dollars in the US stock market and have worked for decades to keep the price of oil low?

If there was a conspiracy by the oil industry, it would be to tell everyone "Oil will never run out! Keep spending, keep pumping money into the market!" because that's where the real money is. Maybe that's what's going on with this abiotic oil BS that Richtard keeps spouting. He said he's a petroleum geologist after all...

And you know what else, whether the current situation is peak oil related, or is a temporary supply/demand issue, or a conspiracy, it wouldn't change a damn thing I'm doing.... name one thing that would be different.

I hope it turns out that Richtard is right and I look like a fool. But if that happens, then I just look like a fool. If he's wrong and we're unprepared - upheaval.
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Re: peak oil = nasdaq 1999 - peak oil is not contrarian

Unread postby Raxozanne » Sun 21 Aug 2005, 06:02:06

An oil conspiracy that hurts the economy just doesn't make any sense. The government wouldn't have it.
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Re: peak oil = nasdaq 1999 - peak oil is not contrarian

Unread postby seldom_seen » Sun 21 Aug 2005, 06:31:33

richardmmm, no doubt oil companies, futures traders, and politicians will try to take advantage of the shituation for their own ends.

However, when you're at the bookstore next time, pick up a copy of Matt Simmon's Twilight in the Desert and look at the map of the Saudi oil fields.

You'll see that Gwahar, the world's largest oil field is just a speck in the desert. Sure it's a good size speck but just a speck. Now back up to a world map and the speck is so small you can't see it.

Point being is that the earth's gas tank just isn't that big, and the gauge is starting to tilt toward E.
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Re: peak oil = nasdaq 1999 - peak oil is not contrarian

Unread postby Aaron » Sun 21 Aug 2005, 07:31:05

http://wizardmachine.com/

And what exactly do you do for a living Richard?
The problem is, of course, that not only is economics bankrupt, but it has always been nothing more than politics in disguise... economics is a form of brain damage.

Hazel Henderson
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