[Pfish]

Yet another article by Featherstone

http://www.lewrockwell.com/featherstone ... one37.html

He has two good points and one debatable: Of all the people this board should try and form a dialogue with, it would be Featherstone and friends who have different views on PO. To insult somebody in the business as deep as Featherstone, is absurd.

Secondly, we (POilers) should all go long on oil contracts and make a bundle! I am grateful PO has opened me up to so many great books. Investment in the PO environment has been one of the more eye opening reads of the day. Personally, I have shorted the market. But hey! If you believe in PO, go long on futures contracts and make a mint!

Lastly, although contracts focus primarily on the short term, it does not mean they are not going to rise in the future. Just because a December 2011 contract stands at $58.60 today (what were Dec 2011 contracts 2 years ago?), doesn't mean they can't sky rocket in the future. This argument offers no support that PO is not coming. Prices reflect an open market bidding process. That is all.

I do enjoy Featherstone's insight.....

[FoxV]

well like most analysts of our current situation Feathersome just scratchtes the surface like most other do, and never actually explains the underlying root problems.

Why do we have tight supplies? Because we are not finding new oil, and what we do find is difficult to pump
Why do we have refinerys blowing up? Because the oil they're processing is lower quality than they can handle

anyways, his final statement
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')f you're right, you make your bets wisely and profit handsomely...
...Do it. Prove us wrong. And save the world..

[Free]

That idiot can't even spell Hubbert ("Hubbard") right - (just joking, read the article, very interesting).

I do think the dialogue with the sceptics and anti-peakers is very valuable for Peak Oilers because this is where we can learn the most. Otherwise we are just caught in a feedback loop where we cannibalize our own opinions over and over again.
But I do also think that if there are people who argue that there won't be a peak, are somehow lost and "insane" as they try to argue against simple laws of nature which every 4 year old can understand.

It's a question of "when", not "if", and about this question there is indeed a lot of room for arguments.

[Kez]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pfish', 'S')econdly, we (POilers) should all go long on oil contracts and make a bundle!

[jimmydean]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Kez', '
')The problem with this idea from my perspective, is that in 5-8 years you also have a good chance of losing 100% of your investment. You have to assume that all the systems in place now will be in place then, and someone who believes that PO is going to cause total collapse shouldn't expect any market or currency to be worth much by then.

There is no telling what the next decade holds, and it could very well be that the government seizes all oil imports for its own use, or any other number of things that are contrary to the system of economics that are in place today. I think most POilers are already 'putting their money where their mouth is' by preparing for the future with wise assets and skills that cost a lot of money and time.

[MicroHydro]

I have enjoyed a 50% ROI over the past 5 months based on peak oil theory. Maybe PO theory contains many uncertainties, but it has been lucrative for me so far. I bought 2011 at $46, it is over $57 today. The investments in Vestas, SolarWorld, and AngloPlatinum have also rocked.

[BabyPeanut]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')o, the truth is that too many of you peak oilers believe far too much in the efficacy and power of government.

[pip]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Kez', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pfish', 'S')econdly, we (POilers) should all go long on oil contracts and make a bundle!

[Z]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BabyPeanut', 'A')h, you got us! That's us in a nutshell. Sheesh, what an out-of-touch-with-the-way-Peak-Oilists-doomers-are person.

[BrownDog]

The article seems to be stating that Peak Oilers are obsessed with the current, short-term price of crude oil, and that they think it is synonymous with global peak oil production. There may be some that are, but I didn't think that was the majority.

This site has shown me that Peak Oilers are quite aware of other forces (besides geological ones) on oil prices, and keep them in mind. There's nothing new in that article that I haven't already seen discussed here. The connection between events like those in the article, and their effect on oil prices has definitely been taken into consideration by the Peak Oilers here, anyway.

And Peak Oilers also know that the data is not complete or reliable, so predicting the peak with absolute certainty isn't really the point. Sure, there are some big names throwing around dates, they all seem to me to be admitting that they're just estimates.

Now, I'll try to keep my manners, and will give him the benefit of the doubt, but I think he's arguing against points that aren't really key to the issue of Peak Oil. Perhaps he got that impression of what the points were from a misguided email. If so, then I assert that is an improper extrapolation from such limited evidence.

BTW, he's not the only one to attempt to counter PO this way.