[Leanan]

Traffic is increasing faster than we can build roads to accommodate it. Even small cities are not immune: link

In a few places, the road-building is almost catching up to traffic growth: "They've been getting worse, but they've been getting worse slower than everyone else. In the bizarre world of transportation mobility, that's progress."

I fear that's the best we can hope for in a post-peak world: getting worse slower than everyone else.

[airstrip1]

In London the congestion charge has reduced the volume of traffic. Before its introduction journey times by car were no faster than they were one hundred years ago when most vehicles were horse drawn. I honestly believe that a large number of people in the world would prefer world war with the risk of nuclear annihilation rather than give up their automobiles and use public transport.

[buster]

I'd never heard of the congestion charge before, so here's a link for anyone else as dumb as me:

http://www.cclondon.com/whatis.shtml

Can't see Americans going for this. OTOH, building roads when we're running outta oil sounds like a good way to waste resources.

[lowem]

The Singapore government is attempting to limit annual traffic growth to 3% (or thereabouts) by hitting where it hurts - the wallet. Over here, for every real car you buy for yourself, you pay the equivalent of two more cars in taxes. It's a roaring business for the government, this brings in at least 2 billion dollars a year.

The congestion charges? This was implemented after London officials made some trips to Singapore some time back. From the site, I see that the procedure is a little different (pre-payment and optical recognition instead of per-entry wireless cashcard deduction), but the principle is about the same.

[Guest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lowem', 'T')he Singapore government is attempting to limit annual traffic growth to 3% (or thereabouts) by hitting where it hurts - the wallet. Over here, for every real car you buy for yourself, you pay the equivalent of two more cars in taxes. It's a roaring business for the government, this brings in at least 2 billion dollars a year.

[lowem]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Anonymous', 'H')ow the heck does that help with congestion? Say I have 5 cars, I can only drive one at a time so owning 5 doesn't contribute to the congestion at all as the other 4 are parked at home.

[lowem]

I meant to say, either pretty-well-to-do, or in a heck of a big chunk of debt. Unfortunately, no prizes for guessing which category I fall into

[NevadaGhosts]

Here's an interesting article about traffic jams now spreading to smaller US cities and towns: link

[airstrip1]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')ypical liberal socialistic government scheme.

[backstop]

Congestion charging in London, IMHO, does nothing significant to resolve the depletion problem as it is focussed on the symptom (local vehicle density) rather than the cause (centralized remote livelihoods/production centres etc). In effect it merely coerces people into driving further to find a (previously) uncongested bit of road.

By contrast, an annually-declining tradable transport-fuel ration could address the cause in several ways.

First, business planners could foresee rising transport costs justifying investment in decentralized production.

Second, it would bring home to the whole population that the issue of depletion is unavoidable & urgent (the equity of all adults having a tradable ration would help to minimize denial).

Third, it would progressively reduce avoidable road transport.

Fourth, any state using it (and facing the possible rise of production costs) has a greater motive to accept binding international agreement to cut fossil fuel usage so competitors do not gain an advantage.

This is of course a non-starter unless and until we elect politicians with the foresight to see where we're headed.

regards,

Backstop

[CarnbY]

According to this Reuters news article, AAA does not believe high prices will reduce gas consumption... Of course it will have to eventually, but how high will prices have to go before people start driving less? What do we know about this from the past?

[zceb90]

UK pump prices are around $6.10 per US gallon; prices in other EU countries are a little lower but typically over $5. These prices have not stopped driving; folks have gotten used to them over time but many have purchased fuel economical vehicles and consumption of 40+ mpg (US) is not uncommon in Europe. Diesel vehicles also sell well in view of their superior fuel economy. Distances in Europe are generally a lot shorter than US and we have a much more comprehensive public transport network especially rail.

On above basis it's a lot easier for EU to handle increase gasoline prices than US. There are, however, some quick and cheap economies which US drivers can make. Car pooling and agreeing with employers to work 1 day per week from home using electronic communication are 2 examples.

As US pump prices climb from $2 / gallon towards $3 / gallon many drivers will probably pay up, after all prices will still be less than half EU prices. The overall effect of much higher energy prices on consumers will be a different matter entirely as rising cost of food and energy will leave less discretionary spending. Recession is the most likely outcome leading to less numbers in work; this in turn will reduce both commuting and leisure journeys.

[hull3551]

I think the sustained price increase will not impact driving for a bit.

For example, people will realize the additional $100 that the more expensive fuel impacts their budget and will gradually make changes - most notably in choosing the next vehicle they purchase, which will impact the US automakers that rely so heavily on the high-margin land yachts they sell. We saw it already in GM's earnings.

This elevated price may be the factor that drives the US into (another) recession or sends housing prices tumbling.

[No-Oil]

All well and good adjusting your budget for a $100 gas price variation today, but what happens when the housing bubble bursts & those people get written off because of burgeoning debt ?

Most people I know live within their means, but its close to the limit, they can cope with small changes immediately & larger changes over time. Unfortunately this will not necessarily be gradual, its a rapid change in costs that will cause most people problems. if you have spare discretionary income you can cope, if you can re-allocate some of your committed decreationary income, i.e stop a hobbie that costs money, then you can cope. If you have zero flexability & the poorest people are usually those in this situation, then something will have to give & often that will bankrupt people.

Comparing the US & Europe is pointless, technically we earn more money than the US employee to cover the crazy tax loaded costs we have to pay, but we get a return on that tax through public services. We are used to $5 fuel, the US is not. Our way of life is based around fairly expensive fuel (compared to the rest of the world) the US is not. A 20% increase on a $5 gallon in Europe is much easier to swallow, than a 1 or 200% increase in the US !

[chris-h]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('CarnbY', 'A')ccording to this Reuters news article, AAA does not believe high prices will reduce gas consumption... Of course it will have to eventually, but how high will prices have to go before people start driving less? What do we know about this from the past?

[JoeW]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('CarnbY', 'A')AA does not believe high prices will reduce gas consumption... Of course it will have to eventually, but how high will prices have to go before people start driving less? What do we know about this from the past?

[hull3551]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JoeW', '.')..many pay for their gas with credit cards at the pump because it is convenient. Therefore, the pain of high gas prices is easily put off until another day...

[skiwi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('CarnbY', ' ')What do we know about this from the past?

[nocar]

Automobile associations always argue that driving cars is so important that people will pay for it no matter what. They are not interested in making any real analyses.

What level of price increases did the AAA had in mind? Certainly the high price in Europe compared to hte USA (about three times more, or 300 percent) can account for the more frugal use of gasoline in Europe. But if the AAA has just a 10 percent increase in mind (which automobile people usually think is a lot) it probably will not make much difference, that I will admit.

In another thread I read that Thailand is going the opposite route from Europe and is subsidizing diesel, in order to prevent the high petroleum price from slowing economic growth. I have also read about unrest in Indonesia, because the government no longer can afford to subsidize kerosene for cooking. So instead of encouraging petroleum savings, these governments tries/have tried to encourage petroleum consumption!

Guess who will be in trouble when petroleum reaches 100 dollars/barrel.

[frankthetank]

yet atleast..

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/7296560/

[quote]“When people are paying $1 million for a bus, they aren't asking about the price of gas,â€