[doufus]

Have you ever considered:

1. That PO might force you to know your neighbours. Not car pooling could lead to impounding your car. You may even regain the neighbourhood
you lost.

2. Energy hungry machines may be shut down for more human labour. More employment, less crime, drugs etc.

3. Energy won't be wasted on trivial products like the latest kid's
craze or entertainment tool. We might produce REAL crafted goods that last and that do meaningful things again. This is better than the mass produced throw away amusements we build now.

4. We might base these jobs in our own countries rather than exploiting
3rd world women to produce transient crap that we throw into landfills.

5. These domestic, skilled jobs might be valued beyond a paypacket. We
may have pride in work and skill and retain those skills rather than looking
for the next way to automate, deskill and export jobs to low pay
sweat shops. These employees may pay tax, invest in homes and
kids instead of guns and drugs.

6. We may value energy for what it's worth. Turn off lights. conserve
water. We value beer more than fuel.

7. We may grow healthier food in the yard and get exercise as well.

8. We may walk and cycle more. America the obese is an international
obscenity. Billions would be saved on chronic disease costs-
hypertension, diabetes, hard disease. Surgery and medication costs
would plummet.

9. Limited transportation options mean we stay at home and talk. TV's are licensed and use regulated. We may get to talk to our children again-
even if they still don't want to!

10. People who build, design and create will be more valued than
people who spin financial lies, trade abstractions in an abstract
market, or produce nothing but hot air broadcast to millions of fat people
eating the pizze they drove to get.

Can't be that bad!!!

[Aaron]

Hope you have on a flame retardant suit... you're gonna need it with this post I promise.

---------------------------------------------------

I suppose you're right in a way though.

The survivors will enjoy a better life than we have today probably.

Of course, the millions who won't make it might feel differently.

[freelight]

these are the very reasons, i believe, that you find so many peakers who WANT the current way of life to collapse. we do too much crap in the name of money, and therefore we're going against the way of life. i think it stems from fear. greed stems from fear, whether we know it or not. we're afraid to do what's right because it might cost us our life (ironicly we're willing to risk our life to do the wrong thing many times, i guess as long as it's the badass thing to do for 'honor'), livelihood or make us look sensitive and therefore vulnerable. we've done things to get power, fame, and legacy.
i'm not afraid of die off if it means we can save the majority of species and decency on the only planet we know of that can sustain life. (unless you know something I don't)
not that i'm all about 'bringing it on' - we need to do what we can, where and when we can to prevent disaster.

[whiteknight]

If this sounds flamey, I appologise, it's not my intent.

First off, let me say I do think we are headed for a peak in oil production, not certain how long till then. Most of the recent per barrel price spike is related to the increase in gas prices. Whenever gas prices spike investors get nervous and buy into the futures thus driving up prices in the short term. But while the Saudi feilds are likely peaked there are others that are not and some new feilds coming online. Also as the price rises it becomes more cost effective to bring less produictive feilds online again... But I suspect you all know these things already. If not there was a great article a buddy sent me over at LewRockwell.com on the subject.

Also I have a rather low opinion of humainty, which explains my delusions of Dukehood, so I do think when the shit hits the fan many will get stupid. However the "Great Dieoff" that many hold to like some sort of backwards "Left Behind" is not on the horizon as far as I am concerned. Too many folks with delusions of Dukehood like mine will keep the suits and boobs alive for their slave or peasant labor abilities.

Also we have to keep in mind, when production peaks there are plenty of nations who will not be affected as seriously. Look over the charts on Mexico or Canada, they make more than they use. There will still be a world economy that we will have to play with. China will have a damned potent economy and will be playing the tune we will have to dance to.

So we will have to deal with them. What will we do to reestablish trade with them after the dollar is in the toilet? In the 30's Germany exported scrap metals to try and acheive a trade balance. Likely anyone looking to do that will be real popular with the Powers That Be. Any kind of production will be rewarded by the PTB's with as much lavishness as they can manage. At the least they will allow me my Dukhood over processing trash heaps for their scrap metals, at the worst they will actively subsidize far worse endevors and screw the planet.

Wanna dig coal out of the hills of west virgina with the most brutal land rapeing methods ever seen? Go for it, just make sure the governor gets his cut. Wanna make oil from tar sands by burning the nastiest sulpher coal for heating the vats? As long as the local politcos get a peice of the action then go for it. Whatever it takes to turn out an exportable product will be tolerated and encouraged.

Peak Oil will not lead to a better world. It will lead to a horrible world where any means neccisary will replace the rule of law. It will lead to a world where you will have to carve out a niche for you and yours with the blood of others unless you want to be crushed by those neccisary means.

Carpooling, walking, cycling? More like grubbing out an existance without modern conviences. Growing your own food and chatting around the house instead of TV? More likely you can look forward to fighting off and killing groups of starving people who you just cant manage to share your food with. Craftsmen and laborers having greater value? How about people working in horribly unsafe conditions to dig resources out of the ground without any protections.

Pull back for a moment and think about it. Where will the kindhearted loving folks come from to make this wonderful world? These are the same greedy backstabbers who screw eachohter over for corner offices we are talking about. How will oil going away make people better? How will sitting in a cold dark house make things better?

[doufus]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('whiteknight', 'I')f this sounds flamey, I appologise, it's not my intent.

First off, let me say I do think we are headed for a peak in oil production, not certain how long till then. Most of the recent per barrel price spike is related to the increase in gas prices. Whenever gas prices spike investors get nervous and buy into the futures thus driving up prices in the short term. But while the Saudi feilds are likely peaked there are others that are not and some new feilds coming online. Also as the price rises it becomes more cost effective to bring less produictive feilds online again... But I suspect you all know these things already. If not there was a great article a buddy sent me over at LewRockwell.com on the subject.

Also I have a rather low opinion of humainty, which explains my delusions of Dukehood, so I do think when the shit hits the fan many will get stupid. However the "Great Dieoff" that many hold to like some sort of backwards "Left Behind" is not on the horizon as far as I am concerned. Too many folks with delusions of Dukehood like mine will keep the suits and boobs alive for their slave or peasant labor abilities.

Also we have to keep in mind, when production peaks there are plenty of nations who will not be affected as seriously. Look over the charts on Mexico or Canada, they make more than they use. There will still be a world economy that we will have to play with. China will have a damned potent economy and will be playing the tune we will have to dance to.

So we will have to deal with them. What will we do to reestablish trade with them after the dollar is in the toilet? In the 30's Germany exported scrap metals to try and acheive a trade balance. Likely anyone looking to do that will be real popular with the Powers That Be. Any kind of production will be rewarded by the PTB's with as much lavishness as they can manage. At the least they will allow me my Dukhood over processing trash heaps for their scrap metals, at the worst they will actively subsidize far worse endevors and screw the planet.

Wanna dig coal out of the hills of west virgina with the most brutal land rapeing methods ever seen? Go for it, just make sure the governor gets his cut. Wanna make oil from tar sands by burning the nastiest sulpher coal for heating the vats? As long as the local politcos get a peice of the action then go for it. Whatever it takes to turn out an exportable product will be tolerated and encouraged.

Peak Oil will not lead to a better world. It will lead to a horrible world where any means neccisary will replace the rule of law. It will lead to a world where you will have to carve out a niche for you and yours with the blood of others unless you want to be crushed by those neccisary means.

Carpooling, walking, cycling? More like grubbing out an existance without modern conviences. Growing your own food and chatting around the house instead of TV? More likely you can look forward to fighting off and killing groups of starving people who you just cant manage to share your food with. Craftsmen and laborers having greater value? How about people working in horribly unsafe conditions to dig resources out of the ground without any protections.

Pull back for a moment and think about it. Where will the kindhearted loving folks come from to make this wonderful world? These are the same greedy backstabbers who screw eachohter over for corner offices we are talking about. How will oil going away make people better? How will sitting in a cold dark house make things better?

[whiteknight]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('doufus', '
')I'm not rosy about human nature. Quite the opposite. I think people
act in their own self interest -including incumbent governments-and allowing a feudal lord to gain power is not in anyone's interests.
Will they have the power to stop it? You bet. The troops will be fed
and so will their families. Energy will be prioritised. I'm not saying
we would be without authoriatarian gov/t. Quite the opposite. But
the likelihood of mad max happening is remote.

[doufus]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('whiteknight', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('doufus', '
')I'm not rosy about human nature. Quite the opposite. I think people
act in their own self interest -including incumbent governments-and allowing a feudal lord to gain power is not in anyone's interests.
Will they have the power to stop it? You bet. The troops will be fed
and so will their families. Energy will be prioritised. I'm not saying
we would be without authoriatarian gov/t. Quite the opposite. But
the likelihood of mad max happening is remote.

[whiteknight]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('doufus', '
')However, Duke's are usually appointed on high and not amongst the
lowly. That is, in the unlikely event that a feudal system breaks out,
your Duke will be a buddy of the Grand Gumball-possibly a relative
or at least a TRUSTED corrupt confidante of the people at the higher
level. I hope you have kissed the Gumball's behind to this point.
It may not be enough. In fact the Gumball isn't even in sight right
now. He just emerges after the usual bloodletting.

[doufus]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('whiteknight', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('doufus', '
')However, Duke's are usually appointed on high and not amongst the
lowly. That is, in the unlikely event that a feudal system breaks out,
your Duke will be a buddy of the Grand Gumball-possibly a relative
or at least a TRUSTED corrupt confidante of the people at the higher
level. I hope you have kissed the Gumball's behind to this point.
It may not be enough. In fact the Gumball isn't even in sight right
now. He just emerges after the usual bloodletting.

[medicvet]

I really think that both of you can be right to some extent. Perhaps you are looking at this like the blind man and the elephant..each looking at things from a different perspective, and envisioning a different future, when the truth is likely to be some kind of combination of both the rosy and the grim outlook, depending upon which region you live and who's in charge in that region, and how prepared that region is.

I think it would be feasible to see a return of the 'citystate', and previous state and even federal power would not always be able to maintain control..nor would they want to..they might have other fish to fry..such as keeping our borders secure.

I think that some rural areas might be better prepared than others, simply because if people are far enough away from a city when the shit really begins to hit the fan then a mass exodus of people from major cities wouldn't have that many actually reach them..the majority would either be killed or starve to death before actually getting too far. Also, I think that it is more than possible that our govt. would see this coming and use our own soldiers to prevent those in the cities from leaving them..after all, if there are only so many crops, there have to be ways to insure that the priviliged are the ones who get them.

I have given some thought to Peak Oil ever since I heard about it. I think that we will see things gradually increase in their severity, which would allow all but the most farsighted to remain complacent until it is too late. I live in a very small town, and while I don't own my own home but am 'renting to own' from my parents in a small rural town, however they have a place with ten acres or so in the country and since they have talked about moving back to California, I am hoping to convince them to transfer the money I am putting in into that place and have them sell me the one with more land. That is still around 5-7 years away. Until then I do keep a store of food in case of emergencies (living through an ice storm the first winter I moved out here taught me to be prepared for any contingency.) and am trying to learn as much as I can of things that I think might come in handy.

One of them is brewing my own beer. Someone lamented that beer is more valued than fuel..well, I just so happen to think that's as it should be.

[whiteknight]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('medicvet', ' ') I really think that both of you can be right to some extent. Perhaps you are looking at this like the blind man and the elephant..

[BrownDog]

I think it's important to realize these kinds of "improvements" as things that could cloud one's judgements of the facts. There's a lot about modern society that I wish would change, and I know PO is going to undermine it. But I have to remind myself not to let that desire act as blinders to the actual realities. If you come here to learn more, then being aware of your own feelings will help your learning. Being controlled by them will skew your perception.

[medicvet]

I make a halfway decent hefewiesen myself. You know there will come a point in time when a decent beer will be more valued than a dom perignon..and as potent..which again, is as it should be.

And one of the things that is DEFINITELY going to be missed is the current availability of health care. That too will change over time. Hopefully, immunizations will continue to be viewed as important as they are..

But some of the advances we are making in research are going to be heavily curtailed over time, unfortunately.

[whiteknight]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('medicvet', 'H')opefully, immunizations will continue to be viewed as important as they are..

[medicvet]

might have to agree with you there.

dammit..long term thinking..

i hate portapottys but they might beat the alternative..

[aldente]

Your title says "PO might be our salvation". Did I enter the wrong forum here? Did Jehovas witnesses take over here or what? Rapture anyone? This rat starts to smell. The board seems to mutate into a religions kind of group. I'm out!

[Macsporan]

I believe that certain aspects of PO, which I do not believe will result in billions of excess deaths in the next century at least in the developed world, will be more satisfactory than what we have now.

These include:

Full employment

Greater sense of community

Less Advertising

Less Greed

Less Materialism

Less Pollution

Less Environmental Destruction

Less Television

Greater Physical fitness

Less Obesity

Less Degenerative Disease

Closer family life

Deeper Spiritual Life

Smaller military budgets

More Trains!!!

[whiteknight]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Macsporan', ' ') I believe that certain aspects of PO, which I do not believe will result in billions of excess deaths in the next century at least in the developed world, will be more satisfactory than what we have now.

[spudbuddy]

I admit I lean at little toward the side of "peak oil salvation" myself.

Why is it...that downscaling has to mean abolutely everything going down the drain?
I can understand that concept from Wall Street's point of view (as limited as my understanding of high finance is.)
But on a social level...I just don't get it.

I still believe that capitalism is like a bad guard dog with big teeth and a ravenous appetite on a leash that's way too long (if the dog hasn't already gnawed through it.)

We wouldn't be in this position if reasonable limits to growth had been set up a long time ago. They weren't...in fact, the opposite happened.
It looks to me like a religious dogma...you have to grow grow grow or you die.
Why?
Either we solve this thing, or it solves us (as planetary parasites); there really is no 3rd choice in the matter. (being rescued by ET is not an option.)
Perhaps part of the whole gloom and doomer scenario is the idea of everything becoming smaller, scaled back...less on the plate.
Imagine the major leagues of baseball scaling back to 18 teams again, all up in the northeast, all traveling by train. For example.

No...I don't want to hear rabid frothing howls about how baseball will disappear...(I can imagine that night games will, though.)

It's the all or nothing kind of mentality.....what rules demand that?
The mind boggles, when one begins to imagine the kind of changes that may become possible, in how we do things, and what our world looks like.

Sadly...not because our better natures took over, but because we were priced out of the market.

[Macsporan]

Thank you Spudbuddy. That is my take on things entirely.

The extreme Doomer mentality is based on ignorance, lack of imagination and a sort of hysterical paranioa: the American way of life or Stalinism, the 3000 mile Salad or cannibalism, everything or nothing.

It is the scream of the spoiled brat who can't have anymore chocolates.

We need to accept that we can cope with the crisis and devote our thoughts to the details.